Quantifying the Effects of Climate Change on Pavement Performance Prediction Using AASHTOWoware Pavement ME Design PDF Download
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Author: Md Shahjalal Chowdhury
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 77
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Book Description
"Climate change is one of the most concerning global issues and has the potential to influence every aspect of human life. Like different components of society, it can impose significant adverse impacts on pavement infrastructure. Although several research efforts have focused on studying the effects of climate change on natural and built systems, its impact on pavement performance has not been studied as extensively. The primary objectives of this thesis research was to quantify the effect of temperature changes on flexible pavement response and performance prediction using the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design (PMED), and quantify the effects of Local Calibration Factors (LCFs) used by different state highway agencies in the United States on predicted pavement performance. Particular emphasis was given to LCF values used by the Idaho Transportation Department. The climatic data, as well as LCFs corresponding to several different states, were used to identify how different LCF values affect pavement performance prediction. The effects of atmospheric temperature changes on pavement temperature and Asphalt Concrete (AC) layer modulus were studied by analyzing the intermediate files generated by PMED. Finally, the impact of temperature change on AC dynamic modulus (E*) was also analyzed to link the PMED-predicted distresses with asphalt mix properties. Historical climatic data was obtained from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) database. Projected data considered to simulate the temperature changes in the future were generated by adopting two different approaches: (1) Manual alteration of historical temperature distribution data to represent scenarios with increased mean and standard deviation values; and (2) Use of temperature data projected by established Global Climate Models (GCM). All different climatic scenarios were used in PMED along with a standard pavement section, and the distresses predicted over the design life of the pavement were compared. Simulation results showed consistent increase in Total Pavement rutting and AC rutting with increasing air temperatures. The effect of temperature increase on AC thermal cracking predicted by PMED demonstrated inconsistent trends. In contrast, the projected temperature increase had no significant effect on bottom-up fatigue cracking for the chosen study locations. It was found that the impact of changed air temperatures can be different for pavement sections constructed in different geographic locations. Moreover, the analysis confirmed that the Local Calibration Factors (LCFs) established by different state highway agencies played a major role in governing the effect of future temperature increase on predicted pavement performance. Through an extensive stud."--Boise State University ScholarWorks.
Author: Md Shahjalal Chowdhury
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 77
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Book Description
"Climate change is one of the most concerning global issues and has the potential to influence every aspect of human life. Like different components of society, it can impose significant adverse impacts on pavement infrastructure. Although several research efforts have focused on studying the effects of climate change on natural and built systems, its impact on pavement performance has not been studied as extensively. The primary objectives of this thesis research was to quantify the effect of temperature changes on flexible pavement response and performance prediction using the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design (PMED), and quantify the effects of Local Calibration Factors (LCFs) used by different state highway agencies in the United States on predicted pavement performance. Particular emphasis was given to LCF values used by the Idaho Transportation Department. The climatic data, as well as LCFs corresponding to several different states, were used to identify how different LCF values affect pavement performance prediction. The effects of atmospheric temperature changes on pavement temperature and Asphalt Concrete (AC) layer modulus were studied by analyzing the intermediate files generated by PMED. Finally, the impact of temperature change on AC dynamic modulus (E*) was also analyzed to link the PMED-predicted distresses with asphalt mix properties. Historical climatic data was obtained from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) database. Projected data considered to simulate the temperature changes in the future were generated by adopting two different approaches: (1) Manual alteration of historical temperature distribution data to represent scenarios with increased mean and standard deviation values; and (2) Use of temperature data projected by established Global Climate Models (GCM). All different climatic scenarios were used in PMED along with a standard pavement section, and the distresses predicted over the design life of the pavement were compared. Simulation results showed consistent increase in Total Pavement rutting and AC rutting with increasing air temperatures. The effect of temperature increase on AC thermal cracking predicted by PMED demonstrated inconsistent trends. In contrast, the projected temperature increase had no significant effect on bottom-up fatigue cracking for the chosen study locations. It was found that the impact of changed air temperatures can be different for pavement sections constructed in different geographic locations. Moreover, the analysis confirmed that the Local Calibration Factors (LCFs) established by different state highway agencies played a major role in governing the effect of future temperature increase on predicted pavement performance. Through an extensive stud."--Boise State University ScholarWorks.
