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Author: James Montier
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470712031
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 243
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Book Description
A detailed guide to overcoming the most frequently encountered psychological pitfalls of investing Bias, emotion, and overconfidence are just three of the many behavioral traits that can lead investors to lose money or achieve lower returns. Behavioral finance, which recognizes that there is a psychological element to all investor decision-making, can help you overcome this obstacle. In The Little Book of Behavioral Investing, expert James Montier takes you through some of the most important behavioral challenges faced by investors. Montier reveals the most common psychological barriers, clearly showing how emotion, overconfidence, and a multitude of other behavioral traits, can affect investment decision-making. Offers time-tested ways to identify and avoid the pitfalls of investor bias Author James Montier is one of the world's foremost behavioral analysts Discusses how to learn from our investment mistakes instead of repeating them Explores the behavioral principles that will allow you to maintain a successful investment portfolio Written in a straightforward and accessible style, The Little Book of Behavioral Investing will enable you to identify and eliminate behavioral traits that can hinder your investment endeavors and show you how to go about achieving superior returns in the process. Praise for The Little Book Of Behavioral Investing "The Little Book of Behavioral Investing is an important book for anyone who is interested in understanding the ways that human nature and financial markets interact." —Dan Ariely, James B. Duke Professor of Behavioral Economics, Duke University, and author of Predictably Irrational "In investing, success means¿being on the right side of most trades. No book provides a better starting point toward that goal than this one." —Bruce Greenwald, Robert Heilbrunn Professor of Finance and Asset Management, Columbia Business School "'Know thyself.' Overcoming human instinct is key to becoming a better investor.¿ You would be irrational if you did not read this book." —Edward Bonham-Carter, Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer, Jupiter Asset Management "There is not an investor anywhere who wouldn't profit from reading this book." —Jeff Hochman, Director of Technical Strategy, Fidelity Investment Services Limited "James Montier gives us a very accessible version of why we as investors are so predictably irrational, and a guide to help us channel our 'Inner Spock' to make better investment decisions. Bravo!" —John Mauldin, President, Millennium Wave Investments
Author: James Montier
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470712031
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 243
Get Book Here
Book Description
A detailed guide to overcoming the most frequently encountered psychological pitfalls of investing Bias, emotion, and overconfidence are just three of the many behavioral traits that can lead investors to lose money or achieve lower returns. Behavioral finance, which recognizes that there is a psychological element to all investor decision-making, can help you overcome this obstacle. In The Little Book of Behavioral Investing, expert James Montier takes you through some of the most important behavioral challenges faced by investors. Montier reveals the most common psychological barriers, clearly showing how emotion, overconfidence, and a multitude of other behavioral traits, can affect investment decision-making. Offers time-tested ways to identify and avoid the pitfalls of investor bias Author James Montier is one of the world's foremost behavioral analysts Discusses how to learn from our investment mistakes instead of repeating them Explores the behavioral principles that will allow you to maintain a successful investment portfolio Written in a straightforward and accessible style, The Little Book of Behavioral Investing will enable you to identify and eliminate behavioral traits that can hinder your investment endeavors and show you how to go about achieving superior returns in the process. Praise for The Little Book Of Behavioral Investing "The Little Book of Behavioral Investing is an important book for anyone who is interested in understanding the ways that human nature and financial markets interact." —Dan Ariely, James B. Duke Professor of Behavioral Economics, Duke University, and author of Predictably Irrational "In investing, success means¿being on the right side of most trades. No book provides a better starting point toward that goal than this one." —Bruce Greenwald, Robert Heilbrunn Professor of Finance and Asset Management, Columbia Business School "'Know thyself.' Overcoming human instinct is key to becoming a better investor.¿ You would be irrational if you did not read this book." —Edward Bonham-Carter, Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer, Jupiter Asset Management "There is not an investor anywhere who wouldn't profit from reading this book." —Jeff Hochman, Director of Technical Strategy, Fidelity Investment Services Limited "James Montier gives us a very accessible version of why we as investors are so predictably irrational, and a guide to help us channel our 'Inner Spock' to make better investment decisions. Bravo!" —John Mauldin, President, Millennium Wave Investments
Author: James Montier
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470687797
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 740
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Book Description
Behavioural investing seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and investing. All too many investors are unaware of the mental pitfalls that await them. Even once we are aware of our biases, we must recognise that knowledge does not equal behaviour. The solution lies is designing and adopting an investment process that is at least partially robust to behavioural decision-making errors. Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner’s Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance explores the biases we face, the way in which they show up in the investment process, and urges readers to adopt an empirically based sceptical approach to investing. This book is unique in combining insights from the field of applied psychology with a through understanding of the investment problem. The content is practitioner focused throughout and will be essential reading for any investment professional looking to improve their investing behaviour to maximise returns. Key features include: The only book to cover the applications of behavioural finance An executive summary for every chapter with key points highlighted at the chapter start Information on the key behavioural biases of professional investors, including The seven sins of fund management, Investment myth busting, and The Tao of investing Practical examples showing how using a psychologically inspired model can improve on standard, common practice valuation tools Written by an internationally renowned expert in the field of behavioural finance
Author: Michael Gilliland
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119782473
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 435
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Book Description
Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400888816
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331
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Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: Richard Oldfield
Publisher: Harriman House Limited
ISBN: 0857192019
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 303
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Book Description
Described by the author as "a slightly autobiographical and heavily biased book about investing", Simple But Not Easy has plenty of interest to the experienced professional, and is aimed also at the interested amateur investor. The theme of the book is that investment is simpler than non-professionals think it is in that the rudiments can be expressed in ordinary English, and picked up by anybody. It is not a science. But investment is also difficult. People on the outside tend to think that anyone on the inside should be able to do better than the market indices. This is not so. Picking the managers who are likely to do better is a challenge. Richard Oldfield begins with a candid confession of some of his worst mistakes and what they have taught him. He discusses the different types of investment, why fees matter, and the importance of measuring performance properly. He also outlines what to look for, and what not to look for in an investment manager, when to fire a manager, and how to be a successful client.
