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Author: Howard Marks
Publisher: HarperCollins
ISBN: 1328480569
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 339
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Book Description
A NEW YORK TIMES, WALL STREET JOURNAL, AND USA TODAY BESTSELLER The legendary investor shows how to identify and master the cycles that govern the markets. We all know markets rise and fall, but when should you pull out, and when should you stay in? The answer is never black or white, but is best reached through a keen understanding of the reasons behind the rhythm of cycles. Confidence about where we are in a cycle comes when you learn the patterns of ups and downs that influence not just economics, markets, and companies, but also human psychology and the investing behaviors that result. If you study past cycles, understand their origins and remain alert for the next one, you will become keenly attuned to the investment environment as it changes. You’ll be aware and prepared while others get blindsided by unexpected events or fall victim to emotions like fear and greed. By following Marks’s insights—drawn in part from his iconic memos over the years to Oaktree’s clients—you can master these recurring patterns to have the opportunity to improve your results.
Author: Howard Marks
Publisher: HarperCollins
ISBN: 1328480569
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 339
Get Book Here
Book Description
A NEW YORK TIMES, WALL STREET JOURNAL, AND USA TODAY BESTSELLER The legendary investor shows how to identify and master the cycles that govern the markets. We all know markets rise and fall, but when should you pull out, and when should you stay in? The answer is never black or white, but is best reached through a keen understanding of the reasons behind the rhythm of cycles. Confidence about where we are in a cycle comes when you learn the patterns of ups and downs that influence not just economics, markets, and companies, but also human psychology and the investing behaviors that result. If you study past cycles, understand their origins and remain alert for the next one, you will become keenly attuned to the investment environment as it changes. You’ll be aware and prepared while others get blindsided by unexpected events or fall victim to emotions like fear and greed. By following Marks’s insights—drawn in part from his iconic memos over the years to Oaktree’s clients—you can master these recurring patterns to have the opportunity to improve your results.
Author: Jeffrey A. Hirsch
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111828349X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
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Book Description
Jeffrey Hirsch discusses how to capture market-beating returns by following specific stock market cycles While predicting the direction of the stock market at any given point is difficult, it's a fact that the market exhibits well-defined and sometimes predictable patterns. While cycles do not repeat exactly all of the time, statistical evidence suggests that cyclical tendencies are very strong and should not be ignored by investors. The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles will show you how to profit from these recurring stock market patterns and cycles. Written by Jeffrey Hirsch, President of the Hirsch Organization and Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, this reliable resource explains why these cycles occur, provides the historical evidence behind them, and shows you how to capture consistent profits from them moving forward. In addition to describing his most widely followed cycles and patters, Hirsch also discusses both longer term boom-bust economic cycles and shorter term tendencies involving the best days, weeks, and months of the year to trade the market. The methods found here follow everything from presidential election cycles to the "Santa Claus" effect Written by Jeffrey Hirsch, the pre-eminent authority on market cycles and seasonal patterns The strategies explored are easy-to-implement, and based on research that has proven profitable over the course of time For investors looking to beat the buy-and-hold philosophy, The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles will provide simple, actionable ideas that have stood the test of time and consistently outperformed the market.
Author: George K Salour
Publisher: Independently Published
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Become a Savvy Trend Trader with the Ultimate Guide to the Stock Market! In "Stock Market Trends: Understanding and Capitalizing on Market Cycles," you will embark on a fascinating journey exploring the enigmatic world of stock market trends and cycles. This comprehensive guide demystifies the complex mechanisms of the stock market and equips you with the knowledge and strategies you need to capitalize on these trends. The book starts with an in-depth introduction to the stock market, its key players, and the fundamental concepts of stocks and shares. You'll dive into the history of stock market trends and their global impact, uncovering valuable insights from the past. Moving forward, you'll delve into the intricate patterns of market cycles and the dynamism of bull and bear markets. The book elucidates various economic indicators that influence market trends and demonstrates how to interpret them effectively. As you progress, you'll master diverse analysis techniques, learn about risk management, and explore practical trading strategies that align with different market phases. The guide also teaches you how to manage your investment portfolio and shares compelling case studies of successful trend traders. The book concludes by shedding light on the art of predicting market trends and preparing for the future of trading, ensuring you're equipped to navigate the ever-evolving landscape of stock market trading. Whether you're an investing novice or an experienced trader seeking to refine your understanding of market trends, this book is an invaluable resource. It combines rigorous technical information with engaging, accessible writing and a dash of humor to keep you entertained as you learn. Grab your copy today and take the first step towards becoming a proficient trend trader in the exhilarating world of the stock market!
