Regional House Price Segmentation and Convergence in the US PDF Download
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Author: William Miles
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This paper investigates the extent of regional integration (or, conversely, segmentation) in US home values. In contrast to some previous studies, we examine the degree of integration in the US with a data set which runs into 2012 and thus captures the latest period of bubble and bust, and employing a recently developed set of tools which yield estimates which are 1) time-varying, and 2) account for differences not just in correlation but also in amplitude between different housing markets. Our results indicate that contrary to some previous findings, overall integration in the US was falling, not rising over the early years of the bubble (2001-05). This lends some credence to the "lots of local bubbles" conjecture of Greenspan that the early stages of the bubble reflected froth in some individual markets, rather than a large underlying national bubble.
Author: William Miles
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This paper investigates the extent of regional integration (or, conversely, segmentation) in US home values. In contrast to some previous studies, we examine the degree of integration in the US with a data set which runs into 2012 and thus captures the latest period of bubble and bust, and employing a recently developed set of tools which yield estimates which are 1) time-varying, and 2) account for differences not just in correlation but also in amplitude between different housing markets. Our results indicate that contrary to some previous findings, overall integration in the US was falling, not rising over the early years of the bubble (2001-05). This lends some credence to the "lots of local bubbles" conjecture of Greenspan that the early stages of the bubble reflected froth in some individual markets, rather than a large underlying national bubble.
Author: William Miles
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
If house prices are convergent at the national level, monetary policy is easier to implement and labor has an easier time achieving mobility across regions. There have accordingly been a number of studies on home price convergence. Some of these previous papers have methodological problems. In this paper we examine home price convergence across the different regions of the US using Pesaran's pairwise approach. This method obviates some of the methodological issues which have plagued previous studies. We also test with a method that allows for structural breaks in the relationships between regional markets. We find, first, that overall the US housing market is not convergent across regions. We find some evidence that the high-priced regions of New England and the Pacific exhibit convergence. Analysis of structural change reveals that some of the increase in co-movement between these expensive markets, and the decrease in co-movement between these and other markets accelerated in the early-to-mid 1980s. Other papers on income convergence have shown the 1980s to be a time when convergence in output in the US began to slow. Moreover, the early 1980s were a period of major change in US housing finance, as securitization made credit available from new sources, rather than just depository institutions. This greater credit, including from global sources, appears to have played a role in creating divergent prices in regions which likely have differing elasticities of housing supply.
Author: Geoffrey Meen
Publisher: Policy Press
ISBN: 1529211891
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
For many younger and lower-income people, housing affordability continues to worsen. Based on the academic research of two distinguished housing economists – and stimulated by working with governments across the world - this wide-ranging book sets out clear theoretical and empirical frameworks to tackle one of today’s most important socio-economic issues. Housing unaffordability arises from complex forces and a prerequisite to effective policy is understanding the causes of rising house prices and rents and the interactions between housing, housing finance and the macroeconomy. The authors challenge many of the conventional wisdoms in housing policy and offer innovative recommendations to improve affordability.
Author: Michael K. Fung
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1839099364
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 104
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Book Description
Serving up fresh insights on Hong Kong's economic growth, this book investigates issues such as housing, immigration, monetary and financial systems, the business environment, and international trade and finance to provide a coherent and comprehensive overview of Hong Kong’s position in the global economy.
Author: Yarui Li
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The housing market plays a significant role in shaping the economic and social well-being of U.S. households. It helps spur U.S. economic growth when house prices rise, and drags the economic growth when house prices drop. In this dissertation, an analysis is conducted to project the direction of the U.S. housing market and to discover how it interacts with economic fundamentals. New pieces of information are found, which are deemed to facilitate decision making for both policy makers and investors. In the first part of the dissertation, the groupings of U.S. housing markets are studied using cluster and discriminant analysis. Three clusters are found, which are located in the central, the east coast, and the west coast of US. There are no price signals transmitted among these housing market clusters, nor within each cluster. Thus, the communication of information in the housing market is through the process of utility convergence of marginal residents, and no price convergence across regions is found. Next, the impact of credit constraint on the house prices is examined with the stochastic components of the price series being considered. Both a simulation technique and a DAG approach are employed. The resulting causal pattern shows that credit constraints affect the house prices directly and positively. Moreover, credit constraints work as an intermediary, passing the influence of the house investor, household income, and user cost onto house prices, which suggests that the credit relaxation policy should be carried out with caution when house inventory and household income send inconsistent signals. Last, the model selection for house price analysis is discussed from the perspective of large-scale models -- dynamic factor (DFM) model and large-scale Bayesian VAR (LBVAR) model. The LBVAR models are found to have superior performance compared to the DFM model throughout the prediction period. Also, it is found that the combined forecasts do not necessarily outperform individual forecasts. Even though independent information from different individual models improves the forecast accuracy, the benefit gained from marginal information is offset by the larger error brought by such combination. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/151894
Author: Michael Flor
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
This paper is mainly concerned with the analysis of regional house price cycles. Based on a newly available data set consisting of the 40 largest U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), we introduce a wavelet transform based metric to study the housing cycle synchronization across MSAs. We derive several conclusions: (i) We show that regional housing cycle dissimilarities are significantly and strongly connected to geography. (ii) We show that U.S. regional housing cycles are considerably shorter compared to business cycles. (iii) By employing statistical methods, we also show that regional housing prices significantly converge after the bursting of the bubble only at higher business cycle frequencies, whereas for lower business cycle frequencies this is not the case. This is a notable result, because it directly implies that housing cycles behavior is different even at the business cycle.
