Short-range Cloud Amount Forecasting with Model Output Statistics PDF Download
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Author: Maureen E. Cianciolo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cloud forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 154
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Book Description
Author: Maureen E. Cianciolo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cloud forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 154
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Book Description
Author: Maureen E. Cianciolo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cloud forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: H. Stuart Muench
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cloud forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
This report describes the development and testing of an objective technique to forecast cloudiness and precipitation through extrapolation of satellite imagery. By utilizing on objectively determined cloud-motion vector, the technique makes local forecasts of satellite parameters (brightness and IR temperature), with high temporal resolution, using simple linear extrapolation. Algorithms are then used to convert the satellite parameters to total cloud cover, probability of 1-hour precipitation, and presence of low, middle, and high clouds. The test program computed motion vectors and made forecasts out to 7 hours, in half-hour steps, at 30 locations. The program was tested on 12 spring and fall cases, using half-hourly GOES imagery. For periods beyond 2 hours, forecasts of cloud cover and precipitation were markedly better than persistence, which deficiencies in specification hindered short-period performance. Forecasts of cloud layers were worse than persistence due to inadequate specification algorithms. The net results were quite encouraging, and further refinements and developments are planned.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Numerical weather forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 156
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics
Languages : en
Pages : 1028
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Book Description
Lists citations with abstracts for aerospace related reports obtained from world wide sources and announces documents that have recently been entered into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database.
Author: H. Stuart Muench
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric temperature
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Skill-scores, relative to climatology, for some parameters such as ceiling/visibility and precipitation are much lower than others, such as minimum temperature and pressure gradients. Also, the skill-scores have been improving appreciably faster for forecasts of 36 h (and more) than for forecasts of 24 h (and less). At the shortest ranges, less than 12 h, skill-scores relative to persistence are rather low, with values of 0.0 to 0.5 as typical. Power spectra for wind, temperature, dew point, rainfall rate, cloud reflectivity, and extinction coefficient (inversely related to visibility) were computed for periods of 10 min to 20 days, using fall season data from northeast United States. Analyses of these spectra indicate some of the problems in forecasting. Wind, temperature, and dew point spectra all had considerably more power at periods longer than 24 h than did rainfall rate, cloud reflectivity, and extinction coefficient, which relates to differences in forecast skill-scores. The greatest contribution to change for 2- to 8-h forecasts comes from disturbances with periods of about 8 to 32 h. Disturbances with periods shorter than about 24 h are purposedly filtered from current operational numerical models, in order to improve performance over longer ranges. The disturbances filtered out may be relatively unimportant to wind and temperature forecasts but quiet important for cloud and precipitation forecasts. Disturbances with periods less than about 2 h cannot be adequately resolved temporally or spatially using current weather data, yet these disturbances have sufficient amplitude to contribute noise in the analyses of longer period disturbances.
Author: Donald L. Reinke
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cloud forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 100
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Book Description
The technique of using digital satellite data to monitor the accuracy of model output derived cloud fields is examined to determine its feasibility and practicability. Cloud fields are produced from ceiling and cloud amount forecasts based on Model Output Statistic equations. Their cloud fields are displayed on a coordinate system that is compatible with a corresponding display of digitized GOES satellite data. The model output cloud fields are displayed over a 12-hour forecast period to depict what the satellite cloud field should look like at some future time. The technique was found to be both feasible and easily adapted for use on an interactive display system. Simultaneous display of the forecast and observed cloud fields appear to be a useful tool to aid in short range forecasting decisions and for monitoring the existing forecast. (Author).
Author: United States. National Weather Service
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Meteorological instruments
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Author: Ismail Gultepe
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3764384190
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 307
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Book Description
This topical volume of the Journal of Pure and Applied Geophysics utilizes new information not previously accessible for fog related research. It focuses on surface and remote sensing observations of fog, various numerical model applications using new parameterizations, fog climatology, and new statistical methods. The results presented in this special issue come from research efforts in North America and Europe.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Environmental geology
Languages : en
Pages : 166
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Book Description
