Overconfidence and War

Overconfidence and War PDF Author: Dominic D. P. Johnson
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 0674039165
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 289

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Book Description
Opponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War, states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war. Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century history: two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions. The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly.

Overconfidence and War

Overconfidence and War PDF Author: Dominic D. P. Johnson
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 0674039165
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 289

Get Book Here

Book Description
Opponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War, states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war. Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century history: two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions. The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly.

Positive Illusions

Positive Illusions PDF Author: Shelley E. Taylor
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Adaptability (Psychology)
Languages : en
Pages : 328

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Book Description


The Happy Mind: Cognitive Contributions to Well-Being

The Happy Mind: Cognitive Contributions to Well-Being PDF Author: Michael D. Robinson
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319587633
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 470

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Book Description
This edited volume focuses on different views of happiness and well-being, considering constructs like meaning and spirituality in addition to the more standard constructs of positive emotion and life satisfaction. A premise of the volume is that being happy consists of more than having the right things happen to us; it also depends on how we interpret those events as well as what we are trying to achieve. Such considerations suggest that cognitive-emotional factors should play a fairly pronounced role in how happy we are. The present volume pursues these themes in the context of 25 chapters organized into 5 sections. The first section centers on cognitive variables such as attention and executive function, in addition to mindfulness. The second section considers important sources of positive cognition such as savoring and optimism and the third section focuses on self-regulatory contributions to well-being. Finally, social processes are covered in a fourth section and meaning-related processes are covered in the fifth. What results is a rich and diverse volume centering on the ways in which our minds can help or hinder our aspirations for happiness.

The Self: Interdisciplinary Approaches

The Self: Interdisciplinary Approaches PDF Author: Jaine Strauss
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1468482645
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 289

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Book Description
A truly remarkable explosion of interest in the self has taken place in the past two decades, in psychology and related disciplines. This book presents a wide range of recent work on the self, from self-awareness in chimpanzees to multiple-personality disorders, self-esteem in adolescents, as well as fundamental issues going back to the work of James, Cooley and others. Three main groups or clusters of themes emerge. The first cluster consists of chapters that discuss the organization and coherence of the self; the second one deals with self-awareness and self-deception; and the third one examines, in new ways, the question of the relationship between self and other. While it is difficult to predict exactly where future work on the self will lead scholars, this work points in some significant directions and provides a firm reference in the field.

Beyond Illusions

Beyond Illusions PDF Author: Brad Barton
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780615468365
Category : Perception
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description


The Illusion of Conscious Will

The Illusion of Conscious Will PDF Author: Daniel M. Wegner
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262290553
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 743

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Book Description
A novel contribution to the age-old debate about free will versus determinism. Do we consciously cause our actions, or do they happen to us? Philosophers, psychologists, neuroscientists, theologians, and lawyers have long debated the existence of free will versus determinism. In this book Daniel Wegner offers a novel understanding of the issue. Like actions, he argues, the feeling of conscious will is created by the mind and brain. Yet if psychological and neural mechanisms are responsible for all human behavior, how could we have conscious will? The feeling of conscious will, Wegner shows, helps us to appreciate and remember our authorship of the things our minds and bodies do. Yes, we feel that we consciously will our actions, Wegner says, but at the same time, our actions happen to us. Although conscious will is an illusion, it serves as a guide to understanding ourselves and to developing a sense of responsibility and morality. Approaching conscious will as a topic of psychological study, Wegner examines the issue from a variety of angles. He looks at illusions of the will—those cases where people feel that they are willing an act that they are not doing or, conversely, are not willing an act that they in fact are doing. He explores conscious will in hypnosis, Ouija board spelling, automatic writing, and facilitated communication, as well as in such phenomena as spirit possession, dissociative identity disorder, and trance channeling. The result is a book that sidesteps endless debates to focus, more fruitfully, on the impact on our lives of the illusion of conscious will.

Well-Being

Well-Being PDF Author: Neera K. Badhwar
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199717338
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 265

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Book Description
This book offers a new argument for the ancient claim that well-being as the highest prudential good -- eudaimonia --consists of happiness in a virtuous life. The argument takes into account recent work on happiness, well-being, and virtue, and defends a neo-Aristotelian conception of virtue as an integrated intellectual-emotional disposition that is limited in both scope and stability. This conception of virtue is argued to be widely held and compatible with social and cognitive psychology. The main argument of the book is as follows: (i) the concept of well-being as the highest prudential good is internally coherent and widely held; (ii) well-being thus conceived requires an objectively worthwhile life; (iii) in turn, such a life requires autonomy and reality-orientation, i.e., a disposition to think for oneself, seek truth or understanding about important aspects of one's own life and human life in general, and act on this understanding when circumstances permit; (iv) to the extent that someone is successful in achieving understanding and acting on it, she is realistic, and to the extent that she is realistic, she is virtuous; (v) hence, well-being as the highest prudential good requires virtue. But complete virtue is impossible for both psychological and epistemic reasons, and this is one reason why complete well-being is impossible.

The Optimism Bias

The Optimism Bias PDF Author: Tali Sharot
Publisher: Vintage
ISBN: 0307379833
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 273

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Book Description
Psychologists have long been aware that most people maintain an irrationally positive outlook on life—but why? Turns out, we might be hardwired that way. In this absorbing exploration, Tali Sharot—one of the most innovative neuroscientists at work today—demonstrates that optimism may be crucial to human existence. The Optimism Bias explores how the brain generates hope and what happens when it fails; how the brains of optimists and pessimists differ; why we are terrible at predicting what will make us happy; how emotions strengthen our ability to recollect; how anticipation and dread affect us; how our optimistic illusions affect our financial, professional, and emotional decisions; and more. Drawing on cutting-edge science, The Optimism Bias provides us with startling new insight into the workings of the brain and the major role that optimism plays in determining how we live our lives.

Positive Psychology

Positive Psychology PDF Author: Alan Carr
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 9781583919910
Category : Health & Fitness
Languages : en
Pages : 412

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Book Description
Remediating deficits and managing disabilities has been a central preoccupation for clinical psychologists for much of the past 50 years. Positive psychology, in contrast, is concerned with the enhancement of happiness and well-being, involving the scientific study of the role of personal strengths and positive social systems in the promotion of optimal well-being. The central themes of positive psychology, including happiness, hope, creativity, and wisdom, are all investigated in this book in the context of their possible applications in clinical practice. (Midwest).

Choices and Illusions

Choices and Illusions PDF Author: Eldon Taylor
Publisher:
ISBN: 1401943381
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
Languages : en
Pages : 265

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Book Description
Explains the workings of the human mind and how its power can be used to change the world and realize full potential.