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Author: Wen Cao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Wen Cao
Publisher:
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Jihun Kwak
Publisher:
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Category : Convergence (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Yuxin Zhang (Ph. D.)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 362
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In my dissertation, I propose a general research framework of MAD---Monitoring, Analyzing, and Data Informed Decision-making---for financial decision-making. I present three essays which concentrate on two consequential aspects of decision-making for financial risk management. The first two essays focus on better monitoring and analyzing the risk, and the last one focuses on better data-informed decision-making based on the observation and analysis. In the first essay, I study the modeling of joint mortality for the practice of life insurance and annuity pricing. Specifically, I develop a new mathematical model to describe the joint mortality for coupled dependent lives. This model can be used to guide the risk management strategy and the pricing policy for insurance and annuity products. It is shown that it improves the current methods for modeling financial decision-making related to dependent life structures (such as joint life insurance, last survivor annuities, and defined benefit plans for married couples). In the second essay, I study the prediction of Bitcoin price movement and the relevant implications for business analytics. I exploit Bitcoin transaction networks and link network characteristics with the Bitcoin market exchange price. Based on this linkage and the data record, I construct predictive models for Bitcoin price movement. With the innovative use of Bitcoin transaction network data, the predictive models lead to more accurate results which outperform existing models. This methodological innovation also presents new managerial insights from network perspectives. In the third essay, I focus on data-driven decision-making in contexts of the allocation of disaster relief funds. Specifically, I tackle methodological challenges in disaster management when data are extremely sparse and insufficient in the beginning of the disaster evolution, and slowly become more available and reliable as time unfolds. Here I propose an iterative learning method within the general MAD framework to estimate disaster damage losses using very limited and slowly obtained data. Results show that this iterative learning method leads to highly accurate results with fast convergence of the estimation error to a very low level. The framework and results of this essay can be further used for disaster management and resource allocation in various scenarios
Author: David R. Brillinger
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400851602
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 352
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This collection of essays brings together many of the world's most distinguished statisticians to discuss a wide array of the most important recent developments in data analysis. The book honors John W. Tukey, one of the most influential statisticians of the twentieth century, on the occasion of his eightieth birthday. Contributors, some of them Tukey's former students, use his general theoretical work and his specific contributions to Exploratory Data Analysis as the point of departure for their papers. They cover topics from "pure" data analysis, such as gaussianizing transformations and regression estimates, and from "applied" subjects, such as the best way to rank the abilities of chess players or to estimate the abundance of birds in a particular area. Tukey may be best known for coining the common computer term "bit," for binary digit, but his broader work has revolutionized the way statisticians think about and analyze sets of data. In a personal interview that opens the book, he reviews these extraordinary contributions and his life with characteristic modesty, humor, and intelligence. The book will be valuable both to researchers and students interested in current theoretical and practical data analysis and as a testament to Tukey's lasting influence. The essays are by Dhammika Amaratunga, David Andrews, David Brillinger, Christopher Field, Leo Goodman, Frank Hampel, John Hartigan, Peter Huber, Mia Hubert, Clifford Hurvich, Karen Kafadar, Colin Mallows, Stephan Morgenthaler, Frederick Mosteller, Ha Nguyen, Elvezio Ronchetti, Peter Rousseeuw, Allan Seheult, Paul Velleman, Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser, and Alessandro Villa. Originally published in 1998. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
Author: Laura Serlenga
Publisher:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: L. Serlenga
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Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Robert L. Launer
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483263061
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Modern Data Analysis contains the proceedings of a Workshop on Modern Data Analysis held in Raleigh, North Carolina, on June 2-4, 1980 under the auspices of the United States Army Research Office. The papers review theories and methods of data analysis and cover topics ranging from single and multiple quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plotting procedures to biplot display and pencil-and-paper exploratory data analysis methods. Projection pursuit methods for data analysis are also discussed. Comprised of nine chapters, this book begins with an introduction to styles of data analysis techniques, followed by an analysis of single and multiple Q-Q plotting procedures. Problems involving extreme-value data and the behavior of sample averages are considered. Subsequent chapters deal with the use of smelting in guiding re-expression; geometric data analysis; and influence functions and regression diagnostics. The final chapter examines the use and interpretation of robust analysis of variance for the general non-full-rank linear model. The procedures are described in terms of their mathematical structure, which leads to efficient computational algorithms. This monograph should be of interest to mathematicians and statisticians.
