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Author: Daniel Kaufmann
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Balance Of Payments Crises
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
"Markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers, who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates"--Cover.
Author: Daniel Kaufmann
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Balance Of Payments Crises
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Get Book Here
Book Description
"Markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers, who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates"--Cover.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Daniel Kaufmann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper investigates whether resident enterprise managers have an informational advantage about the countries where they work. We test this informational advantage hypothesis by using a unique dataset, the Global Competitiveness Survey. The findings suggest that local managers do have valuable information about the country where they reside. Local managers' responses improve conventional estimates of future volatility and changes in the exchange rate, which are based on economic fundamentals. These findings provide support to the theories that claim that asymmetric information is present in international financial markets and is important to understand financial crises.
Author: Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451857209
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 62
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Book Description
This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One model, and our modifications to it, provide useful forecasts, at least compared with a naive benchmark. The head-to-head comparison also sheds light on the economics of currency crises, the nature of the Asian crisis, and issues in the empirical modeling of currency crises.
Author: Juan Yepez
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455208922
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the measurement techniques. In our study, the methods are given the right fundamentals and the right models and are evaluated on how closely the estimated predictions match the objectively correct predictions. We find that all methods do reasonably well when fundamentals are explosive and all do badly when fundamentals are merely highly volatile.
Author: Pauline Kennedy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Financial crises
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
Author: Ilan Goldfajn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Devaluation of currency
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
Author: Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdés
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451902751
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchange rate misalignment into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises.
Author: Alessandro Prati
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
This paper studies how uncertainty about fundamentals contributed to currency crises from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. We find evidenceCbased on a monthly dataset of Consensus forecasts for six Asian countries in the period January 1995-May 2001Cconfirming the theoretical predictions (from both unique- and multiple-equilibria models) that: (i) speculative attacks depend not only on actual and expected fundamentals but also on the variance of speculators' expectations about them; and (ii) the sign of the effect of the variance depends on whether expected fundamentals are "good" or "bad." These results are robust to the definition of exchange rate pressure indices, the estimation sample (precrisis vs. full sample), the method chosen to avoid spurious correlations, and possible time-varying coefficients for the mean, the variance, and the threshold separating good from bad expected fundamentals.
Author: Robert P. Flood
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico and Southeast Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates. To improve our understanding of these events, researchers have undertaken new theoretical and empirical work. In this paper, we provide some perspective on this work and relate it to earlier research in the area. Then we derive the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and propose a common framework for analyzing currency crises that draws from both the early first-generation work and the more recent second-generation approach. The cross-generational framework stresses the important role of speculators and also recognizes that the government's commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. In the final section we study the crisis prediction literature and find that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.
