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Author: Jeremy Piger
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Economic time-series data is commonly categorized into a discrete number of persistent regimes. I survey a variety of approaches for real-time prediction of these regimes and the turning points between them, where these predictions are formed in a data-rich environment. I place particular emphasis on supervised machine learning classification techniques that are common to the statistical classification literature, but have only recently begun to be widely used in economics. I also survey Markov-switching models, which are commonly used for unsupervised classification of economic data. The approaches surveyed are computationally feasible when applied to large datasets, and the machine learning algorithms employ regularization and cross-validation to prevent overfitting in the face of many predictors. A subset of the approaches conduct model selection automatically in forming predictions. I present an application to real-time identification of U.S. business cycle turning points based on a wide dataset of 136 macroeconomic and financial time-series.
Author: Jeremy Piger
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Economic time-series data is commonly categorized into a discrete number of persistent regimes. I survey a variety of approaches for real-time prediction of these regimes and the turning points between them, where these predictions are formed in a data-rich environment. I place particular emphasis on supervised machine learning classification techniques that are common to the statistical classification literature, but have only recently begun to be widely used in economics. I also survey Markov-switching models, which are commonly used for unsupervised classification of economic data. The approaches surveyed are computationally feasible when applied to large datasets, and the machine learning algorithms employ regularization and cross-validation to prevent overfitting in the face of many predictors. A subset of the approaches conduct model selection automatically in forming predictions. I present an application to real-time identification of U.S. business cycle turning points based on a wide dataset of 136 macroeconomic and financial time-series.
Author: Peter Fuleky
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030311503
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 716
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Book Description
This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.
Author: Richard J. Hanson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Differential equations
Languages : en
Pages : 174
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Book Description
Author: Mauro F. Guillén
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139577042
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 193
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Book Description
The twenty-first century is replete with uncertainty and complexity: game-changing events and trends are transforming the world beyond recognition. For the first time in human history more people live in cities than in the countryside and greater numbers suffer from obesity than from hunger. Emerging economies now represent half of the global economy and during the next few decades India will be the biggest country in terms of population, China the largest in output and the United States the richest among the major economies on a per capita income basis. Food and water shortages will likely become humankind's most important challenge. In this accessible introduction, Mauro Guillén and Emilio Ontiveros deploy the tools of economics, sociology and political science to provide an analytical perspective on both the problems and opportunities facing business in the modern world.
Author: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN: 1616405414
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 692
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Book Description
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.
Author: Holger Janusch
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
ISBN: 311127294X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 307
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Book Description
Turning Points: Challenges for Western Democracies in the 21st Century centers around the strikingly under-researched concept of turning points and its application in political science, including various theories, fields, and sub-disciplines. The chapters provide theoretical discussion and conceptual clarity by distinguishing a set of turning points at different analytical levels. Based on a wide range of case studies, the authors illustrate where, when and how different types of turning points occur (or not) against the backdrop of current challenges in and for Western democracies. The conceptual and empirical variety of the volume allows scholars and practitioners in policymaking to develop and apply their own frameworks when dealing with turning point dynamics.
Author: Ullrich Heilemann
Publisher: Duncker & Humblot
ISBN: 342852425X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 168
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Book Description
The analysis of cyclical macroeconomic phenomena is an important field of econometric research. In the recent past, research interests have de-emphasized quantitative forecasting exercises and have addressed the qualitative diagnosis of the relative stance of the economy regarding »upswing«, »recession«, or »boom« periods, i. e. the classification of the state of the economy into a limited number of discrete states. In this context the principal challenge is to reduce the multifaceted and sometimes abundant quantitative information about the business cycle to such qualitative statements in an efficient way. For more than six years this task was the focus of the project »Multivariate determination and analysis of business cycles« within the SFB 475 »Reduction of complexity in multivariate data structures«, funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). The necessity for complexity reduction is, of course, not unique to business cycle analysis but is studied in many fields and in a number of ways. This broad interest in the reduction of problem dimensionality and in the appropriate combination of data and of theory caused the RWI Essen and the Statistical Department of the University of Dortmund in January 2002 to hold a workshop at the RWI Essen where the findings of this and similar projects were presented and discussed. The present publication collects revised versions of the papers presented at this workshop. Although the workshop took place some five years ago, these papers mark an importent juncture in the development of business cycle research.
Author: Ian H. Gotlib
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521550758
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 324
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Book Description
This book examines the influence of early stressful experiences over the life course.
Author: Gerhard Bry
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 242
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Book Description
Study of programmed procedures in economic research and statistical method with regard to computerised analysis of cyclical turning points relative to business cycles. References.
Author: R. J. Hanson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This report classifies and simplifies turning point problems arising from second order systems of ordinary differential equations involving a small parameter. (Author).
