The Intergovernmental Fiscal Outlook and the Implications of Russia's War Against Ukraine, High Energy Prices and Inflation PDF Download
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Languages : en
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Less than two years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's illegal, unprovoked and unjustifiable war of aggression against Ukraine has triggered the biggest military confrontation in Europe since World War II. Many OECD countries have reacted to Russia's aggression by providing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and by imposing economic sanctions on Russia, which has accentuated supply chain disruptions, especially in the energy sector. A combination of these supply shocks with a demand shock caused by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to tackle the pandemic has created inflationary pressures on a scale not seen in decades. Central banks around the world are acting to fulfil their price stability mandates by increasing interest rates and by engaging in quantitative tightening (primarily the selling of government bonds to reduce central bank balance sheets), all of which put pressure on borrowing costs at a time when governments are engaging in expansionary fiscal policy to alleviate the impact of inflation. The objective of this policy note is to examine the main consequences of this challenging environment for the fiscal stance of different levels of governments. These include the weakening outlook for government revenues in times of high expenditure pressures from a more rapid energy transition as well as high borrowing costs.
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Less than two years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's illegal, unprovoked and unjustifiable war of aggression against Ukraine has triggered the biggest military confrontation in Europe since World War II. Many OECD countries have reacted to Russia's aggression by providing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and by imposing economic sanctions on Russia, which has accentuated supply chain disruptions, especially in the energy sector. A combination of these supply shocks with a demand shock caused by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to tackle the pandemic has created inflationary pressures on a scale not seen in decades. Central banks around the world are acting to fulfil their price stability mandates by increasing interest rates and by engaging in quantitative tightening (primarily the selling of government bonds to reduce central bank balance sheets), all of which put pressure on borrowing costs at a time when governments are engaging in expansionary fiscal policy to alleviate the impact of inflation. The objective of this policy note is to examine the main consequences of this challenging environment for the fiscal stance of different levels of governments. These include the weakening outlook for government revenues in times of high expenditure pressures from a more rapid energy transition as well as high borrowing costs.
Author: Nataliya Struk
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1040102719
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 184
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Book Description
The Economics of Russia’s War in Ukraine provides a thorough analysis of the Russo-Ukrainian war, tracing its historical roots and exploring its multifaceted dimensions. This book emphasizes economic, geopolitical, and humanitarian impacts, highlighting Ukraine’s resilience amid challenges. At the same time, this study examines the EU’s dynamic responses to economic crises and energy transition, the consequences of the war on global trade dynamics, and the significant influence of geopolitical events on financial markets. It underscores the EU’s commitment to aiding Ukraine, enhancing its security, and increasing defence spending in response to evolving geopolitical complexities. The impact of the invasion on financial markets and the vulnerabilities of the banking sector are closely examined, highlighting the complex relationship between geopolitics and the global economy. Findings suggest that the priorities for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine include addressing human capital and demographics, employment opportunities, environmental protection, infrastructure and housing reconstruction, security and mine clearance, waste recycling, agriculture and food security, digital transformation, social protection and healthcare, and education and research. This book therefore argues that a comprehensive, integrated approach with international support is crucial for Ukraine’s recovery and sustainable economic growth. The Economics of Russia’s War in Ukraine will be useful for scholars, students, professionals, policy makers, all interested in economics, international relations, security, and global studies, as well as all those wishing to have a thorough and clear understanding of the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and its influence on Europe.
Author: Roman Arjona
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789276986119
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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The European Council conclusions of 24 February 2022 condemned Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and called for the urgent preparation and adoption of a sanctions package. By June 2022, six main packages of EU sanctions and various ancillary measures have been adopted against businesses and individuals in Russia and Belarus. This shock has come at a time in which the European economy was still recovering from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and it is leading to a worsening economic outlook. The revisions of major official forecasts for this year, all point to the same direction: accelerating inflation and decelerating growth. The cost of the war, so far, can be estimated at around one-and-a-half point of lower real growth and about three additional points of headline inflation. This note provides an overview of economic and trade exposures of the EU economy to Russia, including on strategic dependencies at the product level and a novel monitoring approach to detect supply chain distress6 . It also covers recent trends in energy prices.
Author: Vasily Astrov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian, economic, financial and political crisis that will reverberate across Europe. In this Policy Note we analyse the short- and medium-term implications of the conflict. We find that the most severe economic and financial impact will be in Ukraine and Russia. Much of Ukraine is already devastated by the war, with around 19m people and over half of the country's GDP in the regions currently directly affected. Meanwhile we estimate that Russian GDP will contract by 7-8% this year, and inflation will accelerate to close to 30% by the end of 2022. For the rest of Europe, the impact will be felt via various channels, with the most significant so far being inflation on the back of high energy prices. If the EU were to ban imports of energy from Russia, or if Russia itself limits or stops gas exports to the EU, the trade impacts would be much more significant. The medium- and long-term outlook for Ukraine, Russia and the rest of Europe has been changed radically by the events of the last few weeks. For Ukraine, if one part of the country is occupied and the other part remains independent, economic outcomes will be very divergent, but the non-occupied part would see many refugees return, would receive massive Western financial support and could look forward to greater integration with the EU. For Russia, the economy will lose its access to Western technological transfer, and this cannot be fully compensated by China; an already meagre medium-term growth outlook has now deteriorated further. Meanwhile there are four main areas of structural change and lasting impact for the EU and Europe more broadly: the EU will get more serious about defence, the green transition will gather pace, broader Eurasian economic integration will be unwound, and the EU accession prospects for countries in Southeast Europe could (and should) improve.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264341161
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 154
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Book Description
This report, Regional Outlook 2023 – The Longstanding Geography of Inequalities, provides novel evidence on the evolution of inequalities between OECD regions across several dimensions (including income and access to services) over the past twenty years.
Author: Stanislav Markus
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Blöchliger Hansjörg
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264119973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 139
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Book Description
This book describes and examines reforms of fiscal federalism and local government in 10 OECD countries implemented over the past decade.
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
ISBN: 9251346089
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 337
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Book Description
The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.
Author: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789264626980
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
This report offers a comprehensive overview of decentralisation policies and reforms in OECD countries and beyond. Sometimes called a "silent" or "quiet" revolution, decentralisation is among the most important reforms of the past 50 years. The report argues that decentralisation outcomes - in terms of democracy, efficiency, accountability, regional and local development - depend greatly on the way it is designed and implemented. Making the most of decentralisation systems is particularly crucial in the context of a "geography of discontent" and growing divides between places that feel left behind by globalisation and technological change and those that may benefit from the opportunities offered by megatrends. The report identifies 10 guidelines for making decentralisation work and allowing it to be conducive to regional development. Beyond the guidelines, the report proposes concrete tools for policy-makers, including detailed sets of recommendations, checklists, pitfalls to avoid and examples of good practices, both in unitary and federal countries.
