Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1439127093
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 328
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Book Description
At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
Author: Karen Zelan
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1489906126
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 326
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Book Description
It gives me great pleasure to introduce this important and fascinating book on the internal dilemmas youngsters face in school, which often cause them to stop learning. We are all too ready to ascribe learning problems to an inability to learn and leave it at that. This book should go a long way toward convincing us that using such simpleminded explanations and remedial efforts based on them do not work. Unlike other books that identify the causes of learning disabilities in children or that detail society's impact on the so-called helpless child, The Risks of Knowing is an in-depth study of young people who for reasons of intrapsychic conflicts and of intellectual development make a nega tive decision about the learning process. This book is unique in its thorough analysis of the conflicts young people have with learning and in its treatment prescriptions. In case after case, Karen Zelan demonstrates that if young people declare themselves unable to learn it is because for some valid reasons they believe learning is dangerous. The reasons that cause a decision to fail often remain unconscious until they are brought to the child's awareness. When the child is helped to understand the source of any inner dilemmas, both child and parents are able to find better solutions to immediate learning difficulties. Karen Zelan brings a rare expertise to the problems young people find in academic learning.
Author: Romney Duffey
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080509738
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 259
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Book Description
We live in a technological world, exposed to many risks and errors and the fear of death. Know the Risk shows us how we can learn from the many errors and tragic accidents which have plagued our developing technological world.This breakthrough volume presents a new concept and theory that shows how errors can and should be analyzed so that learning and experience are accounted for. The authors show that, by using a universal learning curve, errors can be tracked and managed so that they are reduced to the smallest number possible.The authors have devoted a number of years to gathering data, analyzing theories relating to error reduction, design improvement, management of errors and assignment of cause. The analyzed data relates to millions of errors. They find a common thread between all technology-related accidents and link all of these errors (from the headline stories to the everyday accidents). They challenge the reader to take a different look at the stream of threats, risks, dangers, statistics and errors by presenting a new perspective. The book makes use of detailed illustrations and explores many headline accidents which highlight human weaknesses in harnessing and exploiting the technology we have developed; from the Titanic to Chernobyl, Bhopal to Concorde, the Mary Rose to the Paddington rail crash and examine errors over which we have little or no control. By analyzing the vast data society has collected, the authors show how the famous accidents and our everyday risks are related.The authors prove the strength of their observations by comparing their findings to the recorded history of tragedies, disasters, accidents and incidents in chemical, airline, shipping, rail, automobile, nuclear, medical, industrial and manufacturing technologies. They also address the management of Quality and losses in production, the search for zero defects and the avoidance of personal risk and danger.Stresses the importance of a learning environment for safety improvementPlaces both quality and safety management in the same learning contextLearn how to track and manage errors to reduce as quickly as possible
Author: David William Cohen
Publisher: Ohio University Press
ISBN: 0821415972
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 360
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Book Description
The Risks of Knowledge minutely examines the multiple and unfinished investigations into the murder of Kenya's distinguished Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Robert Ouko, in February 1990. Public and international concern over Ouko's death led to renewed attention to the extent of governmental corruption the Moi era, and brought down the government of President Moi at the end of 2002.
Author: Ben Carson, M.D.
Publisher: Zondervan
ISBN: 0310315921
Category : Religion
Languages : en
Pages : 244
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Book Description
By avoiding risk, are you also avoiding your life's full potential? Join acclaimed neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson as he explores the life-changing power of taking the risk, even if you're afraid. In our risk-avoidant culture, we place a high premium on safety. We insure our vacations. We check crash tests on cars. We extend the warranties on our appliances. But by insulating ourselves from the unknown--the natural risks of life--we miss the great adventure of living our lives to their fullest potential. Dr. Ben Carson spent his childhood as an at-risk child on the streets of Detroit, and he took big risks in performing complex surgeries on the brain and the spinal cord. Now, offering inspiring personal examples, Dr. Carson invites us to embrace risk in our own lives. In Take the Risk, Dr. Carson examines our safety-at-all-costs culture and the meaning of risk and security in our lives. Take the Risk guides you through an extensive examination of risk, including: Risk-taking in history An assessment of the real costs and rewards of risk Learning how to assess and accept risks Understanding how risk reveals the purpose of your life From a man whose life dramatically portrays the connection between great risks and greater successes, the insights Dr. Carson shares in Take the Risk will help you dispel your fear of risk in order to dream big, aim high, move with confidence, and reap the rewards of wise risk-taking. Praise for Take the Risk: "Whether you are a world-renowned neurosurgeon, a CEO, or a teacher, this book applies to anyone who ever wondered about the difference between the pacesetters and those who struggle to keep up. It is the pacesetters who Take the Risk, and this book explains when and why to take risks to empower everyone to become a trailblazer rather than a mere spectator. For anyone who wants to rise above mediocrity, this book is a must-read." --Armstrong Williams, author and radio host, The Armstrong Williams Show
