Many Faces of the Gambler's Fallacy PDF Download
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Author: Ruma Falk
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781540657701
Category : Chance
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The series of heads and tails obtained when tossing a fair coin exemplifies a random sequence. Randomness defies a strict definition, yet it is widely used in daily and scientific discourse. When perceiving or producing randomness, people err by exaggeratedly expecting a change after a few identical symbols. This is the gambler's fallacy (GF). Diverse real manifestations of GF, in casino or lottery decisions, expressions in fiction and art, and uses in deciphering codes, are all described, interwoven with stories and anecdotes. The roots of GF are presumably ascribed to one's inability to forget or ignore previous stimuli in a sequence. Students, not only of psychology, and other inquisitive readers may find the GF issue challenging.
Author: Ruma Falk
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781540657701
Category : Chance
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The series of heads and tails obtained when tossing a fair coin exemplifies a random sequence. Randomness defies a strict definition, yet it is widely used in daily and scientific discourse. When perceiving or producing randomness, people err by exaggeratedly expecting a change after a few identical symbols. This is the gambler's fallacy (GF). Diverse real manifestations of GF, in casino or lottery decisions, expressions in fiction and art, and uses in deciphering codes, are all described, interwoven with stories and anecdotes. The roots of GF are presumably ascribed to one's inability to forget or ignore previous stimuli in a sequence. Students, not only of psychology, and other inquisitive readers may find the GF issue challenging.
Author: Joseph Mazur
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400834457
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 297
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Book Description
The hazards of feeling lucky in gambling Why do so many gamblers risk it all when they know the odds of winning are against them? Why do they believe dice are "hot" in a winning streak? Why do we expect heads on a coin toss after several flips have turned up tails? What's Luck Got to Do with It? takes a lively and eye-opening look at the mathematics, history, and psychology of gambling to reveal the most widely held misconceptions about luck. It exposes the hazards of feeling lucky, and uses the mathematics of predictable outcomes to show when our chances of winning are actually good. Mathematician Joseph Mazur traces the history of gambling from the earliest known archaeological evidence of dice playing among Neolithic peoples to the first systematic mathematical studies of games of chance during the Renaissance, from government-administered lotteries to the glittering seductions of grand casinos, and on to the global economic crisis brought on by financiers' trillion-dollar bets. Using plenty of engaging anecdotes, Mazur explains the mathematics behind gambling—including the laws of probability, statistics, betting against expectations, and the law of large numbers—and describes the psychological and emotional factors that entice people to put their faith in winning that ever-elusive jackpot despite its mathematical improbability. As entertaining as it is informative, What's Luck Got to Do with It? demonstrates the pervasive nature of our belief in luck and the deceptive psychology of winning and losing. Some images inside the book are unavailable due to digital copyright restrictions.
Author: Judith Elaine Cowan
Publisher: The Porcupine's Quill
ISBN: 9780889842250
Category : Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 202
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Book Description
'The conundrum at the core of Gambler's Fallacy, author and translator Judith Cowan's seven-story follow-up to her distinguished 1997 debut, More Than Life Itself, involves an impressively erratic cast of fearful and fragile Québécois characters, capriciously transformed into victims of the strange vagaries of chance and serendipitous circumstance. Not unlike Raymond Carver or Alice Munro, Cowan creates heartbreakingly felicitous portraits of Chekhovian elegance, featuring the ordinarily forgotten little folks who, for no apparent reason or logical explanation, have fallen through the cracks. ... Suffused with a largeness of spirit everywhere animated by moments of aching clarity and lyrical grace, Cowan's gritty minimalist vignettes will, if truth be told, simply break the most hardened of readers' hearts. You can bet the farm on it.'
Author: Robert Carroll
Publisher: Turner Publishing Company
ISBN: 1118045637
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 525
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Book Description
A wealth of evidence for doubters and disbelievers "Whether it's the latest shark cartilage scam, or some new 'repressed memory' idiocy that besets you, I suggest you carry a copy of this dictionary at all times, or at least have it within reach as first aid for psychic attacks. We need all the help we can get." -James Randi, President, James Randi Educational Foundation, randi.org "From alternative medicine, aliens, and psychics to the farthest shores of science and beyond, Robert Carroll presents a fascinating look at some of humanity's most strange and wonderful ideas. Refreshing and witty, both believers and unbelievers will find this compendium complete and captivating. Buy this book and feed your head!" -Clifford Pickover, author of The Stars of Heaven and Dreaming the Future "A refreshing compendium of clear thinking, a welcome and potent antidote to the reams of books on the supernatural and pseudoscientific." -John Allen Paulos, author of Innumeracy and A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper "This book covers an amazing range of topics and can protect many people from being scammed." -Stephen Barrett, M.D., quackwatch.org Featuring close to 400 definitions, arguments, and essays on topics ranging from acupuncture to zombies, The Skeptic's Dictionary is a lively, commonsense trove of detailed information on all things supernatural, occult, paranormal, and pseudoscientific. It covers such categories as alternative medicine; cryptozoology; extraterrestrials and UFOs; frauds and hoaxes; junk science; logic and perception; New Age energy; and the psychic. For the open-minded seeker, the soft or hardened skeptic, and the believing doubter, this book offers a remarkable range of information that puts to the test the best arguments of true believers.
