Theory of Games and Statistical Decisions PDF Download
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Author: David A. Blackwell
Publisher: Courier Corporation
ISBN: 0486150895
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 388
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Book Description
Evaluating statistical procedures through decision and game theory, as first proposed by Neyman and Pearson and extended by Wald, is the goal of this problem-oriented text in mathematical statistics. First-year graduate students in statistics and other students with a background in statistical theory and advanced calculus will find a rigorous, thorough presentation of statistical decision theory treated as a special case of game theory. The work of Borel, von Neumann, and Morgenstern in game theory, of prime importance to decision theory, is covered in its relevant aspects: reduction of games to normal forms, the minimax theorem, and the utility theorem. With this introduction, Blackwell and Professor Girshick look at: Values and Optimal Strategies in Games; General Structure of Statistical Games; Utility and Principles of Choice; Classes of Optimal Strategies; Fixed Sample-Size Games with Finite Ω and with Finite A; Sufficient Statistics and the Invariance Principle; Sequential Games; Bayes and Minimax Sequential Procedures; Estimation; and Comparison of Experiments. A few topics not directly applicable to statistics, such as perfect information theory, are also discussed. Prerequisites for full understanding of the procedures in this book include knowledge of elementary analysis, and some familiarity with matrices, determinants, and linear dependence. For purposes of formal development, only discrete distributions are used, though continuous distributions are employed as illustrations. The number and variety of problems presented will be welcomed by all students, computer experts, and others using statistics and game theory. This comprehensive and sophisticated introduction remains one of the strongest and most useful approaches to a field which today touches areas as diverse as gambling and particle physics.
Author: David A. Blackwell
Publisher: Courier Corporation
ISBN: 0486150895
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 388
Get Book Here
Book Description
Evaluating statistical procedures through decision and game theory, as first proposed by Neyman and Pearson and extended by Wald, is the goal of this problem-oriented text in mathematical statistics. First-year graduate students in statistics and other students with a background in statistical theory and advanced calculus will find a rigorous, thorough presentation of statistical decision theory treated as a special case of game theory. The work of Borel, von Neumann, and Morgenstern in game theory, of prime importance to decision theory, is covered in its relevant aspects: reduction of games to normal forms, the minimax theorem, and the utility theorem. With this introduction, Blackwell and Professor Girshick look at: Values and Optimal Strategies in Games; General Structure of Statistical Games; Utility and Principles of Choice; Classes of Optimal Strategies; Fixed Sample-Size Games with Finite Ω and with Finite A; Sufficient Statistics and the Invariance Principle; Sequential Games; Bayes and Minimax Sequential Procedures; Estimation; and Comparison of Experiments. A few topics not directly applicable to statistics, such as perfect information theory, are also discussed. Prerequisites for full understanding of the procedures in this book include knowledge of elementary analysis, and some familiarity with matrices, determinants, and linear dependence. For purposes of formal development, only discrete distributions are used, though continuous distributions are employed as illustrations. The number and variety of problems presented will be welcomed by all students, computer experts, and others using statistics and game theory. This comprehensive and sophisticated introduction remains one of the strongest and most useful approaches to a field which today touches areas as diverse as gambling and particle physics.
Author: Irfan Ali
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000404722
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 434
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Book Description
The book provides insights in the decision-making for implementing strategies in various spheres of real-world issues. It integrates optimal policies in various decisionmaking problems and serves as a reference for researchers and industrial practitioners. Furthermore, the book provides sound knowledge of modelling of real-world problems and solution procedure using the various optimisation and statistical techniques for making optimal decisions. The book is meant for teachers, students, researchers and industrialists who are working in the field of materials science, especially operations research and applied statistics.
Author: F. Liese
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387731946
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 696
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Book Description
For advanced graduate students, this book is a one-stop shop that presents the main ideas of decision theory in an organized, balanced, and mathematically rigorous manner, while observing statistical relevance. All of the major topics are introduced at an elementary level, then developed incrementally to higher levels. The book is self-contained as it provides full proofs, worked-out examples, and problems. The authors present a rigorous account of the concepts and a broad treatment of the major results of classical finite sample size decision theory and modern asymptotic decision theory. With its broad coverage of decision theory, this book fills the gap between standard graduate texts in mathematical statistics and advanced monographs on modern asymptotic theory.
Author: Norbert Schmitz
Publisher: Springer
ISBN:
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 230
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Book Description
This volume is concerned with statistical procedures where the data are collected in sequentially designed groups. The basic premise here is that the expected total sample size is not always the appropriate criterion for evaluating statistical procedures, especially for nonlinear sampling costs (e.g. additive fixed costs) and in clinical trials. In fact, this criterion seems to have been a hindrance to the practical use of Wald's sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) despite its well-known optimum properties. This volume systematically develops decision procedures which retain the possibility of early stopping and remove some of the disadvantages of one-at-a-time sampling. In particular, for generalizations of the SPRT algorithms, methods for computing characteristics (such as operating characteristics or power functions, expected sampling costs, etc.) are developed and implemented. The procedures turn out to be optimal in a Bayesian sense as well as for problems with side conditions (e.g. specified bounds on error probabilities or expected sampling costs). A theory of optimal sampling is developed in order to prove the various properties of the procedures.