Author: Halil Ceylan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Computer software
Languages : en
Pages : 213
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Book Description
The Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) was developed under National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Project 1-37A as a novel mechanistic-empirical procedure for the analysis and design of pavements. The MEPDG was subsequently supported by AASHTO's DARWin-ME and most recently marketed as AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software as of February 2013. Although the core design process and computational engine have remained the same over the years, some enhancements to the pavement performance prediction models have been implemented along with other documented changes as the MEPDG transitioned to AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software. Preliminary studies were carried out to determine possible differences between AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design, MEPDG (version 1.1), and DARWin-ME (version 1.1) performance predictions for new jointed plain concrete pavement (JPCP), new hot mix asphalt (HMA), and HMA over JPCP systems. Differences were indeed observed between the pavement performance predictions produced by these different software versions. Further investigation was needed to verify these differences and to evaluate whether identified local calibration factors from the latest MEPDG (version 1.1) were acceptable for use with the latest version (version 2.1.24) of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design at the time this research was conducted. Therefore, the primary objective of this research was to examine AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design performance predictions using previously identified MEPDG calibration factors (through InTrans Project 11-401) and, if needed, refine the local calibration coefficients of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design pavement performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems using linear and nonlinear optimization procedures. A total of 130 representative sections across Iowa consisting of JPCP, new HMA, and HMA over JPCP sections were used. The local calibration results of AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design are presented and compared with national and locally calibrated MEPDG models.
Author: Oluremi Oyediji
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 136
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Book Description
The resilience of concrete pavement to flood impact has remained positive based on previous experimental investigations and overtime recommended as a pre-flood adaptation strategy in countries such as Australia and the United States. However, no study on concrete pavement flood impact performance has been conducted in Canada until now. Flood impact assessment under Canadian climate conditions was therefore conducted on typical concrete pavement designs common to the provinces of Ontario and Manitoba. In the Ontario study, representative arterial and collector pavement designs were modelled, and cycles of flood hazards simulated on these pavements to evaluate changes in performance under climate change scenarios using the AASHTO Pavement ME Design (PMED) program. Percentage damage was estimated by observing changes in International Roughness Index (IRI) prediction values under flood and no-flood conditions. Results indicate a slight reduction in pavement performance across road classes, and minimal increases in damage as event cycles increased. Estimated flood damage on pavement performance was more pronounced in collector (non-dowelled) pavements than arterial (dowelled) pavements. The major distress indicator which contributed to damage was faulting, being that it increased across event cycles irrespective of return periods. In the Manitoba case study, a total of 27 pavement design classes was developed based on a matrix of representative traffic levels, subgrade conditions and slab thicknesses common to the province. Projected climate-induced flood hazards under climate change scenarios were further modelled on the design classes to evaluate flood impact on concrete pavement performance. Results also indicated diminutive flood damage and loss of life in all of the concrete pavement classes. Increases in flood cycles induced no further damage or loss in pavement performance. In all of the pavement classes considered, there was no positive change or damage to faulting and fatigue cracking under flood conditions. The IRI parameter was the only parameter influenced by inundation, which could further suggest the possible build-up of permanent moisture-induced warping. The observed low flood damage ratios further reiterates the resilience and adaptive capacity of the Jointed Plain Concrete Pavement (JPCP) to withstand extreme precipitation or flood conditions. A local calibration of the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Transverse Cracking Transfer Function was successfully completed to fit observed concrete pavement performance in Ontario. As bias existed in cracking predictions using default AASHTOWare Pavement ME cracking calibration coefficients, a need for local calibration was pertinent to provide better predictions of cracking performance under Ontario conditions. This achievement is pivotal to the delivery of reliable and economical pavement design and construction projects across the province. The derived local calibration factors have been accepted and published by the Ministry of Transportation Ontario (MTO) for industry use.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780309308823
Category : Pavements
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Book Description
"TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 810: Consideration of Preservation in Pavement Design and Analysis Procedures explores the effects of preservation on pavement performance and service life and describes three different approaches for considering these effects in pavement design and analysis procedures. The report may serve as a basis for developing procedures for incorporating preservation in the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide: A Manual of Practice (MEPDG) and the AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design software. Initially, the scope of this project intended to develop procedures for incorporating pavement preservation treatments into the MEPDG design analysis process that would become part of the MEPDG Manual of Practice. However, it was determined that sufficient data were not available to support the development of such procedures. Appendices A through I are available online only." --
