Author: Wake Forest University
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781618461254
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: W. Joseph Campbell
Publisher: Univ of California Press
ISBN: 0520397827
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 366

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This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.

Author: Robert S. Erikson
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226922162
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 221

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In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

Author: Herbert B. Asher
Publisher: CQ-Roll Call Group Books
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 198

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Author: Ph D. Michael W. Traugott
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 1483459144
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 322

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Fifth Edition. For the sixth presidential election running, Michael W. Traugott and Paul J. Lavrakas team up to give voters everything they need to know about election polls. When it comes to polls, the stakes are high, which is why this edition has been revised to incorporate information on the latest technologies used for data collection and data analysis. In straightforward language, the authors answer questions such as: - How do political candidates and organizations use poll data? - How do news organizations collect and report poll data? - Why do pollsters use samples? - How do media organizations analyze polls? They also examine common problems and complaints about polls, such as the increasing use of "push polls"-a political telemarketing technique-and polls conducted on the Internet that attract a large number of respondents who may not be representative of the general public.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : North Dakota
Languages : en
Pages : 516

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Author: Ole J. Forsberg
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000205746
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 209

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Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable: Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math—or to focus on it End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections. Author Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.

Author: National Learning Corporation
Publisher: Career Examination
ISBN: 9780837312651
Category : Study Aids
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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The Election Inspector Passbook(R) prepares you for your test by allowing you to take practice exams in the subjects you need to study. It provides hundreds of questions and answers in the areas that will likely be covered on your upcoming exam, including but not limited to: American government and civics; inspection procedures; understand and interpreting written materials; name and number checking; and more.

Author: Robert M Worcester
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349057444
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 258

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