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Author: Junichiro Hagiwara
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811607117
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 350
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Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive and concrete illustration of time series analysis focusing on the state-space model, which has recently attracted increasing attention in a broad range of fields. The major feature of the book lies in its consistent Bayesian treatment regarding whole combinations of batch and sequential solutions for linear Gaussian and general state-space models: MCMC and Kalman/particle filter. The reader is given insight on flexible modeling in modern time series analysis. The main topics of the book deal with the state-space model, covering extensively, from introductory and exploratory methods to the latest advanced topics such as real-time structural change detection. Additionally, a practical exercise using R/Stan based on real data promotes understanding and enhances the reader’s analytical capability.
Author: Junichiro Hagiwara
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811607117
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 350
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive and concrete illustration of time series analysis focusing on the state-space model, which has recently attracted increasing attention in a broad range of fields. The major feature of the book lies in its consistent Bayesian treatment regarding whole combinations of batch and sequential solutions for linear Gaussian and general state-space models: MCMC and Kalman/particle filter. The reader is given insight on flexible modeling in modern time series analysis. The main topics of the book deal with the state-space model, covering extensively, from introductory and exploratory methods to the latest advanced topics such as real-time structural change detection. Additionally, a practical exercise using R/Stan based on real data promotes understanding and enhances the reader’s analytical capability.
Author: Kentaro Matsuura
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811947554
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 395
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Book Description
This book provides a highly practical introduction to Bayesian statistical modeling with Stan, which has become the most popular probabilistic programming language. The book is divided into four parts. The first part reviews the theoretical background of modeling and Bayesian inference and presents a modeling workflow that makes modeling more engineering than art. The second part discusses the use of Stan, CmdStanR, and CmdStanPy from the very beginning to basic regression analyses. The third part then introduces a number of probability distributions, nonlinear models, and hierarchical (multilevel) models, which are essential to mastering statistical modeling. It also describes a wide range of frequently used modeling techniques, such as censoring, outliers, missing data, speed-up, and parameter constraints, and discusses how to lead convergence of MCMC. Lastly, the fourth part examines advanced topics for real-world data: longitudinal data analysis, state space models, spatial data analysis, Gaussian processes, Bayesian optimization, dimensionality reduction, model selection, and information criteria, demonstrating that Stan can solve any one of these problems in as little as 30 lines. Using numerous easy-to-understand examples, the book explains key concepts, which continue to be useful when using future versions of Stan and when using other statistical modeling tools. The examples do not require domain knowledge and can be generalized to many fields. The book presents full explanations of code and math formulas, enabling readers to extend models for their own problems. All the code and data are on GitHub.
Author: Hemanta Hazarika
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9819992230
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 516
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Book Description
Author: Hassan Doosti
Publisher: Ethics International Press
ISBN: 1871891663
Category : Reference
Languages : en
Pages : 598
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Book Description
Data plays a vital role in different parts of our lives. In the world of big data, and policy determined by a variety of statistical artifacts, discussions around the ethics of data gathering, manipulation and presentation are increasingly important. Ethics in Statistics aims to make a significant contribution to that debate. The processes of gathering data through sampling, summarising of the findings, and extending results to a population, need to be checked via an ethical prospective, as well as a statistical one. Statistical learning without ethics can be harmful for mankind. This edited collection brings together contributors in the field of data science, data analytics and statistics, to share their thoughts about the role of ethics in different aspects of statistical learning.
Author: Junichiro Hagiwara
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789811607127
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive and concrete illustration of time series analysis focusing on the state-space model, which has recently attracted increasing attention in a broad range of fields. The major feature of the book lies in its consistent Bayesian treatment regarding whole combinations of batch and sequential solutions for linear Gaussian and general state-space models: MCMC and Kalman/particle filter. The reader is given insight on flexible modeling in modern time series analysis. The main topics of the book deal with the state-space model, covering extensively, from introductory and exploratory methods to the latest advanced topics such as real-time structural change detection. Additionally, a practical exercise using R/Stan based on real data promotes understanding and enhances the reader's analytical capability. .
Author: James Durbin
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191627194
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 369
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Book Description
This new edition updates Durbin & Koopman's important text on the state space approach to time series analysis. The distinguishing feature of state space time series models is that observations are regarded as made up of distinct components such as trend, seasonal, regression elements and disturbance terms, each of which is modelled separately. The techniques that emerge from this approach are very flexible and are capable of handling a much wider range of problems than the main analytical system currently in use for time series analysis, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA system. Additions to this second edition include the filtering of nonlinear and non-Gaussian series. Part I of the book obtains the mean and variance of the state, of a variable intended to measure the effect of an interaction and of regression coefficients, in terms of the observations. Part II extends the treatment to nonlinear and non-normal models. For these, analytical solutions are not available so methods are based on simulation.
Author: Giovanni Petris
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387772383
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 258
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Book Description
State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.
