Option Prices as Probabilities

Option Prices as Probabilities PDF Author: Christophe Profeta
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642103952
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 282

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Book Description
Discovered in the seventies, Black-Scholes formula continues to play a central role in Mathematical Finance. We recall this formula. Let (B ,t? 0; F ,t? 0, P) - t t note a standard Brownian motion with B = 0, (F ,t? 0) being its natural ?ltra- 0 t t tion. Let E := exp B? ,t? 0 denote the exponential martingale associated t t 2 to (B ,t? 0). This martingale, also called geometric Brownian motion, is a model t to describe the evolution of prices of a risky asset. Let, for every K? 0: + ? (t) :=E (K?E ) (0.1) K t and + C (t) :=E (E?K) (0.2) K t denote respectively the price of a European put, resp. of a European call, associated with this martingale. Let N be the cumulative distribution function of a reduced Gaussian variable: x 2 y 1 ? 2 ? N (x) := e dy. (0.3) 2? ?? The celebrated Black-Scholes formula gives an explicit expression of? (t) and K C (t) in terms ofN : K ? ? log(K) t log(K) t ? (t)= KN ? + ?N ? ? (0.4) K t 2 t 2 and ? ?

Option Prices as Probabilities

Option Prices as Probabilities PDF Author: Christophe Profeta
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642103952
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 282

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Book Description
Discovered in the seventies, Black-Scholes formula continues to play a central role in Mathematical Finance. We recall this formula. Let (B ,t? 0; F ,t? 0, P) - t t note a standard Brownian motion with B = 0, (F ,t? 0) being its natural ?ltra- 0 t t tion. Let E := exp B? ,t? 0 denote the exponential martingale associated t t 2 to (B ,t? 0). This martingale, also called geometric Brownian motion, is a model t to describe the evolution of prices of a risky asset. Let, for every K? 0: + ? (t) :=E (K?E ) (0.1) K t and + C (t) :=E (E?K) (0.2) K t denote respectively the price of a European put, resp. of a European call, associated with this martingale. Let N be the cumulative distribution function of a reduced Gaussian variable: x 2 y 1 ? 2 ? N (x) := e dy. (0.3) 2? ?? The celebrated Black-Scholes formula gives an explicit expression of? (t) and K C (t) in terms ofN : K ? ? log(K) t log(K) t ? (t)= KN ? + ?N ? ? (0.4) K t 2 t 2 and ? ?

Option Prices As Probabilities

Option Prices As Probabilities PDF Author: Christophe Profeta
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783642103964
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 294

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Book Description


Using Option Prices to Estimate Realignment Probabilities in the European Monetary System

Using Option Prices to Estimate Realignment Probabilities in the European Monetary System PDF Author: Allan M. Malz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 60

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Book Description


How to Price and Trade Options

How to Price and Trade Options PDF Author: Al Sherbin
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118871227
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 224

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Book Description
Select and execute the best trades—and reduce risk Rather than teaching options from a financial perspective, How to Price and Trade Options: Identify, Analyze, and Execute the Best Trade Probabilities goes back to the Nobel Prize-winning Black-Scholes model. Written by well-known options expert Al Sherbin, it looks at the basis for probability theory in option trading and explains how to put the odds in your favor when trading options. Inside, you'll discover how anyone can "operate their own casino" if they know how through proper option strategies. Plus, a supplemental website includes videos that walk you through various probability scenarios, pre-formatted spreadsheets, and code. All investors should have a portion of their portfolio set aside for option trades. Not only do options provide great opportunities for leveraged plays, they can also help you earn larger profits with a smaller amount of cash outlay. With the help of this book, traders, active investors, and self-directed investors of all stripes will learn how simple it can be to deploy probability-based trading strategies. Teaches both defined and undefined risk strategies Utilizes simple cost basis reduction strategies to enhance investment returns Draws on unique research studies Discusses volatility to include both historical (realized) and implied volatility: the interplay between the two is a key piece of information overlooked by option traders If you're a trader of any level and want to make the best trades possible, this book has you covered.

Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion

Option-Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion PDF Author: Jens Carsten Jackwerth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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How to Price and Trade Options

How to Price and Trade Options PDF Author: Al Sherbin
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118871146
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 231

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Book Description
Select and execute the best trades—and reduce risk Rather than teaching options from a financial perspective, How to Price and Trade Options: Identify, Analyze, and Execute the Best Trade Probabilities goes back to the Nobel Prize-winning Black-Scholes model. Written by well-known options expert Al Sherbin, it looks at the basis for probability theory in option trading and explains how to put the odds in your favor when trading options. Inside, you'll discover how anyone can "operate their own casino" if they know how through proper option strategies. Plus, a supplemental website includes videos that walk you through various probability scenarios, pre-formatted spreadsheets, and code. All investors should have a portion of their portfolio set aside for option trades. Not only do options provide great opportunities for leveraged plays, they can also help you earn larger profits with a smaller amount of cash outlay. With the help of this book, traders, active investors, and self-directed investors of all stripes will learn how simple it can be to deploy probability-based trading strategies. Teaches both defined and undefined risk strategies Utilizes simple cost basis reduction strategies to enhance investment returns Draws on unique research studies Discusses volatility to include both historical (realized) and implied volatility: the interplay between the two is a key piece of information overlooked by option traders If you're a trader of any level and want to make the best trades possible, this book has you covered.