Author: Doug Sundheim
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 0071778209
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 273
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Book Description
In today’s market, playing it safe is not an option Lead your company to sustainable success by taking the RIGHT RISKS The business world is in flux, and you have to think and act quickly in order to stay competitive. But the last thing you want to do is make reckless business decisions. You have to find the middle ground. You have to take SMART RISKS. In this groundbreaking book, leadership expert Doug Sundheim explains how to find that precise point between comfort and danger for generating the sustained ability to work at the highest level of performance. Taking Smart Risks reveals the secrets to discovering, planning for, and acting upon the kind of risks that will move your company forward and ahead of the competition. Learn how to: Find Something Worth Fighting For—What do you care enough about to risk time, energy, and money to try to make happen? Determining this is half the battle. See the Future Now—Clarify your big idea in terms of real objectives, plans, and intended results. Act Fast, Learn Fast—Make your move quickly, but be sure you don’t squander valuable resources in the process. Communicate Powerfully—Assume communication will break down at points, plan accordingly—and don’t shy away from the tough conversations. Create a Smart Risk Culture— Build teams that share the same mindsets and values about expected smart risk behavior. Applying Sundheim’s advice will help you let go of old assumptions, explore new possibilities, move your organization out of its comfort zone, and experience long-term success. When you take smart risks, you will create. You will innovate. You will grow. And you will WIN. “From Sherwin Williams to Moo.com, Doug Sundheim is onto something here: your work is worth fighting for. A worthy read for everyone in your organization.” —Seth Godin, Author, The Icarus Deception “The risk-taking concepts in this book lie at the heart of effective leadership. Using case studies and stories from executives who have ‘been there, done that,’ Doug Sundheim teaches us that sometimes the most dangerous thing to do—in business and life—is to play it safe.” —Marshall Goldsmith, million-selling author of the New York Times bestsellers MOJO and What Got You Here Won’t Get You There “Sundheim delivers a message that every business needs to hear right now: excessive risk will kill you, but so will complacency. . . . If you’re charged with driving growth in your organization, buy this book—but more importantly, use it.” —Jed Hartman, Group Publisher, Fortune & CNNMoney.com “A spectacular book! The stories were powerful, the advice was crystal clear, and every few pages called me to action. I have bookmarked more pages in Taking Smart Risks than I have in any book since reading Peter Drucker’s classics.” —Michael Hejtmanek, President & CEO, Hasselblad Bron Inc. “Doug Sundheim does an excellent job of demonstrating not only how to take smart risks, but also how to lead the process of risk-taking—a critical skill set for leaders today.” —Cindy Zollinger, President & CEO, Cornerstone Research “A compelling case for why smart risk taking is so important in today’s fast-paced, uncertain world.” —Willie Pietersen, Professor, Columbia Business School; former CEO, Tropicana and Seagram USA
Author: Dan Gardner
Publisher: McClelland & Stewart
ISBN: 1551992108
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 510
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Book Description
In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences — such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In part, this irrationality is caused by those — politicians, activists, and the media — who promote fear for their own gain. Culture also matters. But a more fundamental cause is human psychology. Working with risk science pioneer Paul Slovic, author Dan Gardner sets out to explain in a compulsively readable fashion just what that statement above means as to how we make decisions and run our lives. We learn that the brain has not one but two systems to analyze risk. One is primitive, unconscious, and intuitive. The other is conscious and rational. The two systems often agree, but occasionally they come to very different conclusions. When that happens, we can find ourselves worrying about what the statistics tell us is a trivial threat — terrorism, child abduction, cancer caused by chemical pollution — or shrugging off serious risks like obesity and smoking. Gladwell told us about “the black box” of our brains; Gardner takes us inside, helping us to understand how to deconstruct the information we’re bombarded with and respond more logically and adaptively to our world. Risk is cutting-edge reading.
Author: United States. National Commission for the Protection of Human Subjects of Biomedical and Behavioral Research
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Ethics, Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 614
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Book Description
Author: John X. Wang
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780824793012
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 268
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Book Description
"Explains how to assess and handle technical risk, schedule risk, and cost risk efficiently and effectively--enabling engineering professionals to anticipate failures regardless of system complexity--highlighting opportunities to turn failure into success."
Author: Carolyn DeCarlo
Publisher: The Rosen Publishing Group, Inc
ISBN: 1508183627
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
This book provides a thorough overview of the risks of unprotected sex, including STIs, HIV, and pregnancy. Readers will learn how to protect themselves and minimize their risks, what symptoms to look out for if they believe they have been infected or impregnated, and where to go for non-judgmental treatment or advice. An objective tone and series-featured sidebars, including Myths and Facts and Ten Questions to Ask a Specialist, will leave readers of all genders and sexual orientations feeling informed, empowered, and in control.
