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Author: Ariel Amir
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108479529
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 243
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Book Description
An introductory text providing the reader with a thorough background to the rich world of applications of stochastic processes.
Author: Ariel Amir
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108479529
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 243
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Book Description
An introductory text providing the reader with a thorough background to the rich world of applications of stochastic processes.
Author: Raymond S. Nickerson
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 113561461X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 798
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Book Description
Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.
Author: Shane Parrish
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0593719972
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 209
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Book Description
Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
Author: Gaurav Garg
Publisher: Gaurav Garg
ISBN:
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 151
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Book Description
In a world obsessed with certainty, this book dares to embrace the unknown. "Dancing with Uncertainty" isn't just a catchy title—it's a revolutionary approach to navigating the complexities of modern life. Within these pages, you'll discover how to harness the power of probabilistic thinking to make better decisions, manage risks, and find opportunities where others see only chaos. From the boardroom to the bedroom, from financial investments to personal relationships, this book will transform the way you view the world. Key concepts you'll explore include: The Probabilistic Mindset: Learn to see life as a series of probabilities rather than absolutes. The 60/40 Rule: A practical guide to decision-making in uncertain situations. Expected Value Calculations: Maximize your 'life ROI' by understanding the true value of your choices. The Monte Carlo Method: Simulate multiple futures to prepare for any outcome. Bayesian Thinking: Update your beliefs intelligently as new information comes to light. But this isn't just a dry textbook. It's filled with real-life examples, practical exercises, and even a dash of humor. You'll learn from poker players, stock traders, meteorologists, and everyday people who've used probabilistic thinking to achieve extraordinary results. "In an uncertain world, the only mistake is to be unprepared. This book is your guide to turning uncertainty into your greatest advantage." Whether you're a CEO making high-stakes decisions, a student planning your future, or simply someone looking to navigate life with more confidence, "Dancing with Uncertainty" offers a new lens through which to view the world. So, are you ready to embrace the power of probability? To see opportunities where others see only risk? To dance with uncertainty and lead a richer, more calculated life? Open this book, and take your first step into a larger, more probabilistic world.
Author: Harvard Business Review
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
ISBN: 1647824478
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 156
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Book Description
Tackle complex situations with critical thinking. You're facing a problem at work. There are many ways you can approach the situation, but each comes with its own pros and cons. How do you sort through all the information so that you know you're taking the right path? The answer is in how you think. The HBR Guide to Critical Thinking will help you navigate your most challenging issues, from difficult problems to tough decisions to complex scenarios. By carefully observing the situation, gathering information, inviting other perspectives, and analyzing what's in front of you, you can move forward with confidence while building this crucial leadership skill. You'll learn how to: Question your assumptions Keep an open mind to opposing viewpoints Sidestep cognitive biases Use data—when appropriate Grow comfortable with ambiguity Find innovative and creative solutions Arm yourself with the advice you need to succeed on the job, with the most trusted brand in business. Packed with how-to essentials from leading experts, the HBR Guides provide smart answers to your most pressing work challenges.
Author: Adam Morton
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191633100
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
Bounded Thinking offers a new account of the virtues of limitation management: intellectual virtues of adapting to the fact that we cannot solve many problems that we can easily describe. Adam Morton argues that we do give one another guidance on managing our limitations, but that this has to be in terms of virtues and not of rules, and in terms of success—knowledge and accomplishment—rather than rationality. He establishes a taxonomy of intellectual virtues, which includes 'paradoxical virtues' that sound like vices, such as the virtue of ignoring evidence and the virtue of not thinking too hard. There are also virtues of not planning ahead, in that some forms of such planning require present knowledge of one's future knowledge that is arguably impossible. A person's best response to many problems depends not on the most rationally promising solution to solving them but on the most likely route to success given the profile of intellectual virtues that the person has and lacks. Morton illustrates his argument with discussions of several paradoxes and conundra. He closes the book with a discussion of intelligence and rationality, and argues that both have very limited usefulness in the evaluation of who will make progress on which problems.
