Bubble Detective: City-Level Analysis of House Price Cycles PDF Download
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Author: Mr. Serhan Cevik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
This paper investigates house price dynamics at high frequency using city-level observations during the period 1994-2022 in Lithuania. We employ multiple time series-based econometric procedures to examine whether real house prices and house price-to-rent ratios exhibit explosive behavior. According to these recursive right-tailed test results, we reject the null hypothesis of no-bubble and find evidence for long and multiple periods of explosive behavior in the real estate market in all major cities during the sample period. While the size of bubbles varies across cities, especially when we use the house price-to-rent ratio, there is clearly a similar boom-bust pattern. Large house price corrections can in turn have adverse effects on economic performance and financial stability, as experienced during the global financial crisis and other episodes in history.
Author: Mr. Serhan Cevik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
This paper investigates house price dynamics at high frequency using city-level observations during the period 1994-2022 in Lithuania. We employ multiple time series-based econometric procedures to examine whether real house prices and house price-to-rent ratios exhibit explosive behavior. According to these recursive right-tailed test results, we reject the null hypothesis of no-bubble and find evidence for long and multiple periods of explosive behavior in the real estate market in all major cities during the sample period. While the size of bubbles varies across cities, especially when we use the house price-to-rent ratio, there is clearly a similar boom-bust pattern. Large house price corrections can in turn have adverse effects on economic performance and financial stability, as experienced during the global financial crisis and other episodes in history.
Author: Peter M. Garber
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262571531
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event. In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.
Author: H. Kent Baker
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199388776
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 311
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Book Description
This book provides an overview of private real estate markets and investments. The 14 chapters are divided into three sections for conventional and alternative real estate investments and regulatory issues. Conventional investable real assets examined are retail spaces, apartments, offices, and industrial facilities owned by corporate entities. Alternative real estate assets are uniquely and extensively addressed. These include healthcare, both for facilities and the pricing to make it an investable asset; infrastructure contains roads, bridges, and public utilities; and resources are in land, agriculture, oil, and gas. The regulatory section includes appraisal and valuation, brokerage and transaction costs, sustainability, and green buildings. Readers should gain a greater appreciation of what is needed to be successful when investing in private real estate markets. The share of real estate in institutional portfolios has risen above a previous 5% target, as investors avoid the risks of low interest rates. The world's wealth is shifting to emerging markets where real estate is already a dominant asset class and public securities markets are limited. Institutions with long horizons avoid publicly traded markets because they want to capture any premium from illiquidity. Real estate involves local and cultural restrictions on land usage, sustainability and on the regulation of the illiquidity. For information about public real estate, read Public Real Estate Markets and Investments.
Author: Piyush Tiwari
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118836626
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 288
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Book Description
The financial deregulation of the last quarter century has meantlarge flows of funds around the world seeking the highestrisk-adjusted return for investors. Real estate is now establishedas an important asset class and advances in information technologyprovide the necessary tools to complement global developments inreal estate finance and investment. A variety of investment vehicles have emerged, andReal EstateFinance in the New Economy examines these along withfinancing and risk in the context of globalization, deregulationand an increasingly integrated international world economy byexploring questions like: How have real estate financial structures evolved as economiesgrow and become internationalised? What role do economic change and financial systems play in thedevelopment of real estate investment? Are the risks associated with the ‘new economy’really new? What is the future direction for real estate financing? The authors develop an economic framework for discussions onindividual financial products to examine how real estate financialstructures change with economic growth and internationalisation andalso to show how developments in real estate finance impacteconomic growth.
Author: Leung, Charles K.Y.
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1789908493
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 480
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Book Description
This Handbook collects a set of academic and accessible chapters to address three questions: What should real estate economists know about macroeconomics? What should macroeconomists know about real estate? What should readers know about the interaction between real estate and macroeconomics?
Author: Steven D. Gjerstad
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 113995203X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 309
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Book Description
In this highly original piece of work, Steven D. Gjerstad and Nobel Laureate Vernon L. Smith analyze the role of housing and its associated mortgage financing as a key element of economic cycles. The authors combine data from both laboratory and real markets to provide insight into the bubble propensity of real-world economic actors and use novel historical analysis on the Great Recession, the Great Depression, and all of the post-World War II recessions to establish the critical roles of housing, private-capital investment, and household and private institutional balance sheets in economic cycles. They develop a model that incorporates household balance sheets and bank balance sheets and offers insights based on this analysis concerning policy going forward, effectively changing the way economists think about economic cycles.
Author: Thomas Sowell
Publisher: Basic Books (AZ)
ISBN: 0465018807
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
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Book Description
Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484381130
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve’s survey of terms of business lending. We find that ex-ante risk taking by banks (as measured by the risk rating of the bank’s loan portfolio) is negatively associated with increases in short-term policy interest rates. This relationship is less pronounced for banks with relatively low capital or during periods when banks’ capital erodes, such as episodes of financial and economic distress. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of monetary policy in financial stability and suggest that monetary policy has a bearing on the riskiness of banks and financial stability more generally.
Author: Peijie Wang
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113454877X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 185
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Book Description
This book provides an economic and econometric analysis of real estate investment and real estate market behaviour. Peijie Wang examines fluctuations in the real estate business to reveal the mechanisms governing the interactions between the industry and other sectors of the economy.
Author: William Curt Hunter
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262582537
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 650
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Book Description
A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.
