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Author: Thomas Fingar
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 080477594X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 192
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Book Description
This book describes what Intelligence Community (IC) analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. It is written by a 25-year intelligence professional.
Author: Thomas Fingar
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 080477594X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 192
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Book Description
This book describes what Intelligence Community (IC) analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. It is written by a 25-year intelligence professional.
Author: Michael T. Todinov
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000076407
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 208
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Book Description
This book covers the application of algebraic inequalities for reliability improvement and for uncertainty and risk reduction. It equips readers with powerful domain-independent methods for reducing risk based on algebraic inequalities and demonstrates the significant benefits derived from the application for risk and uncertainty reduction. Algebraic inequalities: • Provide a powerful reliability improvement, risk and uncertainty reduction method that transcends engineering and can be applied in various domains of human activity • Present an effective tool for dealing with deep uncertainty related to key reliability-critical parameters of systems and processes • Permit meaningful interpretations which link abstract inequalities with the real world • Offer a tool for determining tight bounds for the variation of risk-critical parameters and complying the design with these bounds to avoid failure • Allow optimising designs and processes by minimising the deviation of critical output parameters from their specified values and maximising their performance This book is primarily for engineering professionals and academic researchers in virtually all existing engineering disciplines.
Author: Eddie Cade
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135952213
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 204
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Book Description
Banking and financial services are some of the fastest-growing industries in the world's developed countries. As growth is spurred on by huge demand for new and improved services, bankers face the daunting and difficult challenges of reducing risks and uncertainty at a time of unprecedented innovation and prosperity. Managing Banking Risks fills a gap in banking literature by providing a professional and sophisticated risk planner--for bank directors, executives, and managers at every operational level. This important work covers the full range of banking risks that operation managers and executives need to understand--from liquidity risk to price risk to operating risk.
Author: Frank H. Knight
Publisher: Courier Corporation
ISBN: 0486147932
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 450
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Book Description
DIVThis enduring economics text provided the theoretical basis of the entrepreneurial American economy during the post-industrial era. A revolutionary work, it taught the world how to systematically distinguish between risk and uncertainty. /div
Author: Douglas W. Hubbard
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 0470625678
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 320
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Book Description
Now updated with new research and even more intuitive explanations, a demystifying explanation of how managers can inform themselves to make less risky, more profitable business decisions This insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measure those things in your own business that, until now, you may have considered "immeasurable," including customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI. Adds even more intuitive explanations of powerful measurement methods and shows how they can be applied to areas such as risk management and customer satisfaction Continues to boldly assert that any perception of "immeasurability" is based on certain popular misconceptions about measurement and measurement methods Shows the common reasoning for calling something immeasurable, and sets out to correct those ideas Offers practical methods for measuring a variety of "intangibles" Adds recent research, especially in regards to methods that seem like measurement, but are in fact a kind of "placebo effect" for management – and explains how to tell effective methods from management mythology Written by recognized expert Douglas Hubbard-creator of Applied Information Economics-How to Measure Anything, Second Edition illustrates how the author has used his approach across various industries and how any problem, no matter how difficult, ill defined, or uncertain can lend itself to measurement using proven methods.
Author: Doris Brothers
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1135469024
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 239
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Book Description
Since trauma is a thoroughly relational phenomenon, it is highly unpredictable, and cannot be made to fit within the scientific framework Freud so admired. In Toward a Psychology of Uncertainty: Trauma-Centered Psychoanalysis, Doris Brothers urges a return to a trauma-centered psychoanalysis. Making use of relational systems theory, she shows that experiences of uncertainty are continually transformed by the regulatory processes of everyday life such as feeling, knowing, forming categories, making decisions, using language, creating narratives, sensing time, remembering, forgetting, and fantasizing. Insofar as trauma destroys the certainties that organize psychological life, it plunges our relational systems into chaos and sets the stage for the emergence of rigid, life-constricting relational patterns. These trauma-generated patterns, which often involve denial of sameness and difference, the creation of complexity-reducing dualities, and the transformation of certainty into certitude, figure prominently in virtually all of the complaints for which patients seek analytic treatment. Analysts, she claims, are no more strangers to trauma than are their patients. Using in-depth clinical illustrations, Dr. Brothers demonstrates how a mutual desire to heal and to be healed from trauma draws patients and analysts into their analytic relationships. She recommends the reconceptualization of what has heretofore been considered transference and countertransference in terms of the transformation of experienced uncertainty. In her view the increased ability of both analytic partners to live with uncertainty is the mark of a successful treatment. Dr. Brothers’ perspective sheds fresh light on a variety of topics of great general interest to analysts as well as many of their patients, such as gender, the acceptance of death, faith, cult-like training programs, and burnout. Her discussions of these topics are enlivened by references to contemporary cinema and theatre.
