The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries PDF full book. Access full book title The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries by Mr.Chris Papageorgiou. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Mr.Chris Papageorgiou
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455205362
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Get Book
Book Description
This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, we show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output growth. Given existing evidence that LICs were primarily impacted by such a shock in the global financial crisis, our analysis provides some optimism on the chances that LICs will avoid a protracted period of slow growth. However, we also show that there seem to be persistent output losses associated with ED shocks in the medium-run. In terms of policy implications, our analysis provides evidence that countries with lower deficits, lower debt, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and a higher stock of international reserves are more likely to dampen the effects of an ED shock on growth.
Author: Mr.Chris Papageorgiou
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455205362
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Get Book
Book Description
This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, we show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output growth. Given existing evidence that LICs were primarily impacted by such a shock in the global financial crisis, our analysis provides some optimism on the chances that LICs will avoid a protracted period of slow growth. However, we also show that there seem to be persistent output losses associated with ED shocks in the medium-run. In terms of policy implications, our analysis provides evidence that countries with lower deficits, lower debt, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and a higher stock of international reserves are more likely to dampen the effects of an ED shock on growth.
Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475548834
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Get Book
Book Description
This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Author: Mr.Valerio Crispolti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616354127
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 78
Get Book
Book Description
Low-income countries routinely experience exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade, export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—that contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and consumption compared with other countries. Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries presents the findings of an analysis of a range of external shocks faced by these countries, beginning with a discussion of the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic growth, volatility, and welfare. Although sound macroeconomic and prudential policy frameworks are the first line of defense for limiting vulnerability, international reserves constitute the main form of self-insurance against such shocks. The evidence suggests that low-income countries with reserve coverage above three months of imports were better able to smooth consumption and absorption in the face of external shocks compared with those with lower reserve holdings. The analysis also points to the importance of country characteristics and vulnerabilities in assessing reserve adequacy.
Author: Mr. Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513587900
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 23
Get Book
Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498335411
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book
Book Description
Low-income countries are being hit hard by the global financial crisis. They are facing a sharp contraction in export growth, FDI inflows, and remittances, and lower-than-committed aid. But a marked recovery is in prospect for 2010 helped by rising world demand and supported by short-term domestic policies. Countries are using fiscal and other policies to respond to the crisis and should continue to do so, where appropriate, until the economic recovery is clearly underway. However, the risks to debt sustainability are rising and countries should begin preparing to realign policies toward medium-term sustainability once the recovery is clearly on the move. Additional highly concessional donor support is needed to ensure that countries are not forced to make these adjustments prematurely, and to facilitate a smooth return to a sustainable debt path, with strong growth, over the medium term.
Author: Hans Weisfeld
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455216747
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 53
Get Book
Book Description
This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the growth declines are on average well explained by the decline in export demand. Third, if the external environment facing LICs improves as forecast, their growth should rebound sharply. Finally, and contrary to received wisdom, there are few robust relationships between the cross-country growth variation and the policy and structural environment; the main exceptions are reserve coverage and labor-market flexibility.
Author: Mr.Alfredo Baldini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475574606
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
Get Book
Book Description
We develop a DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the financial crisis on Zambia and the role of the monetary policy response. We view the crisis as a combination of three related shocks: a worsening in the terms of the trade, an increase in the country’s risk premium, and a decrease in the risk appetite of local banks. We characterize monetary policy as "stop and go": initially tight, subsequently loose. Simulations of the model broadly match the path of the economy during this period. We find that the initial policy response contributed to the domestic impact of the crisis by further tightening financial conditions. We study the factors driving the "stop" part of policy and derive policy implications for central banks in low-income countries.
Author: Yasemin Bal Gunduz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475599730
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
Get Book
Book Description
This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498338321
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59
Get Book
Book Description
The paper examines the case for contingent financial instruments for low-income countries (LICs), from both the market and official sector. These include commodity price hedging instruments, contingent debt instruments (commodity-linked bonds, deferred repayment loans), and natural disaster insurance, for example. The paper considers the adequacy of the existing framework of ex post and ex ante support to LICs facing exogenous shocks, and examines the need for and possible constraints to greater availability of contingent instruments. Would there be a role for the international community, particularly the IMF and World Bank, in helping to address the constraints that limit development and use of these instruments?
Author: Mustapha K. Nabli
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 9780821385142
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 662
Get Book
Book Description
The book provides one of the most detailed and comprehensive reviews of the growth experience of a group of low and middle income countries before and during the global crisis. It then explores their growth prospects after the recovery and how they may be shaped by the new global economic environment.
