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Author: Brennen Fagan
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429948808
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 239
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Book Description
Demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions. Examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors. Combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history. Provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual history Written in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.
Author: Brennen Fagan
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429948794
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 183
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Book Description
Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgements and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, wellquantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications. Key Features: This book demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions. It examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors. It combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history. It provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual history. It is written in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.
Author: Niall J MacKay
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780429488405
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
"Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications"--
Author: Brennen Fagan
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429948808
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 239
Get Book Here
Book Description
Demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions. Examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors. Combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history. Provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual history Written in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.
Author: Keith Grint
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198921772
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 801
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Book Description
Resistance is universal, but why does it occur, and fail or succeed? Resistance is often regarded in traditional management books as a problem to be overcome because it is seen as short-sighted or self-interested. Grint suggests, however, that resistance is not necessarily right or wrong. From resistance to the Roman Empire, to slavery, to the Nazis, to racism, to the state and capital, to patriarchy, and to imperialism, this book ranges across time and place to explain the success or failure of resistance. While many contemporary approaches focus on leadership as the explanatory variable, A Cartography of Resistance expands the approach to include management and command of resistance movements - and of their opponents. Many of the case studies explore the failures, as well as the successes, of resistance and the book suggests that even the failures reveal a fundamental truth about the human condition: just because the situation looks bleak for those suffering from oppression does not mean they surrendered meekly. Rather many seemed to adopt the same attitude that led Sisyphus to keep rolling the boulder up the hill: they were determined not to let their situation define or defeat them.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9780691027913
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 362
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Book Description
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
Author: Christopher A. Lawrence
Publisher: Casemate
ISBN: 161200279X
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 377
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Book Description
“A well researched and well analyzed study of the nature of insurgencies and guerilla warfare” (Military Review). The fighting skills and valor of the US military and its allies haven’t diminished over the past half-century—yet our wars have become more protracted and decisive results more elusive. With only two exceptions—Panama and the Gulf War under the first President Bush—our campaigns have taken on the character of endless slogs without positive results. This fascinating book takes a ground-up look at the problem to assess how our strategic objectives have become divorced from our true capability or imperatives. The book presents a unique examination of the nature of insurgencies and the three major guerrilla wars the United States has fought in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam. It is both a theoretical work and one that applies the hard experience of the past five decades to address the issues of today. As such, it also provides a timely and meaningful discussion of America’s current geopolitical position. It starts with the previously close-held casualty estimate for Iraq that The Dupuy Institute compiled in 2004 for the US Department of Defense. Going from the practical to the theoretical, it then discusses a construct for understanding insurgencies and the contexts in which they can be fought. It applies these principles to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam, assessing where the projection of US power can enhance our position and where it merely weakens it. It presents an extensive analysis of insurgencies based upon a unique database of eighty-three post-WWII cases. The book explores what is important to combat and what is not important to resist in insurgencies. It builds a body of knowledge, based upon a half-century’s worth of real-world data, with analysis, not opinion. In these pages, Christopher A. Lawrence, the President of The Dupuy Institute, provides an invaluable guide to how the US can best project its vital power while avoiding the missteps of the recent past. “Provides a unique quantitative historical analysis . . . Logically estimating the outcomes of future military operations, as the author writes, is what US citizens should expect and demand from their leaders who take this country to war.” —Military Review
Author: Albert N. Link
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317608682
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 163
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Book Description
Electric drive vehicles (EDVs) are seen on American roads in increasing numbers. Related to this market trend and critical for it to increase are improvements in battery technology. Battery Technology for Electric Vehicles examines in detail at the research support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the development of nickel-metal-hydride (NiMH) and lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries used in EDVs. With public support comes accountability of the social outcomes associated with public investments. The book overviews DOE investments in advanced battery technology, documents the adoption of these batteries in EDVs on the road, and calculates the economic benefits associated with these improved technologies. It provides a detailed global evaluation of the net social benefits associated with DOEs investments, the results of the benefit-to-cost ratio of over 3.6-to-1, and the life-cycle approach that allows adopted EDVs to remain on the road over their expected future life, thus generating economic and environmental health benefits into the future.
Author: Peter Meusburger
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9048189454
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 373
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Book Description
The revival of interest in collective cultural memories since the 1980s has been a genuinely global phenomenon. Cultural memories can be defined as the social constructions of the past that allow individuals and groups to orient themselves in time and space. The investigation of cultural memories has necessitated an interdisciplinary perspective, though geographical questions about the spaces, places, and landscapes of memory have acquired a special significance. The essays in this volume, written by leading anthropologists, geographers, historians, and psychologists, open a range of new interpretations of the formation and development of cultural memories from ancient times to the present day. The volume is divided into five interconnected sections. The first section outlines the theoretical considerations that have shaped recent debates about cultural memory. The second section provides detailed case studies of three key themes: the founding myths of the nation-state, the contestation of national collective memories during periods of civil war, and the oral traditions that move beyond national narrative. The third section examines the role of World War II as a pivotal episode in an emerging European cultural memory. The fourth section focuses on cultural memories in postcolonial contexts beyond Europe. The fifth and final section extends the study of cultural memory back into premodern tribal and nomadic societies.
Author: Hans Keman
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1788112954
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 289
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Book Description
This book analyses the role of the national state, as organiser of its territory and governor of its infrastructure, since it emerged in the 19th Century. It presents a cross-time analysis of eight emerging democratic states during the transport revolution, focussing on railway systems. The book explores how the intervention state regulated society in Europe and Australia since the Industrial Revolution. The authors conclude that these state capacities are still governing the public domain, also at the level of the EU.
Author: Jack Copeland
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0191065005
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 563
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Book Description
Alan Turing has long proved a subject of fascination, but following the centenary of his birth in 2012, the code-breaker, computer pioneer, mathematician (and much more) has become even more celebrated with much media coverage, and several meetings, conferences and books raising public awareness of Turing's life and work. This volume will bring together contributions from some of the leading experts on Alan Turing to create a comprehensive guide to Turing that will serve as a useful resource for researchers in the area as well as the increasingly interested general reader. The book will cover aspects of Turing's life and the wide range of his intellectual activities, including mathematics, code-breaking, computer science, logic, artificial intelligence and mathematical biology, as well as his subsequent influence.