Author: John F. Rauthmann
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 012813996X
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 1406
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Book Description
The Handbook of Personality Dynamics and Processes is a primer to the basic and most important concepts, theories, methods, empirical findings, and applications of personality dynamics and processes. This book details how personality psychology has evolved from descriptive research to a more explanatory and dynamic science of personality, thus bridging structure- and process-based approaches, and it also reflects personality psychology's interest in the dynamic organization and interplay of thoughts, feelings, desires, and actions within persons who are always embedded into social, cultural and historic contexts. The Handbook of Personality Dynamics and Processes tackles each topic with a range of methods geared towards assessing and analyzing their dynamic nature, such as ecological momentary sampling of personality manifestations in real-life; dynamic modeling of time-series or longitudinal personality data; network modeling and simulation; and systems-theoretical models of dynamic processes. - Ties topics and methods together for a more dynamic understanding of personality - Summarizes existing knowledge and insights of personality dynamics and processes - Covers a broad compilation of cutting-edge insights - Addresses the biophysiological and social mechanisms underlying the expression and effects of personality - Examines within-person consistency and variability
Author: Johan Dahlin
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
ISBN: 9176857972
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 139
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Book Description
Making decisions and predictions from noisy observations are two important and challenging problems in many areas of society. Some examples of applications are recommendation systems for online shopping and streaming services, connecting genes with certain diseases and modelling climate change. In this thesis, we make use of Bayesian statistics to construct probabilistic models given prior information and historical data, which can be used for decision support and predictions. The main obstacle with this approach is that it often results in mathematical problems lacking analytical solutions. To cope with this, we make use of statistical simulation algorithms known as Monte Carlo methods to approximate the intractable solution. These methods enjoy well-understood statistical properties but are often computational prohibitive to employ. The main contribution of this thesis is the exploration of different strategies for accelerating inference methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). That is, strategies for reducing the computational effort while keeping or improving the accuracy. A major part of the thesis is devoted to proposing such strategies for the MCMC method known as the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm. We investigate two strategies: (i) introducing estimates of the gradient and Hessian of the target to better tailor the algorithm to the problem and (ii) introducing a positive correlation between the point-wise estimates of the target. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm based on the combination of SMC and Gaussian process optimisation, which can provide reasonable estimates of the posterior but with a significant decrease in computational effort compared with PMH. Moreover, we explore the use of sparseness priors for approximate inference in over-parametrised mixed effects models and autoregressive processes. This can potentially be a practical strategy for inference in the big data era. Finally, we propose a general method for increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates in non-linear state space models by applying a designed input signal. Borde Riksbanken höja eller sänka reporäntan vid sitt nästa möte för att nå inflationsmålet? Vilka gener är förknippade med en viss sjukdom? Hur kan Netflix och Spotify veta vilka filmer och vilken musik som jag vill lyssna på härnäst? Dessa tre problem är exempel på frågor där statistiska modeller kan vara användbara för att ge hjälp och underlag för beslut. Statistiska modeller kombinerar teoretisk kunskap om exempelvis det svenska ekonomiska systemet med historisk data för att ge prognoser av framtida skeenden. Dessa prognoser kan sedan användas för att utvärdera exempelvis vad som skulle hända med inflationen i Sverige om arbetslösheten sjunker eller hur värdet på mitt pensionssparande förändras när Stockholmsbörsen rasar. Tillämpningar som dessa och många andra gör statistiska modeller viktiga för många delar av samhället. Ett sätt att ta fram statistiska modeller bygger på att kontinuerligt uppdatera en modell allteftersom mer information samlas in. Detta angreppssätt kallas för Bayesiansk statistik och är särskilt användbart när man sedan tidigare har bra insikter i modellen eller tillgång till endast lite historisk data för att bygga modellen. En nackdel med Bayesiansk statistik är att de beräkningar som krävs för att uppdatera modellen med den nya informationen ofta är mycket komplicerade. I sådana situationer kan man istället simulera utfallet från miljontals varianter av modellen och sedan jämföra dessa mot de historiska observationerna som finns till hands. Man kan sedan medelvärdesbilda över de varianter som gav bäst resultat för att på så sätt ta fram en slutlig modell. Det kan därför ibland ta dagar eller veckor för att ta fram en modell. Problemet blir särskilt stort när man använder mer avancerade modeller som skulle kunna ge bättre prognoser men som tar för lång tid för att bygga. I denna avhandling använder vi ett antal olika strategier för att underlätta eller förbättra dessa simuleringar. Vi föreslår exempelvis att ta hänsyn till fler insikter om systemet och därmed minska antalet varianter av modellen som behöver undersökas. Vi kan således redan utesluta vissa modeller eftersom vi har en bra uppfattning om ungefär hur en bra modell ska se ut. Vi kan också förändra simuleringen så att den enklare rör sig mellan olika typer av modeller. På detta sätt utforskas rymden av alla möjliga modeller på ett mer effektivt sätt. Vi föreslår ett antal olika kombinationer och förändringar av befintliga metoder för att snabba upp anpassningen av modellen till observationerna. Vi visar att beräkningstiden i vissa fall kan minska ifrån några dagar till någon timme. Förhoppningsvis kommer detta i framtiden leda till att man i praktiken kan använda mer avancerade modeller som i sin tur resulterar i bättre prognoser och beslut.
Author: Nalini Ravishanker
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000622606
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 297
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Book Description
Dynamic Time Series Models using R-INLA: An Applied Perspective is the outcome of a joint effort to systematically describe the use of R-INLA for analysing time series and showcasing the code and description by several examples. This book introduces the underpinnings of R-INLA and the tools needed for modelling different types of time series using an approximate Bayesian framework. The book is an ideal reference for statisticians and scientists who work with time series data. It provides an excellent resource for teaching a course on Bayesian analysis using state space models for time series. Key Features: Introduction and overview of R-INLA for time series analysis. Gaussian and non-Gaussian state space models for time series. State space models for time series with exogenous predictors. Hierarchical models for a potentially large set of time series. Dynamic modelling of stochastic volatility and spatio-temporal dependence.
