Timblewit and Other Plays PDF Download
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Author: Marian Jonson
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780853435082
Category : Children's plays
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Three plays about: a young star who leaves the sky, the statues of Easter Island, and the legend of Sleeping Beauty.
Author: Marian Jonson
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780853435082
Category : Children's plays
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Three plays about: a young star who leaves the sky, the statues of Easter Island, and the legend of Sleeping Beauty.
Author: Marietta Chicorel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Drama
Languages : en
Pages : 488
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Book Description
Author: Library of Congress. Copyright Office
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Copyright
Languages : en
Pages : 966
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Book Description
Author: Dorothy Herbert West
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Drama
Languages : en
Pages : 484
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Book Description
Author: Marian Jonson
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780853435112
Category : American drama
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Author: Library of Congress
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 680
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Book Description
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331
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Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : English philology
Languages : en
Pages : 128
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Union catalogs
Languages : en
Pages : 622
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Book Description
Includes entries for maps and atlases.
Author: Library of Congress. Copyright Office
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : American drama
Languages : en
Pages : 730
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Book Description
