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Author: Rabah Arezki
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464814082
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 55
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Book Description
World Bank economists expect GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to continue at a modest pace of 1.5 percent in 2019, slightly down from 1.6 percent in 2018. The declme reflects a contraction in one large economy, which more than offsets growth in other countries. In the medium term, the World Bank expects real GDP in the MENA to grow at 3.4 percent and 2.7 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The expected upswing is partially driven by ongoing policy reforms, as well as reconstruction efforts in some countries. However, MENA's modest recovery will be insufficient to change its historically low growth in per capita GDP. External factors are unlikely to pull the region out of its low-growth equilibrium. In addition, many countries in the region have persistent current account deficits. A recent deterioration in external balances across MENA constrained the region's ability to finance these deficits. Although the region has a low risk of experiencing sudden reversals in capital inflows in the short run, structural reforms capable of raising aggregate labor productivity are urgently needed to gradually reduce external imbalances. The report concludes by providing examples of reforms in fiscal policies, trade-related policies, social protection and labor markets, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in network industries.
Author: Rabah Arezki
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464814082
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 55
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Book Description
World Bank economists expect GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to continue at a modest pace of 1.5 percent in 2019, slightly down from 1.6 percent in 2018. The declme reflects a contraction in one large economy, which more than offsets growth in other countries. In the medium term, the World Bank expects real GDP in the MENA to grow at 3.4 percent and 2.7 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The expected upswing is partially driven by ongoing policy reforms, as well as reconstruction efforts in some countries. However, MENA's modest recovery will be insufficient to change its historically low growth in per capita GDP. External factors are unlikely to pull the region out of its low-growth equilibrium. In addition, many countries in the region have persistent current account deficits. A recent deterioration in external balances across MENA constrained the region's ability to finance these deficits. Although the region has a low risk of experiencing sudden reversals in capital inflows in the short run, structural reforms capable of raising aggregate labor productivity are urgently needed to gradually reduce external imbalances. The report concludes by providing examples of reforms in fiscal policies, trade-related policies, social protection and labor markets, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in network industries.
Author: Mr.Romain A Duval
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513570749
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
We explore the impact of major labor and product market reforms on current account dynamics using a new “narrative” database of major changes in employment protection for regular workers and product market regulation for non-manufacturing industries covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. Our main finding is that product market deregulation is associated with a weakening of the current account, while labor market deregulation is associated with an improvement. These effects are transitory and driven by both saving and investment responses. Labor and product market reforms both have a more positive impact on the current account balance when implemented under weak macroeconomic conditions. Our results are broadly consistent with predictions from recent DSGE models with endogenous producer entry and labor market frictions.
Author: Rabah Arezki
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Africa, North
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
World Bank economists expect GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to continue at a modest pace of 1.5 percent in 2019, slightly down from 1.6 percent in 2018. The decline reflects a contraction in one large economy, which more than offsets growth in other countries. In the medium term, the World Bank expects real GDP in the MENA to grow at 3.4 percent and 2.7 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The expected upswing is partially driven by ongoing policy reforms, as well as reconstruction efforts in some countries. However, MENA's modest recovery will be insufficient to change its historically low growth in per capita GDP. External factors are unlikely to pull the region out of its low-growth equilibrium. In addition, many countries in the region have persistent current account deficits. A recent deterioration in external balances across MENA constrained the region's ability to finance these deficits. Although the region has a low risk of experiencing sudden reversals in capital inflows in the short run, structural reforms capable of raising aggregate labor productivity are urgently needed to gradually reduce external imbalances. The report concludes by providing examples of reforms in fiscal policies, trade-related policies, social protection and labor markets, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in network industries.
Author: Mike Kennedy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
Author: Mike Kennedy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
It has been argued that one solution to global current account imbalances is for countries with current account surpluses to undertake structural reforms. This would raise their potential growth, which is assumed to put downward pressure on the current account position. This paper takes a closer look at how such structural reforms in labour markets, product markets, and financial markets could be expected to affect current accounts. It also tests empirically, using pooled time-series techniques (that control for the influence of relative cyclical positions, government fiscal balances and the real exchange rate), whether or not reforms in these areas would have any significant relationship with current accounts. The overall finding is that indicators of structural reforms do have a significant relationship with the current account but the contribution of these variables to explain current account positions is quite limited ...
Author: Mats Lundahl
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134231253
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 361
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Book Description
Economists have moved in recent years beyond analyzing the manner in which the macroeconomies of different countries function and prescribing appropriate policies for dealing with domestic and external imbalances. Increasingly, they have sought to understand the complex interaction between political and economic phenomena. This book considers issues of economic reform in a broad range of settings: * developed countries * transition countries * developing countries Using country specific cases such as Uzbekistan, Burma and Haiti, it focuses on those territories which have encountered problems reforming, allowing the reader to gain an accurate understanding of the factors that inhibit the success of economic reform, the different context in which economic reform is attempted, and the different challenges that individual countries face. An international team of contributors including Bo Södersten, Deepak Lal and Ron Findlay have been brought together to analyze these topical issues, making this an informative and thought-provoking book, of interest to those involved in the field of development studies.
Author: Ángel Gavilán
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Carlo A Sdralevich
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498350437
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 130
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Book Description
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries price subsidies are common, especially on food and fuels. However, these are neither well targeted nor cost effective as a social protection tool, often benefiting mainly the better off instead of the poor and vulnerable. This paper explores the challenges of replacing generalized price subsidies with more equitable social safety net instruments, including the short-term inflationary effects, and describes the features of successful subsidy reforms.
Author: Mr.Thierry Tressel
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 149837381X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
Imbalances within the euro area have been a defining feature of the crisis. This paper provides a critical analysis of the ongoing rebalancing of euro area “deficit economies” (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) that accumulated large current account deficits and external liability positions in the run-up to the crisis. It shows that relative price adjustments have been proceeding gradually. Real effective exchange rates have depreciated by 10-25 percent, driven largely by reductions in unit labor costs due to labor shedding. While exports have typically rebounded, subdued demand accounts for much of the reduction in current account deficits. Hence, the current account balance of the euro area as a whole has shifted into surplus. Internal rebalancing has come with subdued activity—notably very high unemployment in the deficit economies—and made continued adjustment more difficult. To advance rebalancing further, the paper emphasizes the need for: (1) macroeconomic policies that support demand and bring inflation in line with the ECB’s medium-term price stability objective; (2) continued EMU reforms (banking union) to ensure proper financial intermediation; and (3) structural reforms in product and labor markets to improve productivity and support the reallocation of resources to tradable sectors.
Author: Mr.Hamid R Davoodi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781589062290
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.
