Short-Term Peak Demand Forecasting Using an Artificial Neural Network with Controlled Peak Demand Through Intelligent Electrical Loading PDF Download
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Author: Jason L Grant
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The power output capacity of a local electrical utility is dictated by its customers' cumulative peak-demand electrical consumption. Most electrical utilities in the United States maintain peak-power generation capacity by charging for end-use peak electrical demand; thirty to seventy percent of an electric utility's bill. To reduce peak demand, a real-time energy monitoring system was designed, developed, and implemented for a large government building. Data logging, combined with an application of artificial neural networks (ANNs), provides short-term electrical load forecasting data for controlled peak demand. The ANN model was tested against other forecasting methods including simple moving average (SMA), linear regression, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSplines) and was effective at forecasting peak building electrical demand in a large government building sixty minutes into the future. The ANN model presented here outperformed the other forecasting methods tested with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3.9% as compared to the SMA, linear regression, and MARSplines MAPEs of 7.7%, 17.3%, and 7.0% respectively. Additionally, the ANN model realized an absolute maximum error (AME) of 18.2% as compared to the SMA, linear regression, and MARSplines AMEs of 26.2%, 45.1%, and 22.5% respectively.
Author: Jason L Grant
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The power output capacity of a local electrical utility is dictated by its customers' cumulative peak-demand electrical consumption. Most electrical utilities in the United States maintain peak-power generation capacity by charging for end-use peak electrical demand; thirty to seventy percent of an electric utility's bill. To reduce peak demand, a real-time energy monitoring system was designed, developed, and implemented for a large government building. Data logging, combined with an application of artificial neural networks (ANNs), provides short-term electrical load forecasting data for controlled peak demand. The ANN model was tested against other forecasting methods including simple moving average (SMA), linear regression, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSplines) and was effective at forecasting peak building electrical demand in a large government building sixty minutes into the future. The ANN model presented here outperformed the other forecasting methods tested with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3.9% as compared to the SMA, linear regression, and MARSplines MAPEs of 7.7%, 17.3%, and 7.0% respectively. Additionally, the ANN model realized an absolute maximum error (AME) of 18.2% as compared to the SMA, linear regression, and MARSplines AMEs of 26.2%, 45.1%, and 22.5% respectively.
Author: Joe H. Chow
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387234713
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 345
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Book Description
Applied Mathematics for Restructured Electric Power Systems: Optimization, Control, and Computational Intelligence consists of chapters based on work presented at a National Science Foundation workshop organized in November 2003. The theme of the workshop was the use of applied mathematics to solve challenging power system problems. The areas included control, optimization, and computational intelligence. In addition to the introductory chapter, this book includes 12 chapters written by renowned experts in their respected fields. Each chapter follows a three-part format: (1) a description of an important power system problem or problems, (2) the current practice and/or particular research approaches, and (3) future research directions. Collectively, the technical areas discussed are voltage and oscillatory stability, power system security margins, hierarchical and decentralized control, stability monitoring, embedded optimization, neural network control with adaptive critic architecture, control tuning using genetic algorithms, and load forecasting and component prediction. This volume is intended for power systems researchers and professionals charged with solving electric and power system problems.
Author: S.A. Soliman
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0123815444
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 441
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Book Description
Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models. Step-by-step guide to model construction Construct, verify, and run short and long term models Accurately evaluate load shape and pricing Creat regional specific electrical load models
Author: Christian Behm
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Accurate forecast of electricity load are increasingly important. We present a method to forecast long-term weather-dependent hourly electricity load using artificial neural networks. The fully connected dense artificial neural networks with 5 hidden layers and 1,024 hidden nodes per layer are trained using historic data from 2006 to 2015. Input parameters comprise calendrical information, annual peak loads and weather data. The results are benchmarked against the method to forecast electric loads used in the current mid-term adequacy forecasts published by the European Network of Transmission System Operators (entso-e). For validation year 2016, our approach shows a mean absolute percentage error of 2.8%, whereas the common approach as used by entso-e shows an average error of 4.8% using peak load scaling. Further, we conduct forecasts for Germany, Sweden, Spain, and France for scenario year 2025 and assess parameter variations. Our approach can serve to increase prediction accuracy of future electricity loads.
Author: S. Smys
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9813343052
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 983
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Book Description
This book is a collection of best selected papers presented at the International Conference on Inventive Computation and Information Technologies (ICICIT 2020), organized during 24–25 September 2020. The book includes papers in the research area of information sciences and communication engineering. The book presents novel and innovative research results in theory, methodology and applications of communication engineering and information technologies.
