The Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies [by Roger E.A. Farmer] : a Review Article

The Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies [by Roger E.A. Farmer] : a Review Article PDF Author: Kenneth James Matheny
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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The Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies [by Roger E.A. Farmer] : a Review Article

The Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies [by Roger E.A. Farmer] : a Review Article PDF Author: Kenneth James Matheny
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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Book Description


The Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies

The Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies PDF Author: Roger E. A. Farmer
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262062039
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 330

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Book Description
Farmer argues for the future of macroeconomics as a branch ofapplied general equilibrium theory. His main theme is thatmacroeconomics is best viewed as the study of equilibrium environmentsin which the welfare theorems break down.

How the Economy Works

How the Economy Works PDF Author: Roger E. A. Farmer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199756376
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 209

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Book Description
"Of all the economic bubbles that have been pricked," the editors of The Economist recently observed, "few have burst more spectacularly than the reputation of economics itself." Indeed, the financial crisis that crested in 2008 destroyed the credibility of the economic thinking that had guided policymakers for a generation. But what will take its place? In How the Economy Works, one of our leading economists provides a jargon-free exploration of the current crisis, offering a powerful argument for how economics must change to get us out of it. Roger E. A. Farmer traces the swings between classical and Keynesian economics since the early twentieth century, gracefully explaining the elements of both theories. During the Great Depression, Keynes challenged the longstanding idea that an economy was a self-correcting mechanism; but his school gave way to a resurgence of classical economics in the 1970s-a rise that ended with the current crisis. Rather than simply allowing the pendulum to swing back, Farmer writes, we must synthesize the two. From classical economics, he takes the idea that a sound theory must explain how individuals behave-how our collective choices shape the economy. From Keynesian economics, he adopts the principle that markets do not always work well, that capitalism needs some guidance. The goal, he writes, is to correct the excesses of a free-market economy without stifling entrepreneurship and instituting central planning. Recent events have shown that we cannot afford to treat economics as an ivory-tower abstraction. It has a direct impact on our lives by guiding regulators and policymakers as they make decisions with far-reaching practical consequences. Written in clear, accessible language, How the Economy Works makes an argument that no one should ignore.

Expectations, Employment and Prices

Expectations, Employment and Prices PDF Author: Roger Farmer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199741549
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 206

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Book Description
Expectations, Employment and Prices brings Keynesian economics into the 21st century by providing a new paradigm that explains how high unemployment could potentially persist forever without a little help from the government. The book fills in logical gaps that were missing from Keynes' General Theory of Employment Interest and Money by reconciling some of its key ideas with modern economic theory. Central bankers throughout the world are talking now about developing a second instrument of monetary policy in addition to controlling the interest rate. Roger Farmer directly addresses this issue and offers new creative monetary policy proposals and suggestions for the design of new financial institutions for the 21st century.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Hysteresis and Business Cycles PDF Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Stock Prices and Monetary Policy

Stock Prices and Monetary Policy PDF Author: Paul De Grauwe
Publisher: CEPS
ISBN: 929079819X
Category : Monetary policy
Languages : en
Pages : 22

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Book Description
The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. This paper analyses this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. It analyses how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade-off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.

A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond

A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond PDF Author: Michel De Vroey
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521898439
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 451

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Book Description
This book retraces the history of macroeconomics from Keynes's General Theory to the present. Central to it is the contrast between a Keynesian era and a Lucasian - or dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) - era, each ruled by distinct methodological standards. In the Keynesian era, the book studies the following theories: Keynesian macroeconomics, monetarism, disequilibrium macro (Patinkin, Leijongufvud, and Clower) non-Walrasian equilibrium models, and first-generation new Keynesian models. Three stages are identified in the DSGE era: new classical macro (Lucas), RBC modelling, and second-generation new Keynesian modeling. The book also examines a few selected works aimed at presenting alternatives to Lucasian macro. While not eschewing analytical content, Michel De Vroey focuses on substantive assessments, and the models studied are presented in a pedagogical and vivid yet critical way.

Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics

Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics PDF Author: Paul De Grauwe
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400845378
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 147

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Book Description
In mainstream economics, and particularly in New Keynesian macroeconomics, the booms and busts that characterize capitalism arise because of large external shocks. The combination of these shocks and the slow adjustments of wages and prices by rational agents leads to cyclical movements. In this book, Paul De Grauwe argues for a different macroeconomics model--one that works with an internal explanation of the business cycle and factors in agents' limited cognitive abilities. By creating a behavioral model that is not dependent on the prevailing concept of rationality, De Grauwe is better able to explain the fluctuations of economic activity that are an endemic feature of market economies. This new approach illustrates a richer macroeconomic dynamic that provides for a better understanding of fluctuations in output and inflation. De Grauwe shows that the behavioral model is driven by self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism, or animal spirits. Booms and busts in economic activity are therefore natural outcomes of a behavioral model. The author uses this to analyze central issues in monetary policies, such as output stabilization, before extending his investigation into asset markets and more sophisticated forecasting rules. He also examines how well the theoretical predictions of the behavioral model perform when confronted with empirical data. Develops a behavioral macroeconomic model that assumes agents have limited cognitive abilities Shows how booms and busts are characteristic of market economies Explores the larger role of the central bank in the behavioral model Examines the destabilizing aspects of asset markets

Working Paper

Working Paper PDF Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 88

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Rethinking Expectations

Rethinking Expectations PDF Author: Roman Frydman
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400846455
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 441

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Book Description
This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.