Author: Robert C. Ellickson
Publisher: Aspen Publishing
ISBN: 1543820786
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 922
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Book Description
Land Use Controls: Cases and Materials emphasizes an interdisciplinary approach that weaves historical, social, and economic causes and effects of legal doctrine. The casebook also brings out the functional relationships between formally unrelated routes of law—statutes, ordinances, constitutional doctrines, and common law—by focusing on their practical deployment, developers, neighbors, planners, politicians, and their empirical effects on outcomes like neighborhood quality, housing supply, racial segregation, and tax burdens. A thematic framework illuminates the connections among multiple topics under land law and gives attention to the factual and political context of the cases and aftermath of decisions. Dynamic pedagogy features original introductory text, cases, notes, excerpts from law review articles, and visual aids (maps, charts, graphs) throughout. New to the Fifth Edition: A focus on affordability and the new conflicts over urban zoning A fully updated treatment of local administrative law Recent constitutional rulings, including up-to-date Supreme Court decisions on exactions and regulatory takings Thoroughly updated notes, with recent cases, law review literature, and empirical studies Professors and students will benefit from: Distinguished authorship by respected scholars and professors with a range of expertise An interdisciplinary approach combining historical, social, political, and economic perspectives and offering dynamic opportunities for analysis along with broad legal coverage Concise but comprehensive treatment of the legal issues in private and public regulation of land development, including environmental justice, building codes and subdivision regulations, and the federal role in urban development A thematic framework illuminating connections among multiple discrete topics under land law and the factual and political context of cases and aftermath of decisions Excellent coverage and dynamic pedagogy
Author: Juan R. Cuadrado-Roura
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3662047888
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 366
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Book Description
The introduction of the single currency in the European economic space constitutes without doubt the most visible step towards monetary and economic integration in the EU. Those who boosted the birth of the Common Market in 1957 dreamt that this would one day come about as a logical consequence of the integration process. However, things have gone much more slowly than possibly imagined, although if taken in an adequate historic perspective, it is undeniable that the agreements that have led to European Monetary Union signify a really formidable jump in the process of political and economic integration in Europe. This is something many doubted would ever happen, but which is already a reality, although still in need of a period of consolidation. The most general economic consequences of the EMU have already been analysed in considerable depth. Proof of this is the literature already available. In general, there is coincidence in affirming that the balance of the results expected is clearly positive. Firstly, as a result of the anticipated gains in efficiency, a consequence of reduction of transaction costs associated to the previous existence of different currencies and of the elimination of exchange rate uncertainties.
Author: James E. Faulds
Publisher: Geological Society of America
ISBN: 081372323X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 269
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Book Description
This volume focuses on the geometry, kinematic development, and origin of regional segmentation structures within the basin and range province of Western North America. Contributions range from analysis of individiual structures to broad regional syntheses, including a map of basin and range structures and tilt domains. Several papers discuss the implications of regional segmentation structures in assessing seismic hazards, hydrocarbon and mineral resources, and ground-water supplies.
Author: Piyush Tiwari
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118836626
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 288
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Book Description
The financial deregulation of the last quarter century has meantlarge flows of funds around the world seeking the highestrisk-adjusted return for investors. Real estate is now establishedas an important asset class and advances in information technologyprovide the necessary tools to complement global developments inreal estate finance and investment. A variety of investment vehicles have emerged, andReal EstateFinance in the New Economy examines these along withfinancing and risk in the context of globalization, deregulationand an increasingly integrated international world economy byexploring questions like: How have real estate financial structures evolved as economiesgrow and become internationalised? What role do economic change and financial systems play in thedevelopment of real estate investment? Are the risks associated with the ‘new economy’really new? What is the future direction for real estate financing? The authors develop an economic framework for discussions onindividual financial products to examine how real estate financialstructures change with economic growth and internationalisation andalso to show how developments in real estate finance impacteconomic growth.
