Temporal Aggregation and Disaggregation in the ARIMA Process PDF Download
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Author: Daniel O. Stram
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Statistics
Languages : en
Pages : 378
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Author: Daniel O. Stram
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Statistics
Languages : en
Pages : 378
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Author: Massimiliano Marcellino
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Automatic data collection systems
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Author: Manuel Aranzana
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Author: Agustín Maravall
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Maravall and del Río (2001), analized the time aggregation properties of the Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter, which decomposes a time series into trend and cycle, for the case of annual, quarterly, and monthly data, and showed that aggregation of the disaggregate component cannot be obtained as the exact result from direct application of an HP filter to the aggregate series. The present paper shows how, using several criteria, one can find HP decompositions for different levels of aggregation that provide similar results. We use as the main criterion for aggregation the preservation of the period associated with the frequency for which the filter gain is 1/2; this criterion is intuitive and easy to apply. It is shown that the Ravn and Uhlig (2002) empirical rule turns out to be a first order approximation to our criterion, and that alternative -more complex- criteria yield similar results. Moreover, the values of the parameter? of the HP filter, that provide results that are approximately consistent under aggregation, are considerably robust with respect to the ARIMA model of the series. Aggregation is seen to work better for the case of temporal aggregation than for systematic sampling. Still a word of caution is made concerning the desirability of exact aggregation consistency. The paper concludes with a clarification having to do with the questionable spuriousness of the cycles obtained with HP filter.
Author: Bu Hyoung Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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A time series process can be influenced by an interruptive event which starts at a certain time point and so a structural break in either mean or variance may occur before and after the event time. However, the traditional statistical tests of two independent samples, such as the t-test for a mean difference and the F-test for a variance difference, cannot be directly used for detecting the structural breaks because it is almost certainly impossible that two random samples exist in a time series. As alternative methods, the likelihood ratio (LR) test for a mean change and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of squares test for a variance change have been widely employed in literature. Another point of interest is temporal aggregation in a time series. Most published time series data are temporally aggregated from the original observations of a small time unit to the cumulative records of a large time unit. However, it is known that temporal aggregation has substantial effects on process properties because it transforms a high frequency nonaggregate process into a low frequency aggregate process. In this research, we investigate the effects of temporal aggregation on the LR test and the CUSUM test, through the ARIMA model transformation. First, we derive the proper transformation of ARIMA model orders and parameters when a time series is temporally aggregated. For the LR test for a mean change, its test statistic is associated with model parameters and errors. The parameters and errors in the statistic should be changed when an AR(p) process transforms upon the mth order temporal aggregation to an ARMA(P,Q) process. Using the property, we propose a modified LR test when a time series is aggregated. Through Monte Carlo simulations and empirical examples, we show that the aggregation leads the null distribution of the modified LR test statistic being shifted to the left. Hence, the test power increases as the order of aggregation increases. For the CUSUM test for a variance change, we show that two aggregation terms will appear in the test statistic and have negative effects on test results when an ARIMA(p,d,q) process transforms upon the mth order temporal aggregation to an ARIMA(P,d,Q) process. Then, we propose a modified CUSUM test to control the terms which are interpreted as the aggregation effects. Through Monte Carlo simulations and empirical examples, the modified CUSUM test shows better performance and higher test powers to detect a variance change in an aggregated time series than the original CUSUM test.
Author: Terry Barker
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317829190
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 367
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Book Description
In this book, first published in 1990, leading theorists and applied economists address themselves to the key questions of aggregation. The issues are covered both theoretically and in wide-ranging applications. Of particular intrest is the optimal aggregation of trade data, the need for micro-modelling when imoprtant non-linearities are present (for example, tax exhaustion in modelling company behaviour) and the use of a micro-model to stimulate labour supply behaviour in a macro-model of the Netherlands.
Author: Jean-Claude Thill
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030436942
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 469
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Book Description
This book presents cutting‐edge research on urban and regional systems applying modern spatial analytical techniques of Geographic Information Science & Technologies (GIS&T), spatial statistics, and location modeling. The contributions, written by leading scholars from around the globe, adopt a spatially explicit analytical perspective and highlight methodological innovations and substantive breakthroughs on many facets of the socioeconomic and environmental reality of urban and regional contexts. The book is divided into three parts: The first part offers an introduction to the research field, while the second part discusses critical issues in urban growth and urban management, presenting case studies on city and urban environments, their growth, data infrastructures and spatial and management issues. The third part then broadens the analysis to the regional scale, addressing growth, convergence and adaptation to new economic and information‐based realities. This book appeals to scholars of spatial and regional sciences as well as to policy decision-makers interested in advanced methods of spatial analysis, location modeling, and GIS&T.
Author: Douglas C. Montgomery
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118745159
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 670
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Book Description
Praise for the First Edition "...[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics." -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts. Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies as well as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including health care, environmental studies, engineering, and finance More than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®, and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data New material on frequency domain and spatial temporal data analysis Expanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum with applications as well as transfer and intervention model functions A supplementary website featuring PowerPoint® slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate and graduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book is also an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers who need to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.
Author: William W. S. Wei
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 342
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Author: Agustín Maravall
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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