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Author: Shahrokh Fardoust
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 76
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Book Description
Countries and international organizations working on longer-range development issues depend on long-term quantitative projections and scenario analysis. Such forecasting has become increasingly challenging, thanks to the rapid pace of globalization, technological progress, the interplay among them, and enhanced connectivity among people. As a result, seemingly isolated events can quickly lead to wide-ranging and lasting regional or even global consequences. This paper examines the problem of long-term economic forecasting in the face of increased complexity and uncertainty. With the benefit of hindsight, it scrutinizes past long-term qualitative and quantitative projections for the 1990s in order to draw lessons on how an institution can and should conduct long-term forecasting and policy analysis. The main conclusions are that policy makers and researchers across the world urgently need to see the big picture if they are to deal with the specific challenges and opportunities they will face over the long term as economies and global linkages undergo major structural changes under conditions of considerable uncertainty and volatility. Global institutions need to have strong research programs that work in close collaboration with other international organizations, academic centers, and independent experts on important long-term development issues ("blue sky" issues) and megatrends. These institutions need to build on their comparative strengths and form teams of in-house researchers and global experts who work on state-of-the-art models related to globalization, technological progress and innovations, climate change, demographic shifts, population, and labor force quality and their policy implications at both the global and country levels. Researchers should be encouraged to consider how global challenges such as financial crises, climate change, and infectious diseases can lead to breaks in economic trends and regime change and how such breaks affect economic activity. Alternative scenarios need to be created that incorporate the views of contrarian forecasters, including forecasts of possible shocks.
Author: Shahrokh Fardoust
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 76
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Book Description
Countries and international organizations working on longer-range development issues depend on long-term quantitative projections and scenario analysis. Such forecasting has become increasingly challenging, thanks to the rapid pace of globalization, technological progress, the interplay among them, and enhanced connectivity among people. As a result, seemingly isolated events can quickly lead to wide-ranging and lasting regional or even global consequences. This paper examines the problem of long-term economic forecasting in the face of increased complexity and uncertainty. With the benefit of hindsight, it scrutinizes past long-term qualitative and quantitative projections for the 1990s in order to draw lessons on how an institution can and should conduct long-term forecasting and policy analysis. The main conclusions are that policy makers and researchers across the world urgently need to see the big picture if they are to deal with the specific challenges and opportunities they will face over the long term as economies and global linkages undergo major structural changes under conditions of considerable uncertainty and volatility. Global institutions need to have strong research programs that work in close collaboration with other international organizations, academic centers, and independent experts on important long-term development issues ("blue sky" issues) and megatrends. These institutions need to build on their comparative strengths and form teams of in-house researchers and global experts who work on state-of-the-art models related to globalization, technological progress and innovations, climate change, demographic shifts, population, and labor force quality and their policy implications at both the global and country levels. Researchers should be encouraged to consider how global challenges such as financial crises, climate change, and infectious diseases can lead to breaks in economic trends and regime change and how such breaks affect economic activity. Alternative scenarios need to be created that incorporate the views of contrarian forecasters, including forecasts of possible shocks.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Franklin Allen
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191035130
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 576
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Book Description
Substantial progress in the fight against extreme poverty was made in the last two decades. But the slowdown in global economic growth and significant increases in income inequality in many developed and developing countries raise serious concerns about the continuation of this trend into the 21st century. The time has come to seriously think about how improvements in official global governance, coupled with and reinforced by rising activism of 'global citizens' can lead to welfare-enhancing and more equitable results for global citizens through better national and international policies. This book examines the factors that are most likely to facilitate the process of beneficial economic growth in low-, middle-, and high-income countries. It examines past, present, and future economic growth; demographic changes; the hyperglobalization of trade; the effect of finance on growth; climate change and resource depletion; and the sense of global citizenship and the need for global governance in order to draw longer-term implications, identify policy options for improving the lives of average citizens around the world, and make the case for the need to confront new challenges with truly global policy responses. The book documents how demographic changes, convergence, and competition are likely to bring about massive shifts in the sectoral and geographical composition of global output and employment, as the center of gravity of the global economy moves toward Asia and emerging economies elsewhere. It shows that the legacies of the 2008-09 crisis-high unemployment levels, massive excess capacities, and high debt levels-are likely to reduce the standard of living of millions of people in many countries over a long period of adjustment and that fluctuations in international trade, financial markets, and commodity prices, as well as the tendency of institutions at both the national and international level to favor the interests of the better-off and more powerful pose substantial risks for citizens of all countries. The chapters and their policy implications are intended to stimulate public interest and facilitate the exchange of ideas and policy dialogue.
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464803625
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 299
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Book Description
In 2013, the World Bank Group adopted two new goals to guide its work: ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. More specifically, the goals are to reduce extreme poverty in the world to less than 3 percent by 2030, and to foster income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population in each country. While poverty reduction has been a mainstay of the World Bank s mission for decades, the Bank has now set a specific goal and timetable, and for the first time, the Bank has explicitly included a goal linked to ensuring that growth is shared by all. The discussion until now has centered primarily on articulating the new goals. This report, the latest in World Bank s Policy Research Report series, goes beyond that and lays out their conceptual underpinnings, discusses their relative strengths and weaknesses by contrasting them with alternative indicators, and proposes empirical approaches and requirements to track progress towards the goals. The report makes clear that the challenges posed by the World Bank Group s new stance extend not just to the pursuit of these goals but, indeed, to their very definition and empirical content. The report also argues that an improved data infrastructure, consisting of many elements including the collection of more and better survey data, is critical to ensure that progress towards these goals can be measured, and policies to help achieve them can be identified and prioritized.
Author: Rigoberto Ariel Yépez-García
Publisher: Inter-American Development Bank
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 82
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Book Description
With rapid energy growth in the past 40 years, the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region has maintained a steady increase in electricity needs above the global level. While there is no question that demand will remain strong over the next two decades, what remains to be seen is what kind of energy matrix will be used to meet that appetite and what will be the investments going into the industry. This report makes an attempt to answer these critical questions by taking a deep look into the demand and supply side of the industry. To this end, it will seek to (i) identify the amount of demand growth until 2040, (ii) project the electricity generation matrix by each energy source, and (iii) determine the investment requirements by source, based on cost efficiency criteria, for regulators and utilities’ consideration.
Author: James Morrell
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351744577
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 170
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Book Description
This title was first published in 2001. Forecasting is an essential discipline in the planning and running of a business: not only for the business plan and annual budget but for the appraisal of investment projects, the commissioning of research as well as the appraisal of the competition and the feasibility of making acquisitions. Managers are continually confronted with the need to take decisions, and being able to construct a route map of the future is a key way of determining a course of action. This book offers a practical guide to forecasting the environment in which a firm operates. The author goes through the key areas which can affect a business. He includes those which are out of the firm's control such as fiscal and monetary policy, population levels and the labour market; and those that are, such as costs, prices, profits and product development.
Author: Stephen Broadberry
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139448358
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 363
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Book Description
This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.
Author: Hans G. Graf
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN: 0313017417
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 264
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Book Description
Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose. This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and—in special cases—cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.
Author: Shahrokh Fardoust
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Book Description
Deregulation and liberalization of product, labor, and financial markets -- together with higher levels of investment and rapid technological advances in industrial and services sectors -- should make the 1990s a period of rapid growth in the high -income OECD countries and a number of leading developing countries. But the pattern of international financial flows is likely to perpetuate two tracks of high and low growth in the developing world.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 193
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Book Description