Author: Robert E. Rubin
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0593491394
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 337
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Book Description
Robert Rubin, former secretary of the Treasury and co-chairman of Goldman Sachs, shares thoughts on decision-making developed over more than six decades in markets, business, government, and politics, and offers readers an astute and original guide for navigating uncertain times In 1958, as a college sophomore, Robert Rubin took a class that changed his life. The class was introduction to philosophy, and the professor, Raphael Demos, instilled in his students an idea that was simple yet profound: There is no such thing as certainty. For Rubin, this led to a critically important question: How can we make sound decisions in a fundamentally uncertain world? While serving in some of the most significant roles in markets, business, and government, Rubin has grappled with that question. Time and again, when faced with a high-stakes decision, he turned to his most trusted tool: a simple yellow legal pad. Rubin’s yellow pad (or more recently, his iPad) became an expression of a larger decision-making philosophy that has both lasted and shaped a lifetime. In The Yellow Pad, Rubin lays out that philosophy with depth and detail, and presents a compelling intellectual framework for confronting some of the most difficult issues we face today. The Yellow Pad contains a former Treasury secretary’s approach to economic policymaking. A former Goldman Sachs senior partner’s approach to personal investing and understanding risk. A former director of the National Economic Council’s approach to managing people in both private- and public-sector organizations. And much more. Yet despite his lifetime of experiences, Rubin remains refreshingly open-minded, interested in exploring ideas rather than promoting ideologies. With its combination of wisdom and relevance, The Yellow Pad is an essential guide for anyone looking to make better decisions in life, work, and public policy.
Author: Susanne P. Lajoie
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136490868
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 257
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Book Description
An issue in the current push for reform in mathematics education is the call to address statistics at the precollege level. This volume represents the emerging findings of an interdisciplinary collaboration among a group of mathematics educators, cognitive scientists, teachers, and statisticians to construct an understanding of how to introduce statistics education and assessment for students in elementary and secondary schools. A premise shared by the contributors to this volume is that when students are introduced to statistics at the K-12 level and provided with opportunities to do statistics that are related to actual life situations, they will be better prepared for decision making in the real world. The interdisciplinary nature of the group of researchers stimulated a lively interchange of ideas for enhancing the learning, teaching, and assessment of statistical understanding, which is reflected in this volume. Mathematics educators contribute their insights into how teachers teach mathematical ideas and heighten our awareness of the ecological needs of the current mathematics classroom. Cognitive scientists share their understanding of developmental differences in learning and present theoretical perspectives that contribute to the design of effective learning environments. Classroom teachers share their ideas about classroom activities and assessment of student learning, as well as their concerns for in-service training and workshops to help teachers acquire skills in this new content area. Statisticians offer their understanding of what is feasible to teach in the early grades, and what their view is of statistical literacy. The book is organized around four interdependent themes: content, teaching, learning, and assessment. By focusing their respective chapters on particular themes, the authors intend to cultivate a better understanding of how each relates to improvements in statistics education. This is the first book to: * address statistics learning in grades K-12, * address issues of statistical curriculum content in grades K-12, * address issues of assessment of statistics learning in grades K-12, * bring issues of technology instruction and assessment in statistics education in grades K-12, and * look at teacher education for statistics instruction in grades K-12. This is a must-read book for both practitioners and researchers involved in K-12 mathematics education.
Author: Arieh Ben-Naim
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812832262
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 254
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Book Description
In this unique book, the reader is invited to experience the joy of appreciating something which has eluded understanding for many years OCo entropy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The book has a two-pronged message: first, that the second law is not infinitely incomprehensible as commonly stated in most textbooks on thermodynamics, but can, in fact, be comprehended through sheer common sense; and second, that entropy is not a mysterious quantity that has resisted understanding but a simple, familiar and easily comprehensible concept.Written in an accessible style, the book guides the reader through an abundance of dice games and examples from everyday life. The author paves the way for readers to discover for themselves what entropy is, how it changes, and, most importantly, why it always changes in one direction in a spontaneous process.In this new edition, seven simulated games are included so that the reader can actually experiment with the games described in the book. These simulated games are meant to enhance the readers'' understanding and sense of joy upon discovering the Second Law of Thermodynamics."
Author: Arieh Ben-naim
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814476870
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 248
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Book Description
In this unique book, Arieh Ben-Naim invites the reader to experience the joy of appreciating something which has eluded understanding for many years — entropy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics.The book has a two-pronged message: first, that the Second Law is not “infinitely incomprehensible” as commonly stated in textbooks of thermodynamics but can, in fact, be comprehended through sheer common sense; and second, that entropy is not a mysterious quantity that has “resisted understanding” but a simple, familiar and easily comprehensible concept.Written in an accessible style, the book guides the reader through an abundance of dice games and examples from everyday life. The author paves the way for readers to discover for themselves what entropy is, how it changes, and most importantly, why it always changes in one direction in a spontaneous process.