Author: Peter Goos
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119976162
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 249
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Book Description
"This is an engaging and informative book on the modern practice of experimental design. The authors' writing style is entertaining, the consulting dialogs are extremely enjoyable, and the technical material is presented brilliantly but not overwhelmingly. The book is a joy to read. Everyone who practices or teaches DOE should read this book." - Douglas C. Montgomery, Regents Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Arizona State University "It's been said: 'Design for the experiment, don't experiment for the design.' This book ably demonstrates this notion by showing how tailor-made, optimal designs can be effectively employed to meet a client's actual needs. It should be required reading for anyone interested in using the design of experiments in industrial settings." —Christopher J. Nachtsheim, Frank A Donaldson Chair in Operations Management, Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota This book demonstrates the utility of the computer-aided optimal design approach using real industrial examples. These examples address questions such as the following: How can I do screening inexpensively if I have dozens of factors to investigate? What can I do if I have day-to-day variability and I can only perform 3 runs a day? How can I do RSM cost effectively if I have categorical factors? How can I design and analyze experiments when there is a factor that can only be changed a few times over the study? How can I include both ingredients in a mixture and processing factors in the same study? How can I design an experiment if there are many factor combinations that are impossible to run? How can I make sure that a time trend due to warming up of equipment does not affect the conclusions from a study? How can I take into account batch information in when designing experiments involving multiple batches? How can I add runs to a botched experiment to resolve ambiguities? While answering these questions the book also shows how to evaluate and compare designs. This allows researchers to make sensible trade-offs between the cost of experimentation and the amount of information they obtain.
Author: James Berger
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 147571727X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 440
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Book Description
Decision theory is generally taught in one of two very different ways. When of opti taught by theoretical statisticians, it tends to be presented as a set of mathematical techniques mality principles, together with a collection of various statistical procedures. When useful in establishing the optimality taught by applied decision theorists, it is usually a course in Bayesian analysis, showing how this one decision principle can be applied in various practical situations. The original goal I had in writing this book was to find some middle ground. I wanted a book which discussed the more theoretical ideas and techniques of decision theory, but in a manner that was constantly oriented towards solving statistical problems. In particular, it seemed crucial to include a discussion of when and why the various decision prin ciples should be used, and indeed why decision theory is needed at all. This original goal seemed indicated by my philosophical position at the time, which can best be described as basically neutral. I felt that no one approach to decision theory (or statistics) was clearly superior to the others, and so planned a rather low key and impartial presentation of the competing ideas. In the course of writing the book, however, I turned into a rabid Bayesian. There was no single cause for this conversion; just a gradual realization that things seemed to ultimately make sense only when looked at from the Bayesian viewpoint.
Author: Deborah G. Mayo
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108563309
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 503
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Book Description
Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.
Author: Franco Pavese
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812839526
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 419
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Book Description
The main theme of the AMCTM 2008 conference, reinforced by the establishment of IMEKO TC21, was to provide a central opportunity for the metrology and testing community worldwide to engage with applied mathematicians, statisticians and software engineers working in the relevant fields. This review volume consists of reviewed papers prepared on the basis of the oral and poster presentations of the Conference participants. It covers all the general matters of advanced statistical modeling (e.g. uncertainty evaluation, experimental design, optimization, data analysis and applications, multiple measurands, correlation, etc.), metrology software (e.g. engineering aspects, requirements or specification, risk assessment, software development, software examination, software tools for data analysis, visualization, experiment control, best practice, standards, etc.), numerical methods (e.g. numerical data analysis, numerical simulations, inverse problems, uncertainty evaluation of numerical algorithms, applications, etc.), and data fusion techniques and design and analysis of inter-laboratory comparisons.
Author: Danyu Lin
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1441990763
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 332
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Book Description
This volume contains a selection of papers presented at the Second Seattle Symposium in Biostatistics: Analysis of Correlated Data. The symposium was held in 2000 to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the University of Washington School of Public Health and Community Medicine. It featured keynote lectures by Norman Breslow, David Cox and Ross Prentice and 16 invited presentations by other prominent researchers. The papers contained in this volume encompass recent methodological advances in several important areas, such as longitudinal data, multivariate failure time data and genetic data, as well as innovative applications of the existing theory and methods. This volume is a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the field of correlated data analysis.
Author: Georgi Zdravkov Georgiev
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781694079725
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 302
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Book Description
"Statistical Methods in Online A/B Testing" is a comprehensive guide to statistics in online controlled experiments, a.k.a. A/B tests, that tackles the difficult matter of statistical inference in a way accessible to readers with little to no prior experience with it. Each concept is built from the ground up, explained thoroughly, and illustrated with practical examples from website testing. The presentation is straight to the point and practically oriented so you can apply the takeaways in your daily work.It is a must-read for anyone looking for a deep understanding of how to make data-driven business decisions through experimentation: conversion rate optimizers, product managers, growth experts, data analysts, marketing managers, experts in user experience and design. The new research presented and the fresh perspective on how to apply statistics and experimentation to achieve business goals make for an interesting read even for experienced statisticians.The book deals with scientific methods, but their introductions and explanations are grounded in the business goals they help achieve, such as innovating under controlled risk, and estimating the effect of proposed business actions before committing to them. While the book doesn't shy away from math and formulas, it is to the extent to which these are essential for understanding and applying the underlying concepts. The presentation is friendly to readers with little to no prior knowledge in statistics. Artificial and impractical examples like dice rolling and betting are absent, instead statistical concepts are illustrated through scenarios which might well be mistaken with the last couple of A/B tests you managed.This book also doesn't shy away from the fact that much of the current statistical theory and practice in online A/B testing is misguided, misinterpreted, or misapplied. It also addresses the issue of blind copying of scientific applications without due consideration of the unique features of online business, which is widespread. The book will help you avoid these malpractices by explicitly pointing out frequent mistakes, while also helping you align your usage of statistics and experimentation with any business goals you might want to pursue.
