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Author: Michael B. Clement
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This study examines the market response to confirming forecasts. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. The study of confirming forecasts is important because it can provide evidence on the relation between voluntary disclosure and cost of capital. We find that the market's reaction to confirming forecasts is significantly positive, indicating that benefits may accrue to firms that disclose such forecasts. In addition, while we find no significant change in the mean consensus forecasts (a proxy for earnings expectations) around the confirming forecast date, evidence indicates a significant reduction in the mean and median consensus analyst dispersion (a proxy for earnings uncertainty). Finally, we document a positive association between reduction of dispersion of analysts' forecasts and the magnitude of the stock market response.
Author: Michael B. Clement
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This study examines the market response to confirming forecasts. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. The study of confirming forecasts is important because it can provide evidence on the relation between voluntary disclosure and cost of capital. We find that the market's reaction to confirming forecasts is significantly positive, indicating that benefits may accrue to firms that disclose such forecasts. In addition, while we find no significant change in the mean consensus forecasts (a proxy for earnings expectations) around the confirming forecast date, evidence indicates a significant reduction in the mean and median consensus analyst dispersion (a proxy for earnings uncertainty). Finally, we document a positive association between reduction of dispersion of analysts' forecasts and the magnitude of the stock market response.
Author: Peter Easton
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601981945
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 148
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Book Description
Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data focuses on estimating the expected rate of return implied by market prices, summary accounting numbers, and forecasts of earnings and dividends. Estimates of the expected rate of return, often used as proxies for the cost of capital, are obtained by inverting accounting-based valuation models. The author describes accounting-based valuation models and discusses how these models have been used, and how they may be used, to obtain estimates of the cost of capital. The practical appeal of accounting-based valuation models is that they focus on the two variables that are commonly at the heart of valuations carried out by equity analysts -- forecasts of earnings and forecasts of earnings growth. The question at the core of this monograph is -- How can these forecasts be used to obtain an estimate of the cost of capital? The author examines the empirical validity of the estimates based on these forecasts and explores ways to improve these estimates. In addition, this monograph details a method for isolating the effect of any factor of interest (such as cross-listing, fraud, disclosure quality, taxes, analyst following, accounting standards, etc.) on the cost of capital. If you are interested in understanding the academic literature on accounting-based estimates of expected rate of return this monograph is for you. Estimating the Cost of Capital Implied by Market Prices and Accounting Data provides a foundation for a deeper comprehension of this literature and will give a jump start to those who have an interest in these topics. The key ideas are introduced via examples based on actual forecasts, accounting information, and market prices for listed firms, and the numerical examples are based on sound algebraic relations.
Author: Lisa Austin Hinson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 140
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Book Description
I investigate whether managerial motivations for issuing management forecasts impact the relation between forecast policies and the cost of equity capital. Extant research on the relation between voluntary disclosure and the cost of equity capital assumes that management discloses information to credibly adjust investor expectations and, thus, lower cost of capital. My study is motivated by the low likelihood that all management forecasts yield the credible information underlying the beneficial effect on cost of equity capital. Drawing from the literature on management forecast incentives, I classify management forecast motivations other than cost of capital reduction into three categories: (1) compliance with exchange rules, (2) opportunism to benefit managerial self-interests, and (3) opportunism to benefit aligned managerial/existing shareholder interests. I find that, of firms that forecast, those with policies containing higher percentages of forecasts motivated by rule compliance, managerial opportunism, and aligned managerial/existing shareholder opportunism have higher cost of equity capital. Thus, evidence suggests that underlying forecast motivations impact the management earnings forecast policy-cost of equity capital relation.
Author: Michalis Makrominas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Implied cost of capital estimates are typically calculated using analysts' forecasts as proxies for the market's earnings expectations. We examine the case where deviations between investors' expectations and analysts' beliefs, as manifested by analysts' recommendations, cause predictable variation in implied cost of capital. We find that stocks recommended by analysts as Buy or Strong Buy have, ceteris paribus, higher implied cost of capital than stocks recommended as Underperform or Sell, and that the effect is more clearly pronounced in stocks that have been downgraded. We attribute the effect to differential expectations between analysts and investors regarding future profitability, rather than differential expectations regarding systematic risk. We demonstrate that adjusting analysts' earnings forecasts in line with the market's earnings expectations largely eliminates the observed variation, indicating that such corrective mechanisms could and should be incorporated in the estimation of implied cost of capital.
Author: Stephen P. Baginski
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
The 1990s were characterized by substantial increases in the performance of and investor reliance on financial analysts. Because managers possess superior private information and issue forecasts to align investors' expectations with their own, we predict that managers increased the quality of their earnings forecasts during the 1990s in order to keep pace with the improved forward-looking information provided by financial analysts, upon which investors increasingly relied.Using a sample of 2,437 management earnings forecasts, we document an increase in management earnings forecast precision, management earnings forecast accuracy, and managers' tendency to explain earnings forecasts in 1993-1996 relative to 1983-1986. Given that these forecast characteristics are linked to greater informativeness and credibility, we also document that the information content of management earnings forecasts, as measured by the strength of share price responses to forecast news, increased in 1993-1996 relative to 1983-1986. As expected, the increased information content of management forecasts primarily occurred for firms covered by financial analysts.
Author: Christina Dargenidou
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This study focuses on the relation between the cost of equity capital and earnings expectations when the properties of accounting that determine earnings vary across different regulatory regimes. More particularly, it addresses the European setting where different types of GAAP regime have continued to function in the presence of the gradual harmonization of the underlying legal framework, and where the adoption of internationally recognised accounting standards by certain firms has anticipated the requirement for International Financial Reporting Standards. On the basis of estimates of the cost of equity that are implied by analysts' earnings forecasts, the paper provides evidence that financial market integration may have already contributed to mitigating the economic consequences of accounting diversity, and that switching to IFRS could have a short lived impact on capital markets. Moreover, based on firm level transparency and disclosure rankings provided by Standard and Poor's, it is shown how the quality of financial reporting conditions the implied cost of equity under different GAAP.
Author: Cheng Few Lee
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9811202400
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 5053
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Book Description
This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.
Author: Andrew B. Jackson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We empirically examine the associations between the cost of capital and the timeliness of analysts' earnings forecasts, as a proxy for disclosure precision. We document that as the precision of the information increases so does the cost of capital, consistent with prior research showing more timely disclosures are positively associated with the cost of capital, and that the precision of disclosure widens the information gap between informed and uninformed investors in an imperfect market. We also find that at a certain point, more timely analysts' forecasts are not positively associated with the cost of capital, although the relation is mixed.
Author: Wayne R. Guay
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
We evaluate the influence of measurement error in analysts' forecasts on the accuracy of implied cost of capital estimates from various implementations of the 'implied cost of capital' approach, and develop corrections for the measurement error. The implied cost of capital approach relies on analysts' short- and long-term earnings forecasts as proxies for the market's expectation of future earnings, and solves for the implied discount rate that equates the present value of the expected future payoffs to the current stock price. We document predictable error in the implied cost of capital estimates resulting from analysts' forecasts that are sluggish with respect to information in past stock returns. We propose two methods to mitigate the influence of sluggish forecasts on the implied cost of capital estimates. These methods substantially improve the ability of the implied cost of capital estimates to explain cross-sectional variation in future stock returns, which is consistent with the corrections being effective in mitigating the error in the estimates due to analysts' sluggishness.
Author: Hwa Deuk Yi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporate profits
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