Author: Charles T. Clotfelter
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 9780674800984
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 340
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Book Description
With its huge jackpots and heartwarming rags-to-riches stories, the lottery has become the hope and dream of millions of Americans--and the fastest-growing source of state revenue. Despite its popularity, however, there remains much controversy over whether this is an appropriate business for state government and, if so, how this business should be conducted.
Author: Allan N. Wilson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Gambling
Languages : en
Pages : 342
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Book Description
Author: F. Gobet
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN: 9781137272416
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Problem gambling is a perennial issue frequently reported in the media. This book is a comprehensive and up-to-date resource on problem gambling research. It describes the state of the art of the subject and presents the latest developments such as computer modelling of gambling behaviour and risk profiles of gambling products.
Author: Brian Kayser
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 9781580420877
Category : Games & Activities
Languages : en
Pages : 260
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Book Description
The good news: For the average player, baccarat offers the best odds in the house, giving the house barely a 1 per cent edge without using any winning strategies.
Author: Bruce Frey
Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN: 0596553994
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 360
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Book Description
Want to calculate the probability that an event will happen? Be able to spot fake data? Prove beyond doubt whether one thing causes another? Or learn to be a better gambler? You can do that and much more with 75 practical and fun hacks packed into Statistics Hacks. These cool tips, tricks, and mind-boggling solutions from the world of statistics, measurement, and research methods will not only amaze and entertain you, but will give you an advantage in several real-world situations-including business. This book is ideal for anyone who likes puzzles, brainteasers, games, gambling, magic tricks, and those who want to apply math and science to everyday circumstances. Several hacks in the first chapter alone-such as the "central limit theorem,", which allows you to know everything by knowing just a little-serve as sound approaches for marketing and other business objectives. Using the tools of inferential statistics, you can understand the way probability works, discover relationships, predict events with uncanny accuracy, and even make a little money with a well-placed wager here and there. Statistics Hacks presents useful techniques from statistics, educational and psychological measurement, and experimental research to help you solve a variety of problems in business, games, and life. You'll learn how to: Play smart when you play Texas Hold 'Em, blackjack, roulette, dice games, or even the lottery Design your own winnable bar bets to make money and amaze your friends Predict the outcomes of baseball games, know when to "go for two" in football, and anticipate the winners of other sporting events with surprising accuracy Demystify amazing coincidences and distinguish the truly random from the only seemingly random--even keep your iPod's "random" shuffle honest Spot fraudulent data, detect plagiarism, and break codes How to isolate the effects of observation on the thing observed Whether you're a statistics enthusiast who does calculations in your sleep or a civilian who is entertained by clever solutions to interesting problems, Statistics Hacks has tools to give you an edge over the world's slim odds.
Author: Anna Esposito
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 331956904X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 380
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Book Description
This book presents a collection of contributions in the field of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The themes addressed are multidisciplinary in nature, and closely connected in their ultimate aim to identify features from dynamic realistic signal exchanges and invariant machine representations that can be exploited to improve the quality of life of their end users. Mathematical tools like ANNs are currently exploited in many scientific domains because of their solid theoretical background and effectiveness in providing solutions to many demanding tasks such as appropriately processing (both for extracting features and recognizing) mono- and bi-dimensional dynamic signals, solving strong nonlinearities in the data and providing general solutions for deep and fully connected architectures. Given the multidisciplinary nature of their use and the interdisciplinary characterization of the problems they are applied to – which range from medicine to psychology, industrial and social robotics, computer vision, and signal processing (among many others) – ANNs may provide a basis for redefining the concept of information processing. These reflections are supported by theoretical models and applications presented in the chapters of this book. This book is of primary importance for: (a) the academic research community, (b) the ICT market, (c) PhD students and early-stage researchers, (d) schools, hospitals, rehabilitation and assisted-living centers, and (e) representatives of multimedia industries and standardization bodies.