The Option Trader's Guide to Probability, Volatility, and Timing

The Option Trader's Guide to Probability, Volatility, and Timing PDF Author: Jay Kaeppel
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471273856
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 287

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Book Description
A comprehensive guide that lets you play the options game with confidence Due to the uncontrollable elements associated with options, many traders find themselves without practical strategies for specific situations. The Option Trader's Guide to Probability, Volatility, and Timing offers traders a variety of strategies to trade options intelligently and confidently in any given situation. With detail and objectivity, this book sets forth risk assessment guidelines, explains risk curve analysis, discusses exit methods, and uncovers some of the biggest mistakes options traders make. The Option Trader's Guide provides readers with strategies for trading options as well as expert advice on when to implement those strategies.

Vertical Option Spreads

Vertical Option Spreads PDF Author: Charles Conrick, IV
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118746937
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 259

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Book Description
Make trades on vertical options spreads with the precision of a laser beam Vertical Options Spreads is a combination of a bona-fide academic research-based study and a complete method to trade credit and debit spreads, along with other complex option combination trades such as iron condors and butterflies. Here, the author has accumulated five years of daily data on the ETF, SPY and provided historical evidence of actual win rates at specific multiples of entry points, both in time and price level. For example, traders will be able to use the weekly options, pick a level of risk and return desired, learn how to place the trade, and then discover the actual percent return that the trade would have yielded. This must-have resource includes the basics of option trading and contains references to many excellent works by other authors that explore more about the intricacies of option mechanics and trading. It is far more than an analysis of one specific asset, SPY, featuring a study of probability theory and how it has applied to trading over the past five years, including the highly volatile 2007 to 2009 time frame and the more "normal" 2010 to 2012 time period. The book offer a thorough understanding of how price movement, actual volatility, and implied volatility all provide a complex but workable web in which the informed trader can generate excellent returns. However, the trader must have the discipline to act within the confines of probability and the "law" of large numbers refusing to place trades based on gut feelings or hunches. Offers high-probability based trading that uses the new weekly options Contains handy interactive worksheets that allow traders to select their own risk/return with precision Includes a website with daily and weekly information on the estimate of the actual standard deviation points on the price spectrum Vertical Options Spreads offers traders a research-based guide for trading Standard & Poors 500 ETF, SPY using historic and estimated probabilities and returns that will give them an edge in the marketplace.

The Mathematics of Options

The Mathematics of Options PDF Author: Michael C. Thomsett
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319566350
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331

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Book Description
This book is written for the experienced portfolio manager and professional options traders. It is a practical guide offering how to apply options math in a trading world that demands mathematical measurement. Every options trader deals with an array of calculations: beginners learn to identify risks and opportunities using a short list of strategies, while researchers and academics turn to advanced technical manuals. However, almost no books exist for the experienced portfolio managers and professional options traders who fall between these extremes. Michael C. Thomsett addresses this glaring gap with The Mathematics of Options, a practical guide with actionable tools for the practical application of options math in a world that demands quantification. It serves as a valuable reference for advanced methods of evaluating issues of pricing, payoff, probability, and risk. In his characteristic approachable style, Thomsett simplifies complex hot button issues—such as strategic payoffs, return calculations, and hedging options—that may be mentioned in introductory texts but are often underserved. The result is a comprehensive book that helps traders understand the mathematic concepts of options trading so that they can improve their skills and outcomes.

Option Volatility Trading Strategies

Option Volatility Trading Strategies PDF Author: Sheldon Natenberg
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1592802923
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 180

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Book Description
Sheldon Natenberg is one of the most sought after speakers on the topic of option trading and volatility strategies. This book takes Sheldon’s non-technical, carefully crafted presentation style and applies it to a book—one that you’ll study and carry around for years as your personal consultant. Learn about the most vital concepts that define options trading, concepts you’ll need to analyze and trade with confidence. In this volume, Sheldon explains the difference between historical volatility, future volatility, and implied volatility. He provides real inspiration and wisdom gleaned from years of trading experience. Th is book captures the energy of the spoken message direct from the source. Learn about implied volatility and how it is calculated Gain insight into the assumptions driving an options pricing model Master the techniques of comparing price to value Realize the important part that probability plays in estimating option prices