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Author: Sebastian Hauptmeier
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3790821764
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 201
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Book Description
In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.
Author: Sebastian Hauptmeier
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3790821764
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 201
Get Book Here
Book Description
In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.
Author: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commercial statistics
Languages : en
Pages : 668
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher: Government Printing Office
ISBN: 9780160881695
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513555839
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.
Author: Patrick Blagrave
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475565135
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816662
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 339
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Book Description
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Budget
Languages : en
Pages : 138
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Book Description
Author: Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484350324
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 15
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Book Description
Korea’s rapid growth has slowed in recent years, suggesting lower potential growth. This paper uses an array of techniques, including statistical filters, a multivariate model and the production function, to estimate Korea’s potential growth. The main finding is that trend growth has fallen from around 43⁄4 percent during 2000-07 to around 31⁄4 -31⁄2 percent by 2011-12. Absent reforms, it is projected to fall further to around 2 percent by 2025, primarily due to declining working-age population. However, Korea’s potential growth can be maintained at a higher level by putting in place a comprehensive structural reform agenda, including increased female and youth labor force participation, liberalization of product and labor market regulation. Staff simulations suggest that such reforms could lift potential growth by around 11⁄4 percentage point over the next decade, maintaining potential growth at around 31⁄4 percent, counteracting the effect of population aging, and enabling Korea to continue to converge to income levels of the United States.
Author:
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0195204328
Category : International organization
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Book Description
This report is the sixth in an annual series assessing development issues. It reviews recent trends in the international economy and their implications for the developing countries with a special focus on the management and institutional aspects of development. The early recovery in the world economy foreseen in last year's World Development Report did not materialize. The recession has lasted longer than expected and has set back global development more decisively than at any time since the Great Depression. The indications of an upturn are now firmer, but the international financial system remains severely strained and protectionism continues to be an ominous threat. This report reviews how alternative policies may affect the future prospects for recovery. It concludes that the present financial crisis is manageable, provided concerted efforts are made both nationally and internationally. It is essential for the industrial countries to maintain the momentum of their recovery, to promote freer trade, and to ensure growth in capital flows. Equally important, developing countries must for their part continue their efforts to adjust their economies to the new external circumstances and thereby regain the confidence of their creditors.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 926457512X
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 229
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Book Description
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries.
