The High-Volume Return Premium and Post-Earnings Announcement Drift PDF Download
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Author: Alina Lerman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
This paper investigates the relationship among trading volume around earnings announcements, earnings forecast errors, and subsequent returns. Prior research finds a positive relation between earnings announcement period trading volume and subsequent returns (the high-volume return premium) and between earnings forecast errors and subsequent returns (post-earnings announcement drift). We find that for a sample of firms followed by analysts these effects are complementary, i.e., each retains incremental ability to predict post-earnings announcement returns. Prior research provides two competing explanations for the high-volume return premium: changes in firm visibility versus differences in risk. We provide evidence that seems to rule out risk-based explanations while supporting the visibility hypothesis.
Author: Alina Lerman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
This paper investigates the relationship among trading volume around earnings announcements, earnings forecast errors, and subsequent returns. Prior research finds a positive relation between earnings announcement period trading volume and subsequent returns (the high-volume return premium) and between earnings forecast errors and subsequent returns (post-earnings announcement drift). We find that for a sample of firms followed by analysts these effects are complementary, i.e., each retains incremental ability to predict post-earnings announcement returns. Prior research provides two competing explanations for the high-volume return premium: changes in firm visibility versus differences in risk. We provide evidence that seems to rule out risk-based explanations while supporting the visibility hypothesis.
Author: Jon A. Garfinkel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This paper examines the relationship between post-earnings announcement returns and different measures of volume at the earnings date. We find that post-event returns are strictly increasing in the component of volume that is unexplained by prior trading activity. We interpret unexplained volume as an indicator of opinion divergence among investors and conclude that post-event returns are increasing in ex-ante opinion divergence. Our evidence is consistent with Varian (1985) who suggests that opinion divergence may be treated as an additional risk factor affecting asset prices.
Author: Wonseok Choi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
In this paper, we develop a simple model in which trading volume contains information about future stock returns. Specifically, our model explains why high trading volume is observed when a firm announces earnings news and how trading volume can be related to the initial underreaction of the stock price. Our model has a clear testable implication that high abnormal trading volume predicts a stronger drift. We test our model's implication and find strong evidence for the model in the case of positive news. Weaker evidence is found in the case of negative news. We also discuss possible explanations for the asymmetric informativeness of trading volume.
Author: Kirsten L. Anderson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
This paper examines the relationship between divergent opinions and post-earnings announcement drift. We provide an improved measure of opinion divergence constructed from the dispersion of order flow across Nasdaq market makers that captures the breadth of divergence that is lost by volume-based measures. We find evidence that both limited participation (in the form of delayed price reaction and short sale constraints) and divergent opinions contribute significantly to drift. We also find that earnings surprises induce permanent upward shifts in opinion divergence, trading volume, and return volatility that last up to nine months following the announcement. Our results suggest that opinion divergence elicits added risk in the form of increased volatility with the resulting returns comprising a component of drift. We document that daily opinion divergence is a priced risk factor over the nine month drift period. The persistence of these relationships suggests that opinion divergence represents a fundamental change in the market's assessment of the announcing firm that extends beyond the announcement period and influences post-announcement stock returns.
Author: Doron Israeli
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cash flow
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
Prior literature demonstrates that an increased trading activity of a firm's stock is associated with abnormal future stock returns (the high-volume return premium) and interprets this phenomenon as evidence that increased visibility generates reductions in cost of capital. Motivated by this interpretation, we investigate whether increased trading activity entails changes in real corporate actions. We document a positive relation between abnormal trading volume, future investment expenditures, and financing cash flows. This positive relation is not subsumed by the arrival of investment-related news or other corporate disclosures, nor by subsequent earnings information, and is concentrated among firms with high financial constraints and firms with lower levels of investor recognition.
