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Author: Antōnēs Samarakēs
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Detective and mystery stories
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
Author: Antōnēs Samarakēs
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Detective and mystery stories
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
Author: Sam L. Savage
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118373588
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 423
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Book Description
A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics
Author: Magdalena Tulli
Publisher: Archipelago
ISBN: 1935744380
Category : Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 177
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Book Description
A single streetcar line runs around the sleepy suburban square of an unnamed city. One day—out of nowhere—a group of hapless refugees pour from the streetcar and set up camp in the square. The residents grow hostile to the disruption and chaos, and eventually take matters into their own hands... Flaw is Tulli’s most intense and personally motivated work to date, while still retaining the signature mind-and word-play so admired by critics and her growing readership.
Author: Adrian Hough
Publisher: John Hunt Publishing
ISBN: 1846943442
Category : Religion
Languages : en
Pages : 177
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Book Description
When we look at the world around us, one of the most common observations is that things have a tendency to go wrong. People make mistakes, have accidents and some of them commit deliberate acts of violence. Disease affects every single species of plant and animal on the planet. Natural disasters kill millions of people and decimate animal populations. Countless people and animals suffer through no fault of their own. Scientists explain these events in various ways depending upon whether they involve errors in human choices and actions or whether they are caused by natural events. Theologians give us a different set of religious explanations. At times it can appear as if there is a fundamental flaw in the universe. In this book, Adrian Hough uses his training and expertise as both a scientist and a theologian to approach this flaw from both directions and comes up with the astonishing result that both sets of reasoning might have the same fundamental explanation.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 274
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Book Description
Author: Cynthea Masson
Publisher: ECW Press
ISBN: 1773051466
Category : Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
Move back through time into the alluring worlds of the Alchemists’ Council The anticipated second book in Cynthea Masson’s series takes readers to Flaw Dimension, centuries before the events of book one. Rebel scribe Genevre, exploring secreted libraries with Dragonsblood pulsing through her young veins, accidentally discovers a 5th-Council manuscript with a long-forgotten alchemical formula whose implications could permanently transform both the Alchemists’ Council and the Rebel Branch. A revolution looms as High Azoth Dracaen strengthens the power of the Rebel Branch, Cedar and Saule take treacherous steps against fellow alchemists, and the unprecedented mutual conjunction of Ilex and Melia changes the fate of all dimensions. With insurgents gathering, Ilex and Melia’s attempt to open a forbidden breach through time could bring salvation — or total destruction — to the elemental balance of the world. The battle over free will for all of humanity continues in The Flaw in the Stone, the remarkable second instalment of this epic fantasy trilogy.
Author: Ben Dobson
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781977080486
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 217
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Book Description
"One of my favourite books this year." - The Review Curmudgeon"An absolute gem of a read!" - Bear Mountain BooksBook 2, The Emperor's Mask, is available now!In a city that runs on magic, it takes a man with none to solve an impossible murder.In a world of elves and dwarves and sprites and mages, Tane Carver is a human with no gift but his wits. Which, to be fair, did get him into the world's most prestigious university of magical technology.For a while.Until his lack of magic was discovered. And then it all came crashing down.But when a student is murdered on campus behind unbreakable wards, Tane gets a second chance. Solving an impossible crime should be easy for the man who fooled the university's best mages for years. Except he's not counting on the head constable being an old flame who isn't so fond of him anymore. Or on Kadka, the half-crazy half-orc who insists she's his partner--whether he likes it or not.Not to mention the masked mage who keeps trying to kill him.Now, Tane's survival depends on the one truth that has never failed him. The flaw in all magic that those who have it prefer to ignore: the mage.Outsmart the mage, and you outsmart the spell.And outsmarting mages is what Tane does best.
Author: Angus Deaton
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691259259
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 392
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Book Description
A Nobel Prize–winning economist tells the remarkable story of how the world has grown healthier, wealthier, but also more unequal over the past two and half centuries The world is a better place than it used to be. People are healthier, wealthier, and live longer. Yet the escapes from destitution by so many has left gaping inequalities between people and nations. In The Great Escape, Nobel Prize–winning economist Angus Deaton—one of the foremost experts on economic development and on poverty—tells the remarkable story of how, beginning 250 years ago, some parts of the world experienced sustained progress, opening up gaps and setting the stage for today's disproportionately unequal world. Deaton takes an in-depth look at the historical and ongoing patterns behind the health and wealth of nations, and addresses what needs to be done to help those left behind. Deaton describes vast innovations and wrenching setbacks: the successes of antibiotics, pest control, vaccinations, and clean water on the one hand, and disastrous famines and the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the other. He examines the United States, a nation that has prospered but is today experiencing slower growth and increasing inequality. He also considers how economic growth in India and China has improved the lives of more than a billion people. Deaton argues that international aid has been ineffective and even harmful. He suggests alternative efforts—including reforming incentives to drug companies and lifting trade restrictions—that will allow the developing world to bring about its own Great Escape. Demonstrating how changes in health and living standards have transformed our lives, The Great Escape is a powerful guide to addressing the well-being of all nations.
Author: Jill Chamberlain
Publisher: University of Texas Press
ISBN: 1477303731
Category : Performing Arts
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
Veteran script consultant Jill Chamberlain discovered in her work that an astounding 99 percent of first-time screenwriters don’t know how to tell a story. These writers may know how to format a script, write snappy dialogue, and set a scene. They may have interesting characters and perhaps some clever plot devices. But, invariably, while they may have the kernel of a good idea for a screenplay, they fail to tell a story. What the 99 percent do instead is present a situation. In order to explain the difference, Chamberlain created the Nutshell Technique, a method whereby writers identify eight dynamic, interconnected elements that are required to successfully tell a story. Now, for the first time, Chamberlain presents her unique method in book form with The Nutshell Technique: Crack the Secret of Successful Screenwriting. Using easy-to-follow diagrams (“nutshells”), she thoroughly explains how the Nutshell Technique can make or break a film script. Chamberlain takes readers step-by-step through thirty classic and contemporary movies, showing how such dissimilar screenplays as Casablanca, Chinatown, Pulp Fiction, The Usual Suspects, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, Silver Linings Playbook, and Argo all have the same system working behind the scenes, and she teaches readers exactly how to apply these principles to their own screenwriting. Learn the Nutshell Technique, and you’ll discover how to turn a mere situation into a truly compelling screenplay story.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aircraft industry
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
