Time-varying General Dynamic Factor Models and the Measurement of Financial Connectedness PDF Download
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Author: Matteo Barigozzi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Matteo Barigozzi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Marc Hallin
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN: 9789813278004
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 764
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Book Description
Factor models have become the most successful tool in the analysis and forecasting of high-dimensional time series. This monograph provides an extensive account of the so-called General Dynamic Factor Model methods. The topics covered include: asymptotic representation problems, estimation, forecasting, identification of the number of factors, identification of structural shocks, volatility analysis, and applications to macroeconomic and financial data.
Author: Mr.Maxym Kryshko
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463903499
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels of macroeconomic and financial data can be captured by relatively few common unobserved factors. Similarly, the dynamics in DSGE models are often governed by a handful of state variables and exogenous processes such as preference and/or technology shocks. Boivin and Giannoni(2006) combine a DSGE and a factor model into a data-rich DSGE model, in which DSGE states are factors and factor dynamics are subject to DSGE model implied restrictions. We compare a data-richDSGE model with a standard New Keynesian core to an empirical dynamic factor model by estimating both on a rich panel of U.S. macroeconomic and financial data compiled by Stock and Watson (2008).We find that the spaces spanned by the empirical factors and by the data-rich DSGE model states are very close. This proximity allows us to propagate monetary policy and technology innovations in an otherwise non-structural dynamic factor model to obtain predictions for many more series than just a handful of traditional macro variables, including measures of real activity, price indices, labor market indicators, interest rate spreads, money and credit stocks, and exchange rates.
Author: Mert Demirer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Banks and banking
Languages : en
Pages : 116
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Book Description
Author: Jushan Bai
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601981449
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 90
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Book Description
Large Dimensional Factor Analysis provides a survey of the main theoretical results for large dimensional factor models, emphasizing results that have implications for empirical work. The authors focus on the development of the static factor models and on the use of estimated factors in subsequent estimation and inference. Large Dimensional Factor Analysis discusses how to determine the number of factors, how to conduct inference when estimated factors are used in regressions, how to assess the adequacy pf observed variables as proxies for latent factors, how to exploit the estimated factors to test unit root tests and common trends, and how to estimate panel cointegration models.
Author: Serges Darolles
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118577493
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 113
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Book Description
With recent outbreaks of multiple large-scale financial crises, amplified by interconnected risk sources, a new paradigm of fund management has emerged. This new paradigm leverages “embedded” quantitative processes and methods to provide more transparent, adaptive, reliable and easily implemented “risk assessment-based” practices. This book surveys the most widely used factor models employed within the field of financial asset pricing. Through the concrete application of evaluating risks in the hedge fund industry, the authors demonstrate that signal processing techniques are an interesting alternative to the selection of factors (both fundamentals and statistical factors) and can provide more efficient estimation procedures, based on lq regularized Kalman filtering for instance. With numerous illustrative examples from stock markets, this book meets the needs of both finance practitioners and graduate students in science, econometrics and finance. Contents Foreword, Rama Cont. 1. Factor Models and General Definition. 2. Factor Selection. 3. Least Squares Estimation (LSE) and Kalman Filtering (KF) for Factor Modeling: A Geometrical Perspective. 4. A Regularized Kalman Filter (rgKF) for Spiky Data. Appendix: Some Probability Densities. About the Authors Serge Darolles is Professor of Finance at Paris-Dauphine University, Vice-President of QuantValley, co-founder of QAMLab SAS, and member of the Quantitative Management Initiative (QMI) scientific committee. His research interests include financial econometrics, liquidity and hedge fund analysis. He has written numerous articles, which have been published in academic journals. Patrick Duvaut is currently the Research Director of Telecom ParisTech, France. He is co-founder of QAMLab SAS, and member of the Quantitative Management Initiative (QMI) scientific committee. His fields of expertise encompass statistical signal processing, digital communications, embedded systems and QUANT finance. Emmanuelle Jay is co-founder and President of QAMLab SAS. She has worked at Aequam Capital as co-head of R&D since April 2011 and is member of the Quantitative Management Initiative (QMI) scientific committee. Her research interests include SP for finance, quantitative and statistical finance, and hedge fund analysis.
Author: Nguyen Ngoc Thach
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031591100
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 724
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Author: Jörg Breitung
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783865580979
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199338310
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 285
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Book Description
Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.
Author: Carlos Trucíos
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
General dynamic factor models have demonstrated their capacity to circumvent the curse of dimensionality in the analysis of high-dimensional time series and have been successfully considered in many economic and financial applications. Being second-order models, however, they are sensitive to the presence of outliers--an issue that has not been analyzed so far in the general case of dynamic factors with possibly infinite-dimensional factor spaces (Forni et al.~2000, 2015, 2017). In this paper, we consider this robustness issue and study the impact of additive outliers on the identification, estimation, and forecasting performance of general dynamic factor models. Based on our findings, we propose robust versions of identification, estimation and forecasting procedures. The finite-sample performance of our methods is evaluated via Monte Carlo experiments and successfully applied to a classical dataset of 115 US macroeconomic and financial time series.
