Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Interest Rates and Learning About Stock Return Predictability PDF Download
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Author: Marcos Escobar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
The problem of optimal wealth allocation is solved under the assumptions that interest rates are stochastic and stock returns are predictable with observed and unobserved factors. The stock risk premium is taken to be an affine function of the predictive variables and the stock return volatility is assumed to depend on the observed factor. The latent factor is estimated based on the observations. It is shown that the stock return predictability can significantly impact the optimal bond portfolio. The welfare loss from ignoring learning can be considerable.
Author: Marcos Escobar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
The problem of optimal wealth allocation is solved under the assumptions that interest rates are stochastic and stock returns are predictable with observed and unobserved factors. The stock risk premium is taken to be an affine function of the predictive variables and the stock return volatility is assumed to depend on the observed factor. The latent factor is estimated based on the observations. It is shown that the stock return predictability can significantly impact the optimal bond portfolio. The welfare loss from ignoring learning can be considerable.
Author: Abraham Lioui
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In an economy where interest rates and stock price changes follow fairly general stochastic processes, we analyse the portfolio problem of an expected utility investor. When the investment opportunity set is driven by an arbitrary number of state variables, the optimal portfolio strategy is known to contain a speculative element and Merton-Breeden hedging terms against the fluctuations of each and every state variable. While the first component is well identified and easy to work out, the implementation of the last ones is problematic as the investor must identify all the relevant state variables and estimate their distribution characteristics. Using a new decomposition of the optimal wealth, we show that the optimal strategy can be simplified to include, in addition to the speculative component, only two Merton-Breeden type hedging elements, however large is the number of state variables. The first one is associated with interest rate risk and the second one with the risk brought about by the co-movements of the spot interest rate and the market prices of risk. The implementation of the optimal strategy is thus much easier, as it involves estimating the characteristics of the yield curve and the market prices of risk only rather than those of numerous (a priori unknown) state variables. Moreover, the investor's horizon is shown explicitly to play a crucial role in the optimal strategy design, in sharp contrast with the traditional decomposition.
Author: Nicolas Chapados
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461405777
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 107
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Book Description
This brief offers a broad, yet concise, coverage of portfolio choice, containing both application-oriented and academic results, along with abundant pointers to the literature for further study. It cuts through many strands of the subject, presenting not only the classical results from financial economics but also approaches originating from information theory, machine learning and operations research. This compact treatment of the topic will be valuable to students entering the field, as well as practitioners looking for a broad coverage of the topic.
Author: Claus Munk
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
We study the dynamic consumption and portfolio choice of an investor who has habit formation in preferences and access to a complete financial market. For general, possibly non-Markov, dynamics of market prices, we provide an exact characterization of the optimal behavior in terms of two relatively simple and intuitively interpretable stochastic processes. We study in more detail the optimal strategies in two concrete examples of time-varying investment opportunities. Firstly, we derive a closed-form solution of the optimal consumption and portfolio choice with mean-reverting stock returns. Secondly, with Cox-Ingersoll-Ross interest rate dynamics we can express the optimal strategies in terms of the solution to a partial differential equation, which has an explicit solution for time-additive preferences, but not with habit formation. Our numerical examples show that, while hedging demands for various assets are affected differently by habit persistence, the main effect on relative asset allocations stems from the fact that some assets (bonds and cash) are better investment objects than others (stocks) when it comes to ensuring that future consumption will not fall below the habit level. The implications of habit persistence in models with labor income are also addressed.
Author: Bradley Steele Paye
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Asset allocation
Languages : en
Pages : 380
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Book Description
Author: Hong Liu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
We consider the optimal portfolio selection problem for a constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) investor who derives utility from his terminal wealth. The stock returns are predictable, but the predictive variables are only periodically observable with noise. We obtain the investor's value function in an explicit form. The theoretical results are then used to study an empirical model after calibration. We show that lack of continuous or precise observation of the predictive variables has a large impact on the optimal trading strategy. We demonstrate how information value changes with risk aversion, investment horizon, observation error volatility and other parameters. In addition, we find that although the benefit of incorporating predictability is significantly reduced due to the periodic and noisy observation, the cost of ignoring predictability is still substantial.
Author: Jean-Pierre Fouque
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 113950245X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 456
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Book Description
Building upon the ideas introduced in their previous book, Derivatives in Financial Markets with Stochastic Volatility, the authors study the pricing and hedging of financial derivatives under stochastic volatility in equity, interest-rate, and credit markets. They present and analyze multiscale stochastic volatility models and asymptotic approximations. These can be used in equity markets, for instance, to link the prices of path-dependent exotic instruments to market implied volatilities. The methods are also used for interest rate and credit derivatives. Other applications considered include variance-reduction techniques, portfolio optimization, forward-looking estimation of CAPM 'beta', and the Heston model and generalizations of it. 'Off-the-shelf' formulas and calibration tools are provided to ease the transition for practitioners who adopt this new method. The attention to detail and explicit presentation make this also an excellent text for a graduate course in financial and applied mathematics.
Author: Abraham Lioui
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262039370
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 497
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Book Description
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Author: Michael W. Brandt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
We present a simulation-based method for solving discrete-time portfolio choice problems involving non-standard preferences, a large number of assets with arbitrary return distribution, and, most importantly, a large number of state variables with potentially path-dependent or non-stationary dynamics. The method is flexible enough to accommodate intermediate consumption, portfolio constraints, parameter and model uncertainty, and learning. We first establish the properties of the method for the portfolio choice between a stock index and cash when the stock returns are either iid or predictable by the dividend yield. We then explore the problem of an investor who takes into account the predictability of returns but is uncertain about the parameters of the data generating process. The investor chooses the portfolio anticipating that future data realizations will contain useful information to learn about the true parameter values.
