Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails PDF full book. Access full book title Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781544508054
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781544508054
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471152804
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 536
Get Book Here
Book Description
Destined to become a market classic, Dynamic Hedging is the only practical reference in exotic options hedgingand arbitrage for professional traders and money managers Watch the professionals. From central banks to brokerages to multinationals, institutional investors are flocking to a new generation of exotic and complex options contracts and derivatives. But the promise of ever larger profits also creates the potential for catastrophic trading losses. Now more than ever, the key to trading derivatives lies in implementing preventive risk management techniques that plan for and avoid these appalling downturns. Unlike other books that offer risk management for corporate treasurers, Dynamic Hedging targets the real-world needs of professional traders and money managers. Written by a leading options trader and derivatives risk advisor to global banks and exchanges, this book provides a practical, real-world methodology for monitoring and managing all the risks associated with portfolio management. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of Empirica Capital LLC, a hedge fund operator, and a fellow at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He has held a variety of senior derivative trading positions in New York and London and worked as an independent floor trader in Chicago. Dr. Taleb was inducted in February 2001 in the Derivatives Strategy Hall of Fame. He received an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from University Paris-Dauphine.
Author: Jayakrishnan Nair
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1009062964
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 266
Get Book Here
Book Description
Heavy tails –extreme events or values more common than expected –emerge everywhere: the economy, natural events, and social and information networks are just a few examples. Yet after decades of progress, they are still treated as mysterious, surprising, and even controversial, primarily because the necessary mathematical models and statistical methods are not widely known. This book, for the first time, provides a rigorous introduction to heavy-tailed distributions accessible to anyone who knows elementary probability. It tackles and tames the zoo of terminology for models and properties, demystifying topics such as the generalized central limit theorem and regular variation. It tracks the natural emergence of heavy-tailed distributions from a wide variety of general processes, building intuition. And it reveals the controversy surrounding heavy tails to be the result of flawed statistics, then equips readers to identify and estimate with confidence. Over 100 exercises complete this engaging package.
Author: P. Hall
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 1483263223
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 321
Get Book Here
Book Description
Martingale Limit Theory and Its Application discusses the asymptotic properties of martingales, particularly as regards key prototype of probabilistic behavior that has wide applications. The book explains the thesis that martingale theory is central to probability theory, and also examines the relationships between martingales and processes embeddable in or approximated by Brownian motion. The text reviews the martingale convergence theorem, the classical limit theory and analogs, and the martingale limit theorems viewed as the rate of convergence results in the martingale convergence theorem. The book explains the square function inequalities, weak law of large numbers, as well as the strong law of large numbers. The text discusses the reverse martingales, martingale tail sums, the invariance principles in the central limit theorem, and also the law of the iterated logarithm. The book investigates the limit theory for stationary processes via corresponding results for approximating martingales and the estimation of parameters from stochastic processes. The text can be profitably used as a reference for mathematicians, advanced students, and professors of higher mathematics or statistics.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Penguin Press
ISBN: 9780141988368
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 256
Get Book Here
Book Description
The Logic and Statistics of Fat Tails is the definitive source on fat-tailed distribution and an essential technical read for students, accountants and those working in finance.
Author: Jeffrey McGinn
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 0071784918
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 385
Get Book Here
Book Description
Reshape your investing strategy for an increasingly uncertain world “An engrossing, fast-paced, terrific read for anyone interested in the financial imbalances due to too much reliance on math and too little respect for indeterminacy.” —Tyler Durden, ZeroHedge.com The world does not unfold according to a fixed set of rules. It is a dynamical system whose evolution looks like a bell curve with fat “tails.” The same is true of financial markets. However, every day we rely on the certainty and precision of mathematical strategies that assume the contrary to control and grow wealth in markets. Tail Risk Killers shows you how the rigidity of model-based thinking has led to the fragility of today’s global financial marketplace, and it explains how to use adaptive trading strategies to mitigate risk in impending market conditions. Risk management veteran Jeff McGinn pokes holes in prevalent assumptions about how financial markets act that tend to underestimate the likelihood of occurrence of extreme events. Through clear, conversational writing, real-world anecdotes, and easy-tofollow formulas, he provides a glimpse into the way tomorrow’s successful traders are viewing financial markets—with an eye for probability distributions. While illustrating how to protect your assets from tail risk, he shows you how to: Implement the six axioms for risk management Prepare for the unintended consequences of central banks suppressing tail risk Identify and avoid the dark risks hidden in today’s derivative-laden financial system Anticipate the fate of credit default swaps that may not face extinction McGinn argues that the intervention of central banks has robbed global markets of their opportunities to adapt, but this highly relevant book shows you that it is not too late to adapt your portfolio to survive the extreme events that happen more often than popular financial models suggest. Tail Risk Killers helps you discover useful information and processes beyond the focus of industry standards, helps you connect the dots of evolving trading strategies and time your next trade for maximum profitability.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: National Geographic Books
ISBN: 059324365X
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
The landmark five-book series--all together in one boxed set The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don't understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This boxed set includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME
Author: Jana Jurecková
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471822219
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 496
Get Book Here
Book Description
A broad and unified methodology for robust statistics—with exciting new applications Robust statistics is one of the fastest growing fields in contemporary statistics. It is also one of the more diverse and sometimes confounding areas, given the many different assessments and interpretations of robustness by theoretical and applied statisticians. This innovative book unifies the many varied, yet related, concepts of robust statistics under a sound theoretical modulation. It seamlessly integrates asymptotics and interrelations, and provides statisticians with an effective system for dealing with the interrelations between the various classes of procedures. Drawing on the expertise of researchers from around the world, and covering over a decade's worth of developments in the field, Robust Statistical Procedures: Asymptotics and Interrelations: Discusses both theory and applications in its two parts, from the fundamentals to robust statistical inference Thoroughly explores the interrelations between diverse classes of procedures, unlike any other book Compares nonparametric procedures with robust statistics, explaining in detail asymptotic representations for various estimators Provides a timesaving list of mathematical tools for the problems under discussion Keeps mathematical abstractions to a minimum, in spite of its largely theoretical content Includes useful problems and exercises at the end of each chapter Offers strategies for more complex models when using robust statistical procedures Self-contained and rounded in approach, this book is invaluable for both applied statisticians and theoretical researchers; for graduate students in mathematical statistics; and for anyone interested in the influence of this methodology.
Author: Mike Steel
Publisher: SIAM
ISBN: 161197447X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 302
Get Book Here
Book Description
Phylogenetics is a topical and growing area of research. Phylogenies (phylogenetic trees and networks) allow biologists to study and graph evolutionary relationships between different species. These are also used to investigate other evolutionary processes?for example, how languages developed or how different strains of a virus (such as HIV or influenza) are related to each other. This self-contained book addresses the underlying mathematical theory behind the reconstruction and analysis of phylogenies. The theory is grounded in classical concepts from discrete mathematics and probability theory as well as techniques from other branches of mathematics (algebra, topology, differential equations). The biological relevance of the results is highlighted throughout. The author supplies proofs of key classical theorems and includes results not covered in existing books, emphasizes relevant mathematical results derived over the past 20 years, and provides numerous exercises, examples, and figures.
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 1588367673
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 369
Get Book Here
Book Description
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
