Real-World Decision Making

Real-World Decision Making PDF Author: Morris Altman
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 690

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Book Description
The first and only encyclopedia to focus on the economic and financial behaviors of consumers, investors, and organizations, including an exploration of how people make good—and bad—economic decisions. Traditional economic theories speculate how and when people should spend money. But consumers don't always behave as expected and often adopt strategies that might appear unorthodox yet are, at times, more effective than the rule prescribed by conventional wisdom. This groundbreaking text examines the ways in which people make financial decisions, whether it is because they are smart but atypical in their choices ... or just irrational decision makers. A leading authority on behavioral economics, Morris Altman and more than 150 expert contributors delve into key concepts in behavioral economics, economic psychology, behavioral finance, neuroeconomics, experimental economics, and institutional economics to help inform economic models based on reality, not theory. Through 250 informative entries, the book explores various aspects of the subject including decision making, economic analysis, and public policy. In addition to introducing concepts to readers new to the subject, the book sheds light on more advanced financial topics in a manner that is objective, comprehensive, and accessible.

Real-World Decision Making

Real-World Decision Making PDF Author: Morris Altman
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 690

Get Book Here

Book Description
The first and only encyclopedia to focus on the economic and financial behaviors of consumers, investors, and organizations, including an exploration of how people make good—and bad—economic decisions. Traditional economic theories speculate how and when people should spend money. But consumers don't always behave as expected and often adopt strategies that might appear unorthodox yet are, at times, more effective than the rule prescribed by conventional wisdom. This groundbreaking text examines the ways in which people make financial decisions, whether it is because they are smart but atypical in their choices ... or just irrational decision makers. A leading authority on behavioral economics, Morris Altman and more than 150 expert contributors delve into key concepts in behavioral economics, economic psychology, behavioral finance, neuroeconomics, experimental economics, and institutional economics to help inform economic models based on reality, not theory. Through 250 informative entries, the book explores various aspects of the subject including decision making, economic analysis, and public policy. In addition to introducing concepts to readers new to the subject, the book sheds light on more advanced financial topics in a manner that is objective, comprehensive, and accessible.

Simply Rational

Simply Rational PDF Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Evolution and Cognition
ISBN: 019939007X
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 329

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Book Description
Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a heuristic revolution that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.

Real-World Decision Modeling with DMN

Real-World Decision Modeling with DMN PDF Author: James Taylor
Publisher: Jtonedm
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
Organizations make thousands of automated, operational decisions every week. How well they make these decisions drives profitability, reputation and customer satisfaction. Decision modeling helps them understand, automate and improve them

The Power of Experiments

The Power of Experiments PDF Author: Michael Luca
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262542277
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 229

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Book Description
How tech companies like Google, Airbnb, StubHub, and Facebook learn from experiments in our data-driven world—an excellent primer on experimental and behavioral economics Have you logged into Facebook recently? Searched for something on Google? Chosen a movie on Netflix? If so, you've probably been an unwitting participant in a variety of experiments—also known as randomized controlled trials—designed to test the impact of different online experiences. Once an esoteric tool for academic research, the randomized controlled trial has gone mainstream. No tech company worth its salt (or its share price) would dare make major changes to its platform without first running experiments to understand how they would influence user behavior. In this book, Michael Luca and Max Bazerman explain the importance of experiments for decision making in a data-driven world. Luca and Bazerman describe the central role experiments play in the tech sector, drawing lessons and best practices from the experiences of such companies as StubHub, Alibaba, and Uber. Successful experiments can save companies money—eBay, for example, discovered how to cut $50 million from its yearly advertising budget—or bring to light something previously ignored, as when Airbnb was forced to confront rampant discrimination by its hosts. Moving beyond tech, Luca and Bazerman consider experimenting for the social good—different ways that governments are using experiments to influence or “nudge” behavior ranging from voter apathy to school absenteeism. Experiments, they argue, are part of any leader's toolkit. With this book, readers can become part of “the experimental revolution.”