Author: Syed Waqar Haider
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Pavements
Languages : en
Pages : 732
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Book Description
Author: Muhammad Munum Masud
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780438267787
Category : Electronic dissertations
Languages : en
Pages : 114
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Author: American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials
Publisher: AASHTO
ISBN: 156051423X
Category : Pavements
Languages : en
Pages : 218
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Book Description
Author: Gopi Krishna Musunuru
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781088390511
Category : Electronic dissertations
Languages : en
Pages : 270
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Book Description
The mechanistic-empirical pavement design guide (AASHTOWARE Pavement-ME) incorporates mechanistic models to estimate stresses, strains, and deformations in pavement layers using site-specific climatic, material, and traffic characteristics. These structural responses are used to predict pavement performance using empirical models (i.e., transfer functions). The transfer functions need to be calibrated to improve the accuracy of the performance predictions, reflecting the unique field conditions and design practices. The existing local calibrations of the performance models were performed by using version 2.0 of the Pavement-ME software. However, AASHTO has released versions 2.2 and 2.3 of the software since the completion of the last study. In the revised versions of the software, several bugs were fixed.Consequently, some performance models were modified in the newer software versions. As a result, the concrete pavement IRI predictions and the resulting PCC slab thicknesses have been impacted. The performance predictions varied significantly from the observed structural and function distresses, and hence, the performance models were recalibrated to enhance the confidence in pavement designs. Linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models were used for calibration to account for the non-independence among the data measured on the same sections over time. Also, climate data, material properties, and design parameters were used to develop a model for predicting permanent curl for each location to address some limitations of the Pavement-ME. This model can be used at the design stage to estimate permanent curl for a given location in Michigan.Pavement-ME also requires specific types of traffic data to design new or rehabilitated pavement structures. The traffic inputs include monthly adjustment factors (MAF), hourly distribution factors (HDF), vehicle class distributions (VCD), axle groups per vehicle (AGPV), and axle load distributions for different axle configurations. During the last seven years, new traffic data were collected, which reflect the recent economic growth, additional, and downgraded WIM sites. Hence it was appropriate to re-evaluate the current traffic inputs and incorporate any changes. Weight and classification data were obtained from 41 Weigh-in-Motion (WIM) sites located throughout the State of Michigan to develop Level 1 (site-specific) traffic inputs. Cluster analyses were conducted to group sites for the development of Level 2A inputs. Classification models such as decision trees, random forests, and Naive Bayes classifier were developed to assign a new site to these clusters; however, this proved difficult. An alternative simplified method to develop Level 2B inputs by grouping sites with similar attributes was also adopted. The optimal set of attributes for developing these Level 2B inputs were identified by using an algorithm developed in this study. The effects of the developed hierarchical traffic inputs on the predicted performance of rigid and flexible pavements were investigated using the Pavement-ME. Based on the statistical and practical significance of the life differences, appropriate levels were established for each traffic input. The methodology for developing traffic inputs is intuitive and practical for future updates. Also, there is a need to identify the change in traffic patterns to update the traffic inputs so that the pavement sections would not be overdesigned or under-designed. Models were developed where the short-term counts from the PTR sites can be used as inputs to check if the new traffic patterns cause any substantial differences in design life predictions.
Author: By Qiang Li
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Pavements
Languages : en
Pages : 123
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Book Description
Pavements are designed based on historic climatic patterns, reflecting local climate and incorporating assumptions about a reasonable range of temperatures and precipitation levels. Given anticipated climate changes and the inherent uncertainty associated with such changes, a pavement could be subjected to very different climatic conditions over the design life and might be inadequate to withstand future climate forces that impose stresses beyond environmental factors currently considered in the design process. This research explores the impacts of potential climate change and its uncertainty on pavement performance and therefore pavement design. Two tools are integrated to simulate pavement conditions over a variety of scenarios. The first tool, MAGICC/SCENGEN (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change: A regional Climate Scenario Generator), provides estimates of the magnitude of potential climate change and its uncertainty. The second tool, the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) software analyzes the deterioration of pavement performance. Three important questions are addressed: (1) How does pavement performance deteriorate differently with climate change and its uncertainty? (2) What is the risk if climate change and its uncertainty are not considered in pavement design? and (3) How do pavement designers respond and incorporate this change into pavement design process? This research develops a framework to incorporate climate change effects into the mechanistic-empirical based pavement design. Three test sites in the North Eastern United States are studied and the framework is applied. It demonstrates that the framework is a robust and effective way to integrate climate change into pavement design as an adaptation strategy.