Author: Ralph Hertwig
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262353148
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 489
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Book Description
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
Author: George J. Klir
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471755567
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 499
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Book Description
Deal with information and uncertainty properly and efficientlyusing tools emerging from generalized information theory Uncertainty and Information: Foundations of Generalized InformationTheory contains comprehensive and up-to-date coverage of resultsthat have emerged from a research program begun by the author inthe early 1990s under the name "generalized information theory"(GIT). This ongoing research program aims to develop a formalmathematical treatment of the interrelated concepts of uncertaintyand information in all their varieties. In GIT, as in classicalinformation theory, uncertainty (predictive, retrodictive,diagnostic, prescriptive, and the like) is viewed as amanifestation of information deficiency, while information isviewed as anything capable of reducing the uncertainty. A broadconceptual framework for GIT is obtained by expanding theformalized language of classical set theory to include moreexpressive formalized languages based on fuzzy sets of varioustypes, and by expanding classical theory of additive measures toinclude more expressive non-additive measures of varioustypes. This landmark book examines each of several theories for dealingwith particular types of uncertainty at the following fourlevels: * Mathematical formalization of the conceived type ofuncertainty * Calculus for manipulating this particular type ofuncertainty * Justifiable ways of measuring the amount of uncertainty in anysituation formalizable in the theory * Methodological aspects of the theory With extensive use of examples and illustrations to clarify complexmaterial and demonstrate practical applications, generoushistorical and bibliographical notes, end-of-chapter exercises totest readers' newfound knowledge, glossaries, and an Instructor'sManual, this is an excellent graduate-level textbook, as well as anoutstanding reference for researchers and practitioners who dealwith the various problems involving uncertainty and information. AnInstructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all theproblems in the book is available from the Wiley editorialdepartment.
Author: Michel Syrett
Publisher: The Economist
ISBN: 1610395131
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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Book Description
Managing uncertainty has become a new business imperative. Technological discontinuities, regulatory upheavals, geopolitical shocks, abrupt shifts in consumer tastes or behavior, and many other factors have emerged or intensified in recent years and together conspire to undermine even the most carefully constructed business strategies. Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Times addresses these new challenges, assessing the sources of business turbulence, how to classify uncertainty, and the different ways in which uncertainty can be embraced to allow greater innovation and growth. Drawing on examples from around the world, the book presents the most recent ideas on what it means to manage uncertainty, from practitioners, academics, and consultants. Addresses the challenges of managing uncertainty in business Presents a step-by-step guide to managing business uncertainty Draws examples from major international companies, including Intel, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Boeing, Quinetiq, Philips, China Telecom, Ford, Apple, Shell, Glaxo SmithKline and many more Written for business leaders and managers looking for new ways to ensure that their businesses continue to thrive in a world of increasing complexity, Managing Uncertainty presents new and innovative ideas about reducing risk by understanding difficult-to-predict shifts.
Author: Marcin Bukowski
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 1317340167
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 254
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Book Description
Coping with Lack of Control in a Social World offers an integrated view of cutting-edge research on the effects of control deprivation on social cognition. The book integrates multi-method research demonstrating how various types of control deprivation, related not only to experimental settings but also to real life situations of helplessness, can lead to variety of cognitive and emotional coping strategies at the social cognitive level. The comprehensive analyses in this book tackle issues such as: Cognitive, emotional and socio-behavioral reactions to threats to personal control How social factors aid in coping with a sense of lost or threatened control Relating uncontrollability to powerlessness and intergroup processes How lack of control experiences can influence basic and complex cognitive processes This book integrates various strands of research that have not yet been presented together in an innovative volume that addresses the issue of reactions to control loss in a socio-psychological context. Its focus on coping as an active way of confronting a sense of uncontrollability makes this a unique, and highly original, contribution to the field. Practicing psychologists and students of psychology will be particularly interested readers.