Author: Wei-Chiang Hong
Publisher: MDPI
ISBN: 3038975826
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 445
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Book Description
This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies" that was published in Energies
Author: Management Association, Information Resources
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1668424096
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 1575
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Book Description
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) present many benefits in analyzing complex data in a proficient manner. As an effective and efficient problem-solving method, ANNs are incredibly useful in many different fields. From education to medicine and banking to engineering, artificial neural networks are a growing phenomenon as more realize the plethora of uses and benefits they provide. Due to their complexity, it is vital for researchers to understand ANN capabilities in various fields. The Research Anthology on Artificial Neural Network Applications covers critical topics related to artificial neural networks and their multitude of applications in a number of diverse areas including medicine, finance, operations research, business, social media, security, and more. Covering everything from the applications and uses of artificial neural networks to deep learning and non-linear problems, this book is ideal for computer scientists, IT specialists, data scientists, technologists, business owners, engineers, government agencies, researchers, academicians, and students, as well as anyone who is interested in learning more about how artificial neural networks can be used across a wide range of fields.
Author: Eric Lynn Taylor
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 97
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Book Description
For optimal power system operation, electrical generation must follow electrical load demand. The generation, transmission, and distribution utilities require some means to forecast the electrical load so they can utilize their electrical infrastructure efficiently, securely, and economically. The short-term load forecast (STLF) represents the electric load forecast for a time interval of a few hours to a few days. This thesis will define STLF as a 24-hour-ahead load forecast whose results will provide an hourly electric load forecast in kilowatts (kW) for the future 24 hours (a 24-hour load profile). This thesis will use the method of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to create a STLF algorithm for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). ORNL’s power system can be described as an institutional/industrial-type electrical load. The ANN is a mathematical tool that mimics the thought processes of the human brain. The ANN can be created and trained to receive historical load and future weather forecasts as input and produce a load forecast as its output. Most ANNs in the literature are used to forecast the next day 24-hour load profile for a transmission-level system with resulting load forecast errors ranging from approximately 1 % to 3 %. This research will show that an ANN can be used to forecast the smaller, more chaotic load profile of an institutional/industrial-type power system and results in a similar forecast error range. In addition, the operating bounds of the ORNL electric load will be analyzed along with the weather profiles for the site. Correlations between load and weather and load and calendar descriptors, such as day of week and month, will be used as predictor inputs to the ANN to optimize is size and accuracy.
Author: Natalia Gotman
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783659459382
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 100
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Book Description
Electric load forecasting is an important research field in electric power industry. It plays a crucial role in solving a wide range of tasks of short-term planning and operating control of electric power system operating modes. Load forecasting is carried out in different time spans. Load forecasting within a current day - operating forecasting; one-day-week-month-ahead load forecasting - short-term load forecasting; one-month-quarter-year-ahead load forecasting - long-term load forecasting. So far a great number of both conventional and non-conventional electric load forecasting methods and models have been developed. The work presents research results of electric load forecasting for electrical power systems using artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic as one of the most advanced and perspective directions of solving this task. A theoretical approach to the issues discussed is combined with the data of experimental studies implemented with application of load curves of regional electrical power systems. The book is addressed to specialists and researchers concerned with operational control modes of electric power systems.
Author: Maria Jacob
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 303028669X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 108
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Book Description
The overarching aim of this open access book is to present self-contained theory and algorithms for investigation and prediction of electric demand peaks. A cross-section of popular demand forecasting algorithms from statistics, machine learning and mathematics is presented, followed by extreme value theory techniques with examples. In order to achieve carbon targets, good forecasts of peaks are essential. For instance, shifting demand or charging battery depends on correct demand predictions in time. Majority of forecasting algorithms historically were focused on average load prediction. In order to model the peaks, methods from extreme value theory are applied. This allows us to study extremes without making any assumption on the central parts of demand distribution and to predict beyond the range of available data. While applied on individual loads, the techniques described in this book can be extended naturally to substations, or to commercial settings. Extreme value theory techniques presented can be also used across other disciplines, for example for predicting heavy rainfalls, wind speed, solar radiation and extreme weather events. The book is intended for students, academics, engineers and professionals that are interested in short term load prediction, energy data analytics, battery control, demand side response and data science in general.