Author: Luke L. Wiley
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118853474
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 240
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Book Description
A new but timeless strategy and mindset that should greatly help investors lower downside risk while achieving market outperformance In The 52-Week Low Formula: A Contrarian Strategy that Lowers Risk, Beats the Market, and Overcomes Human Emotion, wealth manager Luke L. Wiley, CFP examines the principles behind selecting the outstanding companies and great investment opportunities that are being overlooked. Along the way, Wiley offers a melding of the strategies used by such investment giants as Warren Buffett, Howard Marks, Michael Porter, Seth Klarman, and Pat Dorsey. His proven formula helps investors get the upper hand by identifying solid companies that are poised for growth but have fallen out of the spotlight. Shows you how to investigate companies and identify opportunities Includes detailed discussions of competitive advantage, purchase value, return on invested capital, and debt levels Presents several case studies to examine companies that have overcome obstacles by trading around their 52-week lows The 52-Week Low Formula is a must-read for investors and financial advisors who want to break through conventional strategies and avoid common mistakes.
Author: Roman Frydman
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400838185
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304
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Book Description
A powerful challenge to contemporary economics and a new agenda for global finance In the wake of the global financial crisis that began in 2007, faith in the rationality of markets has lost ground to a new faith in their irrationality. The problem, Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue, is that both the rational and behavioral theories of the market rest on the same fatal assumption—that markets act mechanically and economic change is fully predictable. In Beyond Mechanical Markets, Frydman and Goldberg show how the failure to abandon this assumption hinders our understanding of how markets work, why price swings help allocate capital to worthy companies, and what role government can and can't play. The financial crisis, Frydman and Goldberg argue, was made more likely, if not inevitable, by contemporary economic theory, yet its core tenets remain unchanged today. In response, the authors show how imperfect knowledge economics, an approach they pioneered, provides a better understanding of markets and the financial crisis. Frydman and Goldberg deliver a withering critique of the widely accepted view that the boom in equity prices that ended in 2007 was a bubble fueled by herd psychology. They argue, instead, that price swings are driven by individuals' ever-imperfect interpretations of the significance of economic fundamentals for future prices and risk. Because swings are at the heart of a dynamic economy, reforms should aim only to curb their excesses. Showing why we are being dangerously led astray by thinking of markets as predictably rational or irrational, Beyond Mechanical Markets presents a powerful challenge to conventional economic wisdom that we can't afford to ignore.
Author: Michael J. Brogan
Publisher: Lexington Books
ISBN: 0739168401
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 197
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Book Description
This book, by Michael J. Brogan, examines government budgeting through the lens of public budget forecast errors. In examining this aspect of the budgetary process, Brogan helps readers understand levels of political and financial risk that policymakers are willing to accept in estimating the likelihood of accurate budget projections. This title is noteworthy in its innovative, accessible approach to examining the budget process through an analysis of forecast errors. Unlike most public budgeting books, which focus primarily on the technical aspects of budgeting or on the politics of the budget process, this book bridges the technical and political aspects of budgeting, thereby providing a more comprehensive analysis of contemporary issues and research in public budgetary matters. In light of the current financial crisis in the United States, this book is crucial for providing readers with a comprehensive review of the limits of budget projections and how political forces shape the forecasting process. Throughout the text, readers are presented with relevant state-specific mini cases. The mini cases highlight some of the difficulties in projecting future revenue and spending patterns, as well as the political conflict that can ensue. The empirical findings, mini cases, and arguments presented throughout this book are intended to empower readers, giving them the expertise needed to better understand how uncertainty in public budget forecasts affects the budget process. Ultimately, this knowledge can help citizens connect the financial management of a state with its governing patterns.
Author: Dan Gardner
Publisher: McClelland & Stewart
ISBN: 0771035217
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 319
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Book Description
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
