System Priors PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download System Priors PDF full book. Access full book title System Priors by Michal Andrle. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475548818
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duration of response of inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors represent a very transparent and economically meaningful way of formulating priors about parameters, without the unintended consequences of independent priors about individual parameters. System priors may complement or also substitute for independent marginal priors. The new philosophy of formulating priors is motivated, explained and illustrated using a structural model for monetary policy.
Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475548818
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duration of response of inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors represent a very transparent and economically meaningful way of formulating priors about parameters, without the unintended consequences of independent priors about individual parameters. System priors may complement or also substitute for independent marginal priors. The new philosophy of formulating priors is motivated, explained and illustrated using a structural model for monetary policy.
Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475555822
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 18
Get Book Here
Book Description
The paper introduces “system priors”, their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple and illustrative application. System priors were devised by Andrle and Benes (2013) as a tool to incorporate prior knowledge into an economic model. Unlike priors about individual parameters, system priors offer a simple and efficient way of formulating well-defined and economically-meaningful priors about high-level model properties. The generality of system priors are illustrated using an AR(2) process with a prior that most of its dynamics comes from business-cycle frequencies.
Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475555849
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 18
Get Book Here
Book Description
The paper introduces “system priors”, their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple and illustrative application. System priors were devised by Andrle and Benes (2013) as a tool to incorporate prior knowledge into an economic model. Unlike priors about individual parameters, system priors offer a simple and efficient way of formulating well-defined and economically-meaningful priors about high-level model properties. The generality of system priors are illustrated using an AR(2) process with a prior that most of its dynamics comes from business-cycle frequencies.
Author: United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Payrolls
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: McCoy Williams
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437903959
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 18
Get Book Here
Book Description
In 1995, the DoD began an effort to implement a standard departmentwide travel system, the Defense Travel System (DTS). This testimony focuses on prior reporting concerning: (1) the lack of quantitative metrics to measure the extent to which DTS is actually being used; (2) weaknesses with DTS¿s requirements mgmt. and system testing; and (3) two key assumptions related to the estimated cost savings in the Sept. 2003 DTS economic analysis were not reasonable. Also highlights actions that DoD could explore to help streamline its administrative travel processes such as using a commercial database to identify unused airline tickets. Includes recommendations. Charts and tables.
Author: Genshiro Kitagawa
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461207614
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 265
Get Book Here
Book Description
Smoothness Priors Analysis of Time Series addresses some of the problems of modeling stationary and nonstationary time series primarily from a Bayesian stochastic regression "smoothness priors" state space point of view. Prior distributions on model coefficients are parametrized by hyperparameters. Maximizing the likelihood of a small number of hyperparameters permits the robust modeling of a time series with relatively complex structure and a very large number of implicitly inferred parameters. The critical statistical ideas in smoothness priors are the likelihood of the Bayesian model and the use of likelihood as a measure of the goodness of fit of the model. The emphasis is on a general state space approach in which the recursive conditional distributions for prediction, filtering, and smoothing are realized using a variety of nonstandard methods including numerical integration, a Gaussian mixture distribution-two filter smoothing formula, and a Monte Carlo "particle-path tracing" method in which the distributions are approximated by many realizations. The methods are applicable for modeling time series with complex structures.
Author: Jim Albert
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351030132
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 553
Get Book Here
Book Description
Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.
Author: Abraham D. Flaxman
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780295991849
Category : Epidemiology
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
To provide the tools and knowledge needed in efforts to improve the health of the world's populations, researchers collaborated on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010. The study produced comprehensive estimates of over 200 diseases and health risk factors in 187 countries over two decades, results that will be used by governments and non-governmental agencies to inform priorities for global health research, policies, and funding. Integrated Meta-Regression Framework for Descriptive Epidemiology is the first book-length treatment of model-based meta-analytic methods for descriptive epidemiology used in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. In addition to collecting the prior work on compartmental modeling of disease, this book significantly extends the model, by formally connecting the system dynamics model of disease progression to a statistical model of epidemiological rates and demonstrates how the two models were combined to allow researchers to integrate relevant data. Practical applications of the model to meta-analysis of more than a dozen different diseases complement the theoretical foundations of the integrative systems modeling of disease in populations. The book concludes with a detailed description of the future directions for research in model-based meta-analysis of descriptive epidemiological data. Abraham Flaxman is assistant professor of global health in the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
Author: American Bar Association. House of Delegates
Publisher: American Bar Association
ISBN: 9781590318737
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 216
Get Book Here
Book Description
The Model Rules of Professional Conduct provides an up-to-date resource for information on legal ethics. Federal, state and local courts in all jurisdictions look to the Rules for guidance in solving lawyer malpractice cases, disciplinary actions, disqualification issues, sanctions questions and much more. In this volume, black-letter Rules of Professional Conduct are followed by numbered Comments that explain each Rule's purpose and provide suggestions for its practical application. The Rules will help you identify proper conduct in a variety of given situations, review those instances where discretionary action is possible, and define the nature of the relationship between you and your clients, colleagues and the courts.
Author: Xuemin Lin
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3642412300
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 550
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book constitutes the proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Web Information Systems Engineering, WISE 2013, held in Nanjing, China, in October 2013. The 48 full papers, 29 short papers, and 10 demo and 5 challenge papers, presented in the two-volume proceedings LNCS 8180 and 8181, were carefully reviewed and selected from 198 submissions. They are organized in topical sections named: Web mining; Web recommendation; Web services; data engineering and database; semi-structured data and modeling; Web data integration and hidden Web; challenge; social Web; information extraction and multilingual management; networks, graphs and Web-based business processes; event processing, Web monitoring and management; and innovative techniques and creations.
