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Author:
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Mortalidad
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
New procedures for projecting mortality in each country modestly change previous mortality projections.
Author:
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Mortalidad
Languages : en
Pages : 35
Get Book Here
Book Description
New procedures for projecting mortality in each country modestly change previous mortality projections.
Author: Arthur A. Campbell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Mortality
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309048397
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 285
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Book Description
This book examines issues concerning how developing countries will have to prepare for demographic and epidemiologic change. Much of the current literature focuses on the prevalence of specific diseases and their economic consequences, but a need exists to consider the consequences of the epidemiological transition: the change in mortality patterns from infectious and parasitic diseases to chronic and degenerative ones. Among the topics covered are the association between the health of children and adults, the strong orientation of many international health organizations toward infant and child health, and how the public and private sectors will need to address and confront the large-scale shifts in disease and demographic characteristics of populations in developing countries.
Author: E. Tabeau
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0792368339
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 320
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Book Description
Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Author: E. Tabeau
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 201
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Book Description
Author: Tommy Bengtsson
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030050750
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 349
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Book Description
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309217105
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 200
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Book Description
During the last 25 years, life expectancy at age 50 in the United States has been rising, but at a slower pace than in many other high-income countries, such as Japan and Australia. This difference is particularly notable given that the United States spends more on health care than any other nation. Concerned about this divergence, the National Institute on Aging asked the National Research Council to examine evidence on its possible causes. According to Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries, the nation's history of heavy smoking is a major reason why lifespans in the United States fall short of those in many other high-income nations. Evidence suggests that current obesity levels play a substantial part as well. The book reports that lack of universal access to health care in the U.S. also has increased mortality and reduced life expectancy, though this is a less significant factor for those over age 65 because of Medicare access. For the main causes of death at older ages-cancer and cardiovascular disease-available indicators do not suggest that the U.S. health care system is failing to prevent deaths that would be averted elsewhere. In fact, cancer detection and survival appear to be better in the U.S. than in most other high-income nations, and survival rates following a heart attack also are favorable. Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries identifies many gaps in research. For instance, while lung cancer deaths are a reliable marker of the damage from smoking, no clear-cut marker exists for obesity, physical inactivity, social integration, or other risks considered in this book. Moreover, evaluation of these risk factors is based on observational studies, which-unlike randomized controlled trials-are subject to many biases.
Author: Rodolfo A. Bulatao
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
Author: United Nations Publications
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789211483161
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The United Nations population estimates and projections form a comprehensive set of demographic data to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels. They are used in the calculation of many of the key development indicators commonly used by the United Nations system, including for more than one third of the indicators used to monitor progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects is the twenty-sixth edition of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, which have been prepared since 1951 by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2019 revision presents population estimates from 1950 until the present for 235 countries or areas, which have been developed through country-specific analyses of historical demographic trends. It builds on previous revisions by incorporating additional results from the 2010 and 2020 rounds of national population censuses as well as information from vital registration and recent nationally representative household sample surveys. The 2019 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and country levels. These Highlights summarise key population trends described by the estimates and projections presented in World Population Prospects 2019.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309180090
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
In sub-Saharan Africa, older people make up a relatively small fraction of the total population and are supported primarily by family and other kinship networks. They have traditionally been viewed as repositories of information and wisdom, and are critical pillars of the community but as the HIV/AIDS pandemic destroys family systems, the elderly increasingly have to deal with the loss of their own support while absorbing the additional responsibilities of caring for their orphaned grandchildren. Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa explores ways to promote U.S. research interests and to augment the sub-Saharan governments' capacity to address the many challenges posed by population aging. Five major themes are explored in the book such as the need for a basic definition of "older person," the need for national governments to invest more in basic research and the coordination of data collection across countries, and the need for improved dialogue between local researchers and policy makers. This book makes three major recommendations: 1) the development of a research agenda 2) enhancing research opportunity and implementation and 3) the translation of research findings.
