How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? PDF full book. Access full book title How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? by Mr.Alvar Kangur. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Mr.Alvar Kangur
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513515616
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Get Book Here
Book Description
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Author: Mr.Alvar Kangur
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513515616
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Get Book Here
Book Description
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.
Author: Michael Graff
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Banks and banking, Central
Languages : en
Pages : 64
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Lucrezia Reichlin
Publisher: Centre for Economic Policy Research
ISBN: 1898128839
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 103
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230244408
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1406
Get Book Here
Book Description
Following theseminal Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Volume I , this second volume brings together the finestacademicsworking in econometrics today andexploresapplied econometrics, containing contributions onsubjects includinggrowth/development econometrics and applied econometrics and computing.
Author: Francesco Grigoli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498375855
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35
Get Book Here
Book Description
Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475521308
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Get Book Here
Book Description
This note presents estimates of potential growth and the output gap in Latvia. The estimates suggest that the output has marked below potential in the early 2000s but the output gap becomes positive and large after EU accession. With unemployment still well above its natural level, the output gap is estimated to be negative in 2012, but is expected to narrow gradually and be closed in the next 3–4 years. Potential growth is expected to be substantially lower than in 2002–07.
Author: Georges De Menil
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 144430724X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 256
Get Book Here
Book Description
Top economists provide a concise and accessible evaluation of majordevelopments in trade and trade policy. Economic Policy has earned a reputation around the worldas the one publication that always identifies current and emergingpolicy topics early Papers are specially commissioned from first-class economistsand experts in the policy field The editors are all based at top European economic institutionsand each paper is discussed by a panel of distinguishedeconomists This unique approach guarantees incisive debate and alternativeinterpretations of the evidence
Author: Paul J.J. Welfens
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540287292
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304
Get Book Here
Book Description
Broadening and deepening of economic and political integration are hallmarks of the EU and ASEAN. Analysing the economic and institutional changes in both Europe and Asia, this book emphasizes on banking, financial market dynamics, ICT, and macroeconomic policies. The legal aspects are combined with historical and economic perspectives
Author: Lavan Mahadeva
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134289839
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 359
Get Book Here
Book Description
For monetary policymakers worldwide, developing a practical understanding of how monetary policy transmits to the economy is a day-to-day challenge. The data such policymakers have is imperfect, the maps they use are continually redrawn. With such uncertainty, understanding this complicated issue is rarely straightforward. This book, a collaboration between some of the finest minds working on monetary theory in the world, helps to provide a foundation for understanding monetary policy in all its complex glory. Using models, case studies and new empirical evidence, the contributors to this book help readers on many levels develop their technical expertise. Students of macroeconomics, money and banking and international finance will find this to be a good addition to their reading lists. At the same time, policymakers and professionals within banking will learn valuable lessons from a thorough read of this book's pages.
Author: Eugen Tereanu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498353401
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Get Book Here
Book Description
Potential output estimation plays a crucial role in conducting fiscal policy based on structural balances. Difficulties in estimating potential output could lead to an erroneous policy stance with a consequent impact on growth. This paper analyzes historical data on revisions of actual and potential growth in the European Union and the implication of these revisions for the measurement of fiscal effort using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB). It finds that revisions in output gap estimates were large, at almost 11⁄2 percent of potential GDP on average. Revisions in potential GDP also contributed significantly to revisions in the estimated CAPB, especially during the crisis years. Given these findings and historical correlations, it proposes an indicative rule of thumb for reducing errors in the measurement of fiscal effort by factoring in that about 30 percent of revisions in actual growth capture changes in potential growth. In other words, the standard advice of “letting automatic stabilizers operate fully” in response to a positive/negative growth shocks likely implies a strengthening/weakening of the structural position.
