The B-G System of Evaluating Forecasts PDF Download
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Author: Irving I. Gringorten
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Probability forecasts (Meteorology).
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Author: Irving I. Gringorten
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Probability forecasts (Meteorology).
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Irving I. Gringorten
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Probability forecasts (Meteorology)
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
To score a forecast of an event, like the noontime temperature at a city airport, a system has been proposed that would measure the improvement of the forecast over simple climatic information. If the climatic probability of the forecast (F) is PF, and that of the observed event (V) is PV, then the assigned score (sFV) becomes sFV = -ln(1 - P1)P2 - 1, where P1 = min(PF, PV) and P2 = max(PF, PV). A test of the forecaster's skill, however, requires a large set of forecasts and corresponding verifications.
Author: Irving I. Gringorten
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Probability forecasts (Meteorology).
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
To score a forecast of an event, like the noontime temperature at a city airport, a system has been proposed that would measure the improvement of the forecast over simple climatic information. If the climatic probability of the forecast (F) is PF, and that of the observed event (V) is PV, then the assigned score (sFV) becomes sFV = -ln(1 - P1)P2 - 1, where P1 = min(PF, PV) and P2 = max(PF, PV). A test of the forecaster's skill, however, requires a large set of forecasts and corresponding verifications.
Author: Thomas W. Milburn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics
Languages : en
Pages : 1252
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Book Description
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 030915183X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 192
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Book Description
More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Industrial engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 502
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Industrial engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 122
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Author: United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 124
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Book Description
