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Author: Ryan Michael Remondelli
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Meteorology
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
New England (NE) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) can produce significant damage, as well as provide increased forecast track and intensity complexity for forecasters. This is the result of the fact that these TCs recurve, often undergo extratropical transition, and are also forced via midlatitude dynamics that can act as a source of simulation track, structural, and intensity uncertainty. Consequently, not only do forecasters still struggle with forecasting NE TCs in real-time, but the region has had few such cases to quantify our ability to predict these storms in an age when they can now be explicitly resolved by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The track predictability of historical landfalling NE TCs was explored in this study through hindcasts of all landfalling NE TCs from 1900-2011. Utilizing version 4.1.1 of the Weather Forecast and Research Model Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with two outer fixed domains (27 km, 9km), as well as a vortex-following inner domain (3 km), 18 cases were examined beginning 7 days prior landfall. As a result of utilizing relatively coarse ERA-20C analysis as boundary and initial conditions, WRF's vortex removal and insertion scheme was employed to provide more plausible initial conditions for the hindcasts that can be provided by ERA-20C alone. The resulting total-track, cross-track, and along-track errors were calculated and then compared to various recent model track forecast errors as well as the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) official track forecast errors. The evolution of the synoptic-scale patterns leading up to the time of landfall for these 18 TCs was then investigated. The distance of the simulated TCs to their surrounding troughs and ridges was also investigated. An objective climatology of the nearby trough, ridge, and jet axis locations was determined and analyzed. This analysis found that the average predictability of the historical NE TCs was low compared to a recent NHC climatology of forecast track errors. Lead times for when landfall projections occurred on long track Main Development Region storms were between 2 and 3 days before landfall. These results argue that the predictability of NE TCs utilizing a state of the art WRF model remains limited, giving inadequate lead time for emergency managers and forecasters.
Author: Ryan Michael Remondelli
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Meteorology
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
New England (NE) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) can produce significant damage, as well as provide increased forecast track and intensity complexity for forecasters. This is the result of the fact that these TCs recurve, often undergo extratropical transition, and are also forced via midlatitude dynamics that can act as a source of simulation track, structural, and intensity uncertainty. Consequently, not only do forecasters still struggle with forecasting NE TCs in real-time, but the region has had few such cases to quantify our ability to predict these storms in an age when they can now be explicitly resolved by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). The track predictability of historical landfalling NE TCs was explored in this study through hindcasts of all landfalling NE TCs from 1900-2011. Utilizing version 4.1.1 of the Weather Forecast and Research Model Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with two outer fixed domains (27 km, 9km), as well as a vortex-following inner domain (3 km), 18 cases were examined beginning 7 days prior landfall. As a result of utilizing relatively coarse ERA-20C analysis as boundary and initial conditions, WRF's vortex removal and insertion scheme was employed to provide more plausible initial conditions for the hindcasts that can be provided by ERA-20C alone. The resulting total-track, cross-track, and along-track errors were calculated and then compared to various recent model track forecast errors as well as the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) official track forecast errors. The evolution of the synoptic-scale patterns leading up to the time of landfall for these 18 TCs was then investigated. The distance of the simulated TCs to their surrounding troughs and ridges was also investigated. An objective climatology of the nearby trough, ridge, and jet axis locations was determined and analyzed. This analysis found that the average predictability of the historical NE TCs was low compared to a recent NHC climatology of forecast track errors. Lead times for when landfall projections occurred on long track Main Development Region storms were between 2 and 3 days before landfall. These results argue that the predictability of NE TCs utilizing a state of the art WRF model remains limited, giving inadequate lead time for emergency managers and forecasters.
Author: National Hurricane National Hurricane Center
Publisher: CreateSpace
ISBN: 9781505219890
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 102
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Book Description
The United States Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastlines have repeatedly been modified and reshaped by hurricane storm tides over the years. Since the arrival of immigrants from Europe, the coastline has steadily been developed with the addition of many homes and other buildings and an ever increasing coastal population. The consequences of this increase are visible, with each passing year, as hurricanes make landfall at different locations. However, for a specific location along the coast the frequency of an intense hurricane impact is low. Decades may pass between intense storms and in some locations such as New England; there may be hundreds of years between storms. Having an accurate historical data base on the most intense hurricanes is one of the main goals of hurricane research. One of the problems until the advent of reconnaissance flights into hurricanes in the 1940's was determining an intensity at landfall. Early sixteen and seventeen hundred eye-witness accounts of destruction from wind forces tell us little about the intensity. When wind and pressure measuring sensors began appearing in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries they rarely measured near the core of a hurricane where the maximum winds occur. Even when they were in the right place to measure the strongest winds, the device or its support mechanism failed. This problem still plagues us today. Some historical hurricanes had sea-level pressure readings taken as the center passed over and are excellent measures of the intensity. However, almost all of the historical accounts make reference to elevated water levels. Since these water levels are generated by the wind and pressure forces in the hurricane it is yet another measure of intensity. So if one can use a combined storm surge and astronomical tide model and reproduce the observed high water levels then one can deduce the intensity; both sea-level pressure in the eye as well as the maximum wind speed. This will be done for several of the early hurricanes, specifically the Great Colonial hurricane of 1635 and the Great September Gale of 1815. Two other intense hurricanes that impacted New England will also be analyzed: the 1938 hurricane and hurricane Carol in 1954. Seven additional hurricanes and one tropical storm will also be included and each will have its own section in this book. The purpose of this book is to investigate the storm tides reported in each hurricane as well as the intensity at landfall. The hope is that this information will aid emergency management agencies at the federal, state and local level along with individuals residing along the coast to make proper life and property saving decisions when similar hurricanes threaten the region in the future.
