The Informational Content of Option Prices as Predictors of Equilibrium Stock Prices PDF Download
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Author: Steven Manaster
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Stock price forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Author: Steven Manaster
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Stock price forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Author: Scott Murray
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
I investigate the relation between option prices and daily stock return serial correlation. I demonstrate that the variance ratio, calculated as the ratio of realized to implied stock return variance, has both a contemporaneous and predictive relation with stock return serial correlation. The ability of the variance ratio to predict future stock return serial correlation gives rise to a daily trading strategy that implements reversal trading on stocks predicted to exhibit large negative serial correlation and momentum trading on stocks with high predicted serial correlation. The trading strategy generates risk-adjusted returns in excess of 6.5% per year.
Author: Durga Prasad Panda
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Options (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 178
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Book Description
There are many measures to price an option. This dissertation investigates a risk-adjusted measure to price the option with an alternative numeraire that retains the expected return of the underlying in the pricing equation. This model is consistent with the Black-Scholes model when their assumptions are imposed and is consistent with the standard capital asset pricing model. Unlike many asset pricing models that rely on historical data, we provide a forward-looking approach for extracting the ex ante return distribution parameters of the underlying from option prices. Using this framework and observing the market prices of options, we jointly extract implied return and implied volatility of the underlying assets for different days-to-maturity using a grid search method of global optima. Our approach does not use a preference structure or information about the market such as the market risk premium to estimate the expected return of the underlying asset. We find that when there are not many near-the-money traded options available our approach provides a better solution to forecast future volatility than the Black-Scholes implied volatility. Further, our results show that option prices reflect a higher expectation of stock return in the short-term, but a lower expectation of stock return in the long-term that is robust to many alternative tests. We further find that ex ante expected returns have a positive and significant cross-sectional relation with ex ante betas even in the presence of firm size, book-to-market, and momentum. The cross-sectional regression estimate of ex ante market risk premium has a statistical significance as well as an economic significance in that it contains significant forward-looking information on future macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, in an ex ante world, firm size is still negatively significant, but book-to-market is also negatively significant, which is the opposite of the ex post results. Our risk-adjusted approach provides a framework for extraction of ex ante information from option prices with alternative assumptions of stochastic processes. In this vein, we provide a risk-adjusted stochastic volatility pricing model and discuss its estimation process.
Author: Hun Y. Park
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 14
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Author: Massimo Guidolin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
Languages : en
Pages : 70
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Author: Allen M. Poteshman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
We find strong evidence of information transmission from the options market to underlying stock prices. Taking advantage of a unique dataset from the Chicago Board Options Exchange, we construct put to call volume ratios for underlying stocks, using only volume initiated by buyers to open new positions. Performing daily cross-sectional analyses from 1990 to 2001, we find that buying stocks with low put/call ratios and selling stocks with high put/call ratios generates an expected return of 40 basis points per day and 1 percent per week. This result is present during each year of our sample period, and is not affected by the exclusion of earnings announcement windows. Moreover, the result is stronger for smaller stocks, indicating that the options market may be a more important avenue for information transmission for stocks with less efficient information flow. Our analysis also sheds light on the type of investor behind the informed option trading. Specifically, we find that option trading from customers of full service brokers provides the strongest predictability, while that from firm proprietary traders is not informative. Furthermore, our analysis shows that while public customers on average trade in the options market as contrarians -- buying fresh new puts on stocks that have done well and calls on stocks that have done poorly, firm proprietary traders exhibit the opposite behavior. Finally, in contrast to the equity options market, we do not find any evidence of informed trading in the index options market.
Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262039370
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 497
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Book Description
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Author: Bernd Scherer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199553432
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 530
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Book Description
This book explores the current state of the art in quantitative investment management across seven key areas. Chapters by academics and practitioners working in leading investment management organizations bring together major theoretical and practical aspects of the field.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Finance
Languages : en
Pages : 878
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Author: Vladimir Kuzin
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783865585097
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