Real-world Data Mining

Real-world Data Mining PDF Author: Dursun Delen
Publisher: Pearson Education
ISBN: 0133551075
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 289

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Book Description
As business becomes increasingly complex and global, decision-makers must act more rapidly and accurately, based on the best available evidence. Modern data mining and analytics is indispensable for doing this. Real-World Data Mining demystifies current best practices, showing how to use data mining and analytics to uncover hidden patterns and correlations, and leverage these to improve all business decision-making. Drawing on extensive experience as a researcher, practitioner, and instructor, Dr. Dursun Delen delivers an optimal balance of concepts, techniques and applications. Without compromising either simplicity or clarity, Delen provides enough technical depth to help readers truly understand how data mining technologies work. Coverage includes: data mining processes, methods, and techniques; the role and management of data; tools and metrics; text and web mining; sentiment analysis; and integration with cutting-edge Big Data approaches. Throughout, Delen's conceptual coverage is complemented with application case studies (examples of both successes and failures), as well as simple, hands-on tutorials.

The Decision Model

The Decision Model PDF Author: Barbara von Halle
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1420082825
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 556

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Book Description
In the current fast-paced and constantly changing business environment, it is more important than ever for organizations to be agile, monitor business performance, and meet with increasingly stringent compliance requirements. Written by pioneering consultants and bestselling authors with track records of international success, The Decision Model: A

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty PDF Author: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030052524
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 408

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Book Description
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Ethics for the Real World

Ethics for the Real World PDF Author: Ronald Arthur Howard
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
ISBN: 1422121062
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 225

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Book Description
This work focuses on one of ethics' most insidious problems: the inability to make clear and consistent choices in everyday life. The practical tools and techniques in this book can help readers design a set of personal standards, based on sound ethical reasoning, for reducing everyday compromises.

Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World

Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World PDF Author: Morris Altman
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128131780
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 302

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Book Description
Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World is a fresh and reality-based perspective on decision-making with significant implications for analysis, self-understanding and policy. The book examines the conditions under which smart people generate outcomes that improve their place of work, their household and society. Within this work, the curious reader will find interesting open questions on many fascinating areas of current economic debate, including, the role of realistic assumptions robust model building, understanding how and when non-neoclassical behavior is best practice, why the assumption of smart decision-makers is best to understand and explain our economies and societies, and under what conditions individuals can make the best possible choices for themselves and society at large. Additional sections cover when and how efficiency is achieved, why inefficiencies can persist, when and how consumer welfare is maximized, and what benchmarks should be used to determine efficiency and rationality. - Makes the case for 'smart and rational' decision-making as a context-dependent rational process that is framed by socio-cultural environment and conditioned by institutional capacities - Explains how incorporation of the 'smart' decision-maker concept into economic thought improves our understanding of how, why and when people generate certain outcomes - Explores how economic efficiency can be achieved, individual preferences realized, and social welfare maximized through the use of 'smart and rational' approaches

Forward-Looking Decision Making

Forward-Looking Decision Making PDF Author: Robert E. Hall
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400835267
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 145

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Book Description
Individuals and families make key decisions that impact many aspects of financial stability and determine the future of the economy. These decisions involve balancing current sacrifice against future benefits. People have to decide how much to invest in health care, exercise, their diet, and insurance. They must decide how much debt to take on, and how much to save. And they make choices about jobs that determine employment and unemployment levels. Forward-Looking Decision Making is about modeling this individual or family-based decision making using an optimizing dynamic programming model. Robert Hall first reviews ideas about dynamic programs and introduces new ideas about numerical solutions and the representation of solved models as Markov processes. He surveys recent research on the parameters of preferences--the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, and the Frisch cross-elasticity. He then examines dynamic programming models applied to health spending, long-term care insurance, employment, entrepreneurial risk-taking, and consumer debt. Linking theory with data and applying them to real-world problems, Forward-Looking Decision Making uses dynamic optimization programming models to shed light on individual behaviors and their economic implications.