The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in Middle Income Developing Countries PDF Download
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Author: Mark E. Hanson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Sustainable development
Languages : en
Pages : 76
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Book Description
Author: Mark E. Hanson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Sustainable development
Languages : en
Pages : 76
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Book Description
Author: Amir Sadeghi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484336275
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author: Saeed Moshiri
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Oil price shocks affect macroeconomic performance in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. The recent research on the oil-macroeconomy relationship in the oil-importing countries shows that oil price shocks have asymmetric effects on their economic growth; the adverse effects of higher oil prices are larger than the stimulating effects of lower prices. The effects of oil price shocks on economic performance and their transmission mechanism in oil-exporting countries are different than those in oil-importing countries. In this study, we examine the oil-macroeconomy nexus in the context of oil-exporting developing countries. We set up a VAR model with a GARCH-type oil price shocks to estimate and test the asymmetric effects of oil shocks in six major oil exporting members of OPEC for the period 1970-2009. The model includes oil price shocks and economic growth as two major variables of interest as well as the intermediate variables such as investment, exchange rate, and inflation rate. We find that in oil exporting developing countries, lower oil prices would lead to major revenue cuts and stagnation in the economy. However, higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate to a sustained economic growth.
Author: Lars Matthiessen
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349063614
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 217
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Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475572360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Author: Graeme Ernest John Llewellyn
Publisher: O.E.C.D.
ISBN:
Category : Economic history
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Author: Hakan Berument
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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This paper examines how oil price shocks affect the output growth of selected MENA countries that are considered either net exporters or net importers of this commodity, but are too small to affect oil prices. That an individual country's economic performance does not affect world oil prices is imposed on the Vector Autoregressive setting as an identifying restriction. The estimates suggest that oil price increases have a statistically significant and positive effect on the outputs of Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. However, oil price shocks do not appear to have a statistically significant effect on the outputs of Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. When we further decompose positive oil shocks such as oil demand and oil supply for the latter set of countries, oil supply shocks are associated with lower output growth but the effect of oil demand shocks on output remain positive.
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616353791
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 408
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Book Description
In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.
Author: Andrew MacKillop
Publisher: Burns & Oates
ISBN:
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 200
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Book Description
Case studies analysing the impact of petroleum price increase and monetary policies for major OECD countries on economic adjustment in petroleum exporting countries (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Kenya, Senegal, Peru and Jamaica) - examines commodity Terms of Trade, gross domestic products, current account deficit, external debt, energy consumption, and petroleum product prices; reviews world economic trends, 1970 to 1980, agricultural sector perspectives, and alternative energy source issues in developing countries. Graphs and statistical tables.
