Stock Market Dispersion and Real Economic Activity PDF Download
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Author: Prakash Loungani
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Stock exchanges
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
Author: Prakash Loungani
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Stock exchanges
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
Author: Jörg Döpke
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Author: Timotheos Angelidis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We provide evidence using data from the G7 countries suggesting that return dispersion may serve as an economic state variable in that it reliably predicts time-variation in economic activity, market returns, the value and momentum premia and market volatility. A relatively high return dispersion predicts a deterioration in business conditions, a higher value premium, a smaller momentum premium and lower market returns. Dispersion based market and factor timing strategies outperform out-of-sample buy and hold strategies. The evidence are robust to alternative specifications of return dispersion and are not driven by US data. Return dispersion conveys incremental information relative to idiosyncratic risk.
Author: Jesper Rangvid
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192636278
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 240
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Book Description
In the long run, economies grow. Over the shorter-term business cycle, economic activity contracts and expands. From Main Street to Wall Street examines both the long-run relation between economic growth and stock returns and the shorter-term business-cycle relation. It examines the complex relationship between the economy and the stock market, and guides readers through the fascinating interaction between economic activity and financial markets. From Main Street to Wall Street draws heavily on data, supporting academic theories with empirical facts, and backing up arguments in intuitive ways. It discusses how investors can use knowledge of economic activity and financial markets to formulate expectations to future stock returns, and helps scholars and practitioners navigate financial markets by understanding the economy.
Author: Olan Henry
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780734040053
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
In this paper, we present a general model of the joint data generating process underlying economic activity and stock market returns allowing for complex nonlinear feedbacks and interdependencies between the conditional means and conditional volatilities of the variables. We propose statistics that capture the long and short run responses of the system to the arrival of fundamental and non-fundamental news, conditioning on the sign and time of arrival of the news. The model is applied to US data. We find that there are significant differences between the short and long run responses of economic activity and stock returns to the arrival of news. Moreover, for certain classifications of news, the respective responses of economic activity and stock returns vary according to the nature of the news and the phase of the business cycle at which the news arrives.
Author: Shigeyuki Hamori
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1441992081
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 140
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Book Description
An Empirical Investigation of Stock Markets: The CCF Approach attempts to make an empirical contribution to the literature on the movements of stock prices in major economies, i.e. Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA. Specifically, the cross-correlation function (CCF) approach is used to analyze the stock market. This volume provides some empirical evidence regarding the economic linkages among a group of different countries. Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 analyze the international linkage of stock prices among Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA. Chapter 2 applies the standard approach, whereas Chapter 3 uses the CCF approach. Chapter 4 analyzes the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates. Chapter 5 analyzes the relationship among stock prices, exchange rates, and real economic activities. Chapter 6 summarizes the main results obtained in each chapter and comments on the possible directions of future research.
Author: Mathias Binswanger
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 392
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Book Description
Examining the role of speculative bubbles in the stock market, this text argues that, provided they are sustainable, bubbles may have a positive effect on the market. They may provide additional investment opportunities with the potential to increase aggregate profits and improve economic welfare.
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1933019158
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 117
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Book Description
Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226092127
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 444
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Book Description
Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
Author: Stefano Giglio
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We analyze how investor expectations about economic growth and stock returns changed during the February-March 2020 stock market crash induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as during the subsequent partial stock market recovery. We surveyed retail investors who are clients of Vanguard at three points in time: (i) on February 11-12, around the all-time stock market high, (ii) on March 11-12, after the stock market had collapsed by over 20%, and (iii) on April 16-17, after the market had rallied 25% from its lowest point. Following the crash, the average investor turned more pessimistic about the short-run performance of both the stock market and the real economy. Investors also perceived higher probabilities of both further extreme stock market declines and large declines in short-run real economic activity. In contrast, investor expectations about long-run (10-year) economic and stock market outcomes remained largely unchanged, and, if anything, improved. Disagreement among investors about economic and stock market outcomes also increased substantially following the stock market crash, with the disagreement persisting through the partial market recovery. Those respondents who were the most optimistic in February saw the largest decline in expectations, and sold the most equity. Those respondents who were the most pessimistic in February largely left their portfolios unchanged during and after the crash.