Author: Michael A. Alexander
Publisher: iUniverse
ISBN: 9780595132423
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
"Important reading for serious investors."-InvestorsInsight.comFor most Americans, a 401k plan is their first exposure to investing. Many of us are relying on the stock market to provide for us in our retirement yet at the same time, most of us are afraid of the stock market. It's a valid concern. How can something so important to our financial future be so completely unpredictable? When Michael Alexander first started investing in the stock market, he noticed that few analysts seemed to have much knowledge of what the market has done in the past. While no one can give precise answers to questions about the future of the market and be right all the time, Alexander feels that it's possible to gain an understanding of the future of the stock market by studying its past. Analyzing years of historical data for patterns of behavior that might repeat in the future, Alexander provides strong statistical evidence for a cyclical pattern in the stock market. These Stock Cycles show that long periods of poor stock returns have always followed long periods of good returns. Are we in for good times or is the party over?
Author: Steven E. Bolten
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN: 1567507166
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 184
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Book Description
Anyone who wants to understand stock market cycles and develop a focused, thoughtful, and solidly grounded valuation approach to the stock market must read this book. Bolten explains the causes and patterns of the cycles and identifies the causes of stock price changes. He identifies the sources of risks in the stock market and in individual stocks. Also covered is how the interaction of expected return and risk creates stock market cycles. Bolten talks about the industry sectors most likely to be profitable investments in each stage of the stock market cycles, while identifying the stock market bubble and sinkhole warning signs. The role of the Federal Reserve in each stage of the stock market cycle is also discussed. All the categories of risk are identified and explained while no specific risk is left undiscussed. The underlying causes for long-term stock price trends and cycles are highlighted. The book is useful in many areas including stock analysis, portfolio management, cost of equity capital, financing strategies, business valuations and spotting profit opportunities caused by general economic and specific company changes.
Author: Jacob B.L. Smith
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bitcoin
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This dissertation is a collection of three essays applying modern time series techniques in the context of financial markets. There is a particular focus on disentangling persistent trend components from transitory cyclical dynamics. The information contained in these cyclical components is leveraged to garner insight into the broader macroeconomy. The first essay, Trend and Cycle in the Yield Curve: A Procedure for Forecasting Recessions, utilizes short-term (slope) dynamics present in the yield curve to predict impending economic downturns. Building on a large body of literature chronicling the relationship between the shape of the yield curve and the business cycle I employ Dynamic Nelson-Siegel modeling to define the level, slope, and curvature characteristics of the term structure through time. Given these dynamics, the trend and cycle are extracted using various decomposition techniques. I show that cycles present within the slope factor are extremely robust predictors of recessions, correctly identifying recessions as much as eighteen months in advance. Moreover, I develop a ``Predictive Power Score'' as a way to quantify my procedure's performance. This score demonstrates the superiority of my procedure over other common leading indicators including the yield spread. This first essay illustrates a common obstacle faced by researchers when attempting to measure cycles in real-time. Symmetric band-pass filters are estimated at the expense of data trimming, i. e. current estimates of the cycle must be sacrificed in order to construct the filtered series. Building on the work of Baxter and King (1999), Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003) construct a ``one-sided" filter which allows the practitioner to obtain estimates of the cycle in real-time. The second essay of this dissertation, Spurious Periodicity in Christiano-Fitzgerald Filtered Time Series, studies the cyclical properties of time series filtered by the Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003) filter. I show that in the presence of a stochastic trend the CF filter imposes spurious periodicity onto the filtered series, i. e. the filter imparts cyclicality where there is none. This is due to a common defect among band-pass filters which allows cyclical components of the error term to pass through the filter to the estimated cycle. In practice, this leads to cycle estimates of higher amplitude and longer duration. The third essay of this dissertation focuses on an emerging financial market which until recently has received little attention in the academic literature. An Analysis of Bitcoin Exchange Rates studies the relationship between bitcoin prices and the foreign exchange market in a way that has not been done before. I contend that the best way to think of bitcoins is as digital gold. Bitcoins are a purely electronic commodity traded for speculative purposes as well as in exchange for goods and services. Just like physical gold the relative price of bitcoins denominated in different currencies implies a nominal exchange rate. This is a departure from previous literature which treats bitcoin prices themselves as exchange rates. I argue that treating prices as exchange rates is inappropriate as one would not consider the price of physical gold to be an exchange rate. Therefore, I characterize the behavior of nominal exchange rates implied by relative bitcoin prices. I show that the implied nominal exchange rate is highly cointegrated with the nominal exchange rate determined in conventional foreign currency exchange markets. I also show that the direction of causality flows from the conventional markets to the bitcoin market and not vice-versa which can explain much of the volatility in bitcoin prices.
