The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations PDF Download
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Author: Yoosoon Chang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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Book Description
In this paper, we examine how economic shocks affect the distribution of household inflation expectations. We show that the dynamics of households' expected inflation distributions are driven by three distinctive functional shocks, which influence the expected inflation distribution through disagreement, level shift and ambiguity. Linking these functional shocks to economic shocks, we find that contractionary monetary shocks increase the average level of inflation expectation with anchoring effects, with a reduction in disagreement and an increase in the share of households expecting future inflation to be between 2 to 4 percent. Such anchoring effects are not observed when the high inflation periods prior to the Volcker disinflation are included. Expansionary government spending shocks have inflationary effects on both short and medium-run inflation expectations, while an increase in personal income tax shocks is inflationary for mediumrun. A surprise increase in gasoline prices increases the level of inflation expectations, but lowers the share of households with 2 percent inflation expectations.
Author: Yoosoon Chang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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Book Description
In this paper, we examine how economic shocks affect the distribution of household inflation expectations. We show that the dynamics of households' expected inflation distributions are driven by three distinctive functional shocks, which influence the expected inflation distribution through disagreement, level shift and ambiguity. Linking these functional shocks to economic shocks, we find that contractionary monetary shocks increase the average level of inflation expectation with anchoring effects, with a reduction in disagreement and an increase in the share of households expecting future inflation to be between 2 to 4 percent. Such anchoring effects are not observed when the high inflation periods prior to the Volcker disinflation are included. Expansionary government spending shocks have inflationary effects on both short and medium-run inflation expectations, while an increase in personal income tax shocks is inflationary for mediumrun. A surprise increase in gasoline prices increases the level of inflation expectations, but lowers the share of households with 2 percent inflation expectations.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Mr. Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified as that which causes measured expectations to diverge from rationality. Using data for the United States, we find that a positive inflation expectations shock is deflationary and contractionary: inflation, output, and interest rates all fall. These results are inconsistent with the standard New Keynesian model, which predicts inflation and interest rate hikes. We discuss possible resolutions to this new puzzle.
Author: Mr.Rudolfs Bems
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498306055
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 13
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Book Description
Many argue that improvements in monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies over the past few decades, have made them more resilient to external shocks. This paper exploits the May 2013 taper tantrum in the United States to study the reaction of 18 large emerging markets to an external shock, conditioning on their degree of inflation expectations' anchoring. We find that while the tapering announcement negatively affected growth prospects regardless of the level of anchoring, countries with weakly anchored inflation expectations experienced larger exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices, hence comparatively higher inflation. We conclude that efforts to improve the extent of anchoring of inflation expectations in emerging markets pay off, as they ease the trade-off that central banks face when external shocks weaken growth prospects and trigger currency depreciations.
Author: Mark Gertler
Publisher: Mit Press
ISBN: 9780262072533
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 432
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Book Description
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.
Author: Alistair Macaulay
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Using a novel decomposition, I show that systematic relationships between information and subjective models across agents distort the aggregate transmission of shocks in a general class of macroeconomic models. I document evidence of such a systematic correlation between household information and subjective models around inflation using unique features of the Bank of England Inflation Attitudes Survey: on average, households with more negative beliefs about the impacts of inflation obtain more information about inflation. A model in which acquiring information about inflation is costly, and observed information affects the perceived relationship of inflation and real incomes, can explain the empirical variation in information and subjective models in the cross-section and over time. The model generates time-varying shock transmission, and a selection effect that weakens the role of information frictions in aggregate dynamics. Through a novel channel, transitory spikes in inflation may become 'baked in' to inflation expectations, but only among those with the most positive subjective models of the effects of inflation.
Author: John M. Roberts
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Author: Carlos Madeira
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Douglas Laxton
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
This paper examines the evidence on asymmetries in the effects of activity on inflation. Data for the G-7 countries are found to strongly support the view that the inflation-activity relationship is nonlinear, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average level of output in an economy subject to demand shocks will be below the level of output at which there is no tendency for inflation to rise or fall, contrary to the implications of linear models. One implication of these results is that policymakers can raise the average level of output over time by responding promptly to demand shocks, thus reducing the variance of output around trend.
Author: Ernesto Pastén
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
We study the transmission of monetary policy shocks in a model in which realistic heterogeneity in price rigidity interacts with heterogeneity in sectoral size and input-output linkages, and derive conditions under which these heterogeneities generate large real effects. Empirically, heterogeneity in the frequency of price adjustment is the most important driver behind large real effects, whereas heterogeneity in input-output linkages contributes only marginally, with differences in consumption shares in between. Heterogeneity in price rigidity further is key in determining which sectors are the most important contributors to the transmission of monetary shocks, and is necessary but not sufficient to generate realistic output correlations. In the model and data, reducing the number of sectors decreases monetary non-neutrality with a similar impact response of inflation. Hence, the initial response of inflation to monetary shocks is not sufficient to discriminate across models and for the real effects of nominal shocks.