Author: Shih-Chun Hsiao
Publisher: MDPI
ISBN: 3036504966
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 148
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Book Description
In this Special Issue, seven high-quality papers covering the application and development of many high-end techniques for studies on storm tides, surges, and waves have been published, for instance, the employment of an artificial neural network for predicting coastal freak waves [1]; a reproduction of super typhoon-created extreme waves [2]; a numerical analysis of nonlinear interactions for storm waves, tides, and currents [3]; wave simulation for an island using a circulation–wave coupled model [4]; an analysis of typhoon-induced waves along typhoon tracks in the western North Pacific Ocean [5]; an understanding of how a storm surge prevents or severely restricts aeolian supply [6]; and an investigation of coastal settlements and an assessment of their vulnerability [7].
Author: Christopher M. L. Dorman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cyclones
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
Author: Source Wikipedia
Publisher: Booksllc.Net
ISBN: 9781230803555
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. Pages: 47. Chapters: 1938 New England hurricane, Effects of Hurricane Floyd in New England, Effects of Hurricane Noel in the United States, Hurricane Bill (2009), Hurricane Cindy (1959), Hurricane Earl (2010), Hurricane Esther (1961), Hurricane Irene. Excerpt: Hurricane Irene was a large and destructive tropical cyclone, which affected much of the Caribbean and East Coast of the United States during late August 2011. Irene is currently ranked as the seventh costliest hurricane in United States history. The ninth named storm, first hurricane, and first major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, Irene originated from a well-defined Atlantic tropical wave that began showing signs of organization east of the Lesser Antilles. Due to development of atmospheric convection and a closed center of circulation, the system was designated as Tropical Storm Irene on August 20, 2011. After intensifying, Irene made landfall in St. Croix as a strong tropical storm later that day. Early on August 21, the storm made a second landfall in Puerto Rico. While crossing the island, Irene strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane. The storm paralleled offshore of Hispaniola, continued to slowly intensify in the process. Shortly before making four landfalls in the Bahamas, Irene peaked as a 120 mph (195 km/h) Category 3 hurricane. Thereafter, the storm slowly leveled-off in intensity as it struck the Bahamas and then curved northward after passing east of Grand Bahama. Continuing to weaken, Irene was downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina on August 27, becoming the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Ike in 2008. Early on the following day, the storm re-emerged into the Atlantic from southeastern Virginia. Although Irene remained a hurricane over land, it...
Author: Eric P. Fisher
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 149304351X
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 241
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Book Description
The New England landscape has long been battered by some of the most intense weather in the United States. The region breeds one of the highest concentrations of meteorologists in the country for a reason. One can experience just about anything except a dust storm. Snowstorms, floods, droughts, heat waves, arctic blasts, hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, and other atmospheric oddities come and go with the changing seasons. Rare is the boring year of weather. Knowing the past is a critical part of understanding and forecasting the weather. Meteorologist Eric Fisher takes an in depth look at some of the most intense weather events in New England’s history. The stories in this book not only describe the loss and the damage caused by the storms, but also how nearly all of them in left such an impression that they immediately led to progress where new warnings systems were implemented, government agencies formed, and technology accelerated in response to the devastation these events left behind.
Author: Ping Wang
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9811275149
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 2986
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Book Description
This Proceedings contains about 270 papers on a wide range of research topics on coastal sediment processes, including nearshore sediment transport and modeling, beach processes, shore protection and coastal managements, and coastal resilience building.The unique book provides a comprehensive documentation of cutting-edge research on coastal sediment process and morphodynamics from eminent researchers worldwide. Readers can learn the most current knowledge on numerous topics concerning coastal sediment processes and shore protection.
Author: David Longshore
Publisher: Infobase Publishing
ISBN: 1438118791
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 481
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Book Description
Presents a detailed encyclopedia of named hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones, descriptions of storm activity, definitions of meteorological terms, and more.
Author: Martin Baumann
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783844009873
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Joseph P. Soares
Publisher: Arcadia Library Editions
ISBN: 9781531636944
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 130
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Book Description
The Hurricane of 1938 was one of the most devastating storms to strike New England's Atlantic coast. It forever changed the landscapes of cities and towns in its path. Throughout the hurricane, the Coast Guard worked tirelessly to provide aid to countless displaced residents. Entire communities were leveled by the hurricane's powerful winds and waves. After the storm subsided and the destruction was evident, the enormous task of rebuilding began. The historic images in The 1938 Hurricane along New England's Coast document the hurricane's destruction and the ways in which victims who were uprooted by the storm united to rebuild their communities.
