Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports PDF Download
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Languages : en
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Author: Anita Regmi
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781693696367
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Certain foreign nations have targeted U.S. food and agricultural products with retaliatory tariffs since early 2018 in response to U.S. Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and Section 301 tariffs levied on U.S. imports from China. Retaliatory tariffs have made imports of U.S. agricultural products relatively more expensive compared to similar products from competitor nations. In the short run, U.S. shipments of products to countries with retaliatory tariffs have declined, reducing overall global demand for affected U.S. agricultural products and driving down the prices of U.S. agricultural commodities. Depending on the length and depth of the tariffs and the range of products affected, some experts caution that the long-run trade impacts could inflict further harm as U.S. competitor countries have an incentive to expand their agricultural production. The total value of exports of U.S. food and agricultural products levied retaliatory tariffs in 2018 was $22 billion, down 27% from $30 billion in 2017. China accounted for about 80% of the total affected trade in both years. Despite the retaliatory tariffs, U.S. agricultural exports rose in 2018 to $140 billion from $138 billion in 2017, partly due to higher imports during the months leading up to the retaliatory tariffs and increased exports to other non-retaliating countries. With the continuation of retaliatory tariffs, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects U.S. agricultural exports to decline about 4% in 2019. While trade-aid packages may provide short-term financial assistance, some studies and critics of the President's actions caution that the long-term consequences of the retaliatory tariffs may present more challenges. Even as China has raised tariffs on U.S. imports, it has improved access to its markets for other exporting countries. Brazil, Russia and other countries are expanding their agricultural production to meet China's import demand. For example, Russia's investments during the past two decades have resulted in agricultural productivity growth ranging from 25% to 75%, with higher productivity growth along its southern region. Although still at relatively modest levels, China's total food and agricultural imports from Russia increased 61% between 2017 and 2018. The continuation of trade disputes and retaliatory tariffs may be of interest to Congress for the following reasons. Trade disputes have disrupted global markets and increased uncertainty in the farm input and output sectors. They may add to production costs, they have dampened exports, impacted farm income, and triggered additional federal assistance for the farm sector. In the short-run, there could be some transient benefits associated with various aspects of the agricultural sector. In the long-run, other countries may expand agricultural production, potentially displacing U.S. agricultural exports to become larger food and agricultural suppliers to China.
Author: Colin A. Carter
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Languages : en
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This paper analyzes the short-run trade effects of retaliatory tariffs against agriculture and food exports from the United States. The results indicate that these tariffs caused a substantial decline in U.S. agriculture and food exports and induced a reorientation of international trade patterns. We find that losses in foreign trade with retaliatory countries outweigh the gains from trade with non-retaliatory countries by more than USD 14.4 billion. Our results also indicate that non-retaliatory countries accommodated the increased demand from retaliatory countries by reorienting their trade relationships. We find that countries in South America and Europe benefited the most from these adjustments gaining more than USD 13.5 billion in additional foreign sales. The effects of retaliatory tariff increases across products vary substantially, with soybeans and meat products experiencing the most considerable redistribution effects.
Author: Colin Andre Carter
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This paper analyzes the short-run trade effects of retaliatory tariffs against agriculture and food exports from the United States. The results indicate that these tariffs caused a substantial decline in U.S. agriculture and food exports and induced a reorientation of international trade patterns. We find that losses in foreign trade with retaliatory countries outweigh the gains from trade with non-retaliatory countries by more than USD 14.4 billion. Our results also indicate that non-retaliatory countries accommodated the increased demand from retaliatory countries by reorienting their trade relationships. We find that countries in South America and Europe benefited the most from these adjustments gaining more than USD 13.5 billion in additional foreign sales. The effects of retaliatory tariff increases across products vary substantially, with soybeans and meat products experiencing the most considerable redistribution effects.
Author: Colin A. Carter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Food industry and trade
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the short-run trade effects of retaliatory tariffs against agriculture and food exports from the United States. The results indicate that these tariffs caused a substantial decline in U.S. agriculture and food exports and induced a reorientation of international trade patterns. We find that losses in foreign trade with retaliatory countries outweigh the gains from trade with non-retaliatory countries by more than USD 14.4 billion. Our results also indicate that non-retaliatory countries accommodated the increased demand from retaliatory countries by reorienting their trade relationships. We find that countries in South America and Europe benefited the most from these adjustments gaining more than USD 13.5 billion in additional foreign sales. The effects of retaliatory tariff increases across products vary substantially, with soybeans and meat products experiencing the most considerable redistribution effects.
Author: Stephen N. Morgan
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Jenny Hopkinson
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Alberto Cavallo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513518380
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy - particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China - on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to total prices paid by importers, suggesting the tariffs' incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, using product-level data from several large multi-national retailers, we demonstrate that the impact of the tariffs on retail prices is more mixed. Some affected product categories have seen sharp price increases, but the difference between affected and unaffected products is generally quite modest, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. These retailers' imports increased after the initial announcement of possible tariffs, but before their full implementation, so the intermediate passthrough of tariffs to their prices may not persist. Finally, in contrast to the case of foreign exporters facing US tariffs, we show that US exporters lowered their prices on goods subjected to foreign retaliatory tariffs compared to exports of non-targeted goods.
Author: Richard E. Baldwin
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781907142239
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 112
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The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.
Author: Douglas A. Irwin
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400888425
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 265
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A history of America's most infamous tariff The Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which raised U.S. duties on hundreds of imported goods to record levels, is America's most infamous trade law. It is often associated with—and sometimes blamed for—the onset of the Great Depression, the collapse of world trade, and the global spread of protectionism in the 1930s. Even today, the ghosts of congressmen Reed Smoot and Willis Hawley haunt anyone arguing for higher trade barriers; almost single-handedly, they made protectionism an insult rather than a compliment. In Peddling Protectionism, Douglas Irwin provides the first comprehensive history of the causes and effects of this notorious measure, explaining why it largely deserves its reputation for combining bad politics and bad economics and harming the U.S. and world economies during the Depression. In four brief, clear chapters, Irwin presents an authoritative account of the politics behind Smoot-Hawley, its economic consequences, the foreign reaction it provoked, and its aftermath and legacy. Starting as a Republican ploy to win the farm vote in the 1928 election by increasing duties on agricultural imports, the tariff quickly grew into a logrolling, pork barrel free-for-all in which duties were increased all around, regardless of the interests of consumers and exporters. After Herbert Hoover signed the bill, U.S. imports fell sharply and other countries retaliated by increasing tariffs on American goods, leading U.S. exports to shrivel as well. While Smoot-Hawley was hardly responsible for the Great Depression, Irwin argues, it contributed to a decline in world trade and provoked discrimination against U.S. exports that lasted decades. Peddling Protectionism tells a fascinating story filled with valuable lessons for trade policy today.