Author: Leonard Zacks
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470905905
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 352
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Book Description
Investment pioneer Len Zacks presents the latest academic research on how to beat the market using equity anomalies The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies organizes and summarizes research carried out by hundreds of finance and accounting professors over the last twenty years to identify and measure equity market inefficiencies and provides self-directed individual investors with a framework for incorporating the results of this research into their own investment processes. Edited by Len Zacks, CEO of Zacks Investment Research, and written by leading professors who have performed groundbreaking research on specific anomalies, this book succinctly summarizes the most important anomalies that savvy investors have used for decades to beat the market. Some of the anomalies addressed include the accrual anomaly, net stock anomalies, fundamental anomalies, estimate revisions, changes in and levels of broker recommendations, earnings-per-share surprises, insider trading, price momentum and technical analysis, value and size anomalies, and several seasonal anomalies. This reliable resource also provides insights on how to best use the various anomalies in both market neutral and in long investor portfolios. A treasure trove of investment research and wisdom, the book will save you literally thousands of hours by distilling the essence of twenty years of academic research into eleven clear chapters and providing the framework and conviction to develop market-beating strategies. Strips the academic jargon from the research and highlights the actual returns generated by the anomalies, and documented in the academic literature Provides a theoretical framework within which to understand the concepts of risk adjusted returns and market inefficiencies Anomalies are selected by Len Zacks, a pioneer in the field of investing As the founder of Zacks Investment Research, Len Zacks pioneered the concept of the earnings-per-share surprise in 1982 and developed the Zacks Rank, one of the first anomaly-based stock selection tools. Today, his firm manages U.S. equities for individual and institutional investors and provides investment software and investment data to all types of investors. Now, with his new book, he shows you what it takes to build a quant process to outperform an index based on academically documented market inefficiencies and anomalies.
Author: Thomas J. George
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
The existence of post earnings announcement drift (PEAD) depends strongly on whether stocks' prices are near (far from) their 52-week highs when positive (negative) earnings surprises arrive. We find that the coincidence of these two effects is what generates significant PEAD. Daily returns around current and future earnings announcements follow a similar pattern -- announcement returns are more muted for extreme positive (negative) surprises, the closer (farther) are prices to the 52-week high. In addition, subsequent announcement returns are greater for these firms, consistent with a correction of previous underreaction. This suggests that an important contributing factor to PEAD is investors anchoring their beliefs about fundamental value on the 52-week high, which restrains price reactions to earnings news.
Author: Tomas Tomcany
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783843367813
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
It is a well documented finding in finance theory that share prices drift in the direction of firms' unexpected earnings changes, a phenomenom known as post-earnings announcement drift, or earnings momentum. In this book, I study the stock prices' reaction to firms' quarterly earnings announcements. The book shows that the timeframe in which the drift occurs is related to the size of a firm and is limited in time after the earnings announcement. I further analyze the effect of the number of analysts covering a firm on the magnitude and persistance of post-earnings announcement drift. I document that recent analyst coverage predicts large drifts after the earnings announcements. I suggest several possible explanations, but the evidence seems most consistent with recent analyst coverage providing information about investor (or analyst) expectations regarding firm's future earnings. This book should be useful to professionals in Financial Economics, especially to those interested in Behavioral Finance in stock markets, but also to equity analysts, traders or investors interested in the stocks' response to earnings news.
Author: Owen A. Lamont
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Stocks
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
On average, stock prices rise around scheduled earnings announcement dates. We show that this earnings announcement premium is large, robust, and strongly related to the fact that volume surges around announcement dates. Stocks with high past announcement period volume earn the highest announcement premium, suggesting some common underlying cause for both volume and the premium. We show that high premium stocks experience the highest levels of imputed small investor buying, suggesting that the premium is driven by buying by small investors when the announcement catches their attention.
Author: Linda H. Chen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
One of the contentious issues regarding the post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) is whether the abnormal stock return is driven by investors' delayed reaction to earnings information or by unexpected information shocks subsequent to earnings announcement. In this paper, we disentangle unexpected large changes in stock prices, known as jumps, from total stock returns. Although on average jump occurs only once per firm quarter, it accounts for up to 40% of the return differential between top and bottom SUE deciles. This is evidence that a significant part of PAED is driven by unexpected information shocks. Nevertheless, the drift component still explains at least 50% of the variation of anomalous PEAD returns. The findings suggest that PEAD cannot be entirely attributed to investors' delayed reaction to earnings information, but neither can the hypothesis be ruled out. In particular, we find that delayed reaction is more pronounced following positive earnings surprises.