Author: J. M. Hurst
Publisher: Wasendorf & Associates Incorporated
ISBN: 9780934380621
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 223
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Book Description
Author: Ed Easterling
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781879384828
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
Probable outcomes continues the Crestmont Research tradition of extensive full-color charts and graphs that enable investors and advisors to differentiate between irrational hope and a rational view of the stock market. This book's empowering insights prepare you to take action during the current period of below -average returns. The unique combination of investment science and investment art explores the market from several perspectives and addresses the significant implications for a broad range of investors. Beyond concepts, Ed Easterling delivers a dramatic analysis of the likely course for the stock market over the 2010 decade. Investors and advisors will benefit from this timely outlook and its message of reasonable expectations and value-added investing. This essential resource offers a compelling understanding of the key fundamental principles that drive the stock market. Derived from years of meticulous research, Probably outcomes provides sensible conclusions that will guide your future investment choices and allow you to invest with confidence, whatever your financial strategy."--
Author: Brian J. Millard
Publisher: Harriman House Limited
ISBN: 0857190865
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 229
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Book Description
Harnessing probabilities with groundbreaking precision Future Trends from Past Cycles explains how to identify potential future trends and turning points in equity prices (short, long and medium-term) by analysing past cycles in market data. Brian Millard's renowned technical expertise and mathematical insight forms the basis of this fascinating guide, built around a blend of cycle, channel and probability analysis. With a thoroughly documented methodology, and numerous worked examples at every step of the process, this is an exceptionally lucid and insightful contribution to the literature of technical analysis. It will help the trader to harness probabilities to their advantage, and to limit their risk, with greater precision than ever before. Finding the key 10% with a trading triple lock This book teaches you how to use cycles in your trading in a way that hasn't been attempted previously. At its heart are the three disciplines of cycle, channel and probability analysis, which ensure a triple lock on probability - massively reducing the blind spots and speculative nature common to more one-dimensional technical approaches. While the general view of technical analysts is that virtually all securities can be analysed for future movement, the detailed workings and research in this book shows that this is not the case. Only a small number, around 10%, have cycles which extrapolation shows to be currently in a stable state and which therefore would appear to be predictable. Brian Millard details the mechanics of identifying this 10% - estimating the stability of trend positions, drawing probability boundaries for price positions, and deducing the core probability of any given price trend. He looks closely at the various forms of risk at play in the markets, uncovers the hidden mathematics of price movement, and shows how to simulate future movements; as well as presenting ideas on the best new ways to read cycles, evaluate mathematical trends, plot moving averages and anticipate turning points. Like the work of J. M. Hurst, Millard's forbear, Future Trends "shows what is possible when approaching the markets with a measured, logical technique based on firm mathematical and scientific logic". It is the essential final book from an acclaimed technical analyst and author.
Author: Kerry Balenthiran
Publisher: Harriman House Limited
ISBN: 0857193090
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 83
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Book Description
How do we know where we are in the current stock market cycle? Are we in the midst of a new long term bull market or a market rally within an ongoing bear market? The answers to the above questions are critical to forming an appropriate investment strategy to plan for the future. The difference between anticipating the end of a secular (or cyclical) bull market and reacting to the significant crash that follows will have a big impact on anyone's investment returns and retirement plans. This book is concerned with cycles. A cycle is a sequence of events that repeat over time. The outcome won't necessarily be the same each time, but the underlying characteristics are the same. A good example is the seasonal cycle. Each year we have spring, summer, autumn and winter, and after winter we have spring again. But the weather can, and does, vary a great deal from one year to another. And so it is with the stock market. Kerry Balenthiran has studied stock market data going back 100 years and discovered a regular 17.6 year stock market cycle consisting of increments of 2.2 years. He has also extrapolated the cycle forwards to provide investors with a market roadmap stretching out to 2053. He describes this in detail and outlines the changing character of the stock market through the different phases of the 17.6 year stock market cycle. Whether you are an investment professional or private investor, this book provides a fascinating insight into the cyclical nature of the stock market and enables you to ensure that you have the right strategy for the prevailing stock market conditions.