Author: L. Andries van der Ark
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 303110370X
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 461
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This book 'Essays on Contemporary Psychometrics' provides an overview of contemporary psychometrics, the science devoted to the advancement of quantitative measurement practices in psychology, education and the social sciences. The volume consists of four parts, each having several chapters on cutting-edge work in the field. Part I, General Perspectives on Psychometrics, includes expert views on topics such as psychological models vs. measurement models, using tests in decision making, artificial intelligence, and psychometric network models. Part II, Factor Analysis and Classical Test Theory, the type of psychometrics that is still used most often in the social and behavioral sciences, includes state-of-the-art contributions on test-score reliability, change-score reliability, handling missing data in principal component analysis, test equating, and conditional standard errors of measurement. Part III, Item Response Theory, the leading form of psychometrics in modern educational measurement, includes discussions of sampling from many conditional distributions, transparent score reporting, nonparametric item response theory, and targeted testing. Part IV, New Psychometrics, discusses recently developed ideas beyond classical test theory and item response theory, including topics related to computer adaptive testing, response-time modelling, validity indices, diagnostic classification models, and the sparse latent class model for ordinal measurements. Together, these four parts provide an overview of the current state-of-the-art in psychometrics in educational measurement. They are a valuable source of information for graduate students who (intend to) study psychometrics and need an overview of the field, and for researchers interested in the current developments in the field. Chapters [3], [5], [8], [16] and [19] are available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.
Author: David Russell Hansen
Publisher: Stanford University
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 147
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This dissertation is composed of three chapters. All three deal with topics in development economics. The first chapter examines the effects on village institutions of introducing formal financial institution options into the village. The second addresses the effects of government policy on educational investment and crime. The third tests the explanatory power of various explanations of the gender gap in math test scores. The first chapter examines the effects of a transition from a ``traditional'' economy based on an uncertain source of income, with risk fully insured away by one's neighbors in a social network through costly network ties, to a ``modern'' economy in which some agents have access to partial insurance at a lower cost. A theoretical model is used to show that village social networks can break down as some members of the village no longer need the insurance the social network provides, producing a reduction in welfare (if the costs of reducing moral hazard are not too high) for at least some individuals and possibly the village as a whole. This loss of welfare can occur even when networks provide other benefits to those belonging to them and is likely to be heterogeneous, depending on the opportunities and networks available to individuals. This paper tests these predictions using Indonesian data to examine the effect of a change in the banking institutions available to a community on the strength of social networks (measured by community participation) and welfare (measured by household expenditure and by child health). The analysis finds that changing financial institution availability in general does not influence community participation or welfare, but that financial institutions that primarily serve certain groups do relatively reduce the welfare of households not in those groups, which is consistent with the hypotheses generated by the model. Crime is an important feature of economic life in many countries, especially in the developing world. Crime distorts many economic decisions because it acts like an unpredictable tax on earnings. In particular, the threat of crime may influence people's willingness to invest in schooling or physical capital. The second chapter explores the questions "What influence do crime rates and levels of investment have on one another?" and "How do government policies affect the relationship between investment and crime?" by creating a simple structural model of crime and educational investment and attempting to fit this model to Mexican data. A method of simulated moments procedure is used to estimate parameters of the model and the estimated parameters are then used to carry out policy simulations. The simulations show that increasing spending on police or increasing the severity of punishment reduces crime but has little effect on educational investment. Increased educational subsidies increase educational investment but reduce crime only slightly. Thus, one type of policy is insufficient to accomplish the goals of both reducing crime and increasing education. The third chapter is joint work with Prashant Bharadwaj, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Christopher Neilson. Boys tend to have better performances than girls in mathematical testing; in particular, there are significantly more boys than girls among high achievers and the score distribution appears to have a longer right tail for boys. We confirm such results on several low- and middle-income countries. In particular we find that the gender gap is already present by age 10 and substantially increases by age 14 and 15. We propose and try to test a series of explanations for such a gap: (i) parental investment, (ii) ability, (iii) school resources, (iv) individual investment and effort (not tested directly), (v) competitive environment, and (vi) cultural norms. We conclude that none of our proposed explanations can account for a substantial portion of the gap.
Author: Karl Korsch
Publisher: NYU Press
ISBN: 085345292X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 75
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These three essays by the independent German Marxist Karl Korsch offer expositions, often in polemical form, of basic Marxist ideas. Since they cover both sociology and economics, they are excellent guides for the student on the most introductory, though not the most elementary, level. The first essay, "Leading Principles of Marxism," takes up Marxism on the plane of sociology and deals with the relation of Marxism to Comte and positivism, and to bourgeois sociology in general. The second, his introduction to the 1932 German edition of Capital, consists of an assessment of the work in human thought and an important reader's guide to Volume I. The third, "Why I Am a Marxist," is a polemic against various distortions in Marxism and an affirmation of the revolutionary, as against the academic, character of Marxism.
