Author: Reda Cherif
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475502451
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
Policymakers in oil-exporting countries confront the question of how to allocate oil revenues among consumption, saving, and investment in the face of high income volatility. We study this allocation problem in a precautionary saving and investment model under uncertainty. Consistent with data in the 2000s, precautionary saving is sizable and the marginal propensity to consume out of permanent shocks is below one, in stark contrast to the predictions of the perfect foresight model. The optimal investment rate is high if productivity in the tradable sector is high enough.
Oil Exporters' Dilemma
Author: Reda Cherif
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475502451
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
Policymakers in oil-exporting countries confront the question of how to allocate oil revenues among consumption, saving, and investment in the face of high income volatility. We study this allocation problem in a precautionary saving and investment model under uncertainty. Consistent with data in the 2000s, precautionary saving is sizable and the marginal propensity to consume out of permanent shocks is below one, in stark contrast to the predictions of the perfect foresight model. The optimal investment rate is high if productivity in the tradable sector is high enough.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475502451
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
Policymakers in oil-exporting countries confront the question of how to allocate oil revenues among consumption, saving, and investment in the face of high income volatility. We study this allocation problem in a precautionary saving and investment model under uncertainty. Consistent with data in the 2000s, precautionary saving is sizable and the marginal propensity to consume out of permanent shocks is below one, in stark contrast to the predictions of the perfect foresight model. The optimal investment rate is high if productivity in the tradable sector is high enough.
Drilling Down
Author: Joseph A. Tainter
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1441976779
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 248
Book Description
For more than a century, oil has been the engine of growth for a society that delivers an unprecedented standard of living to many. We now take for granted that economic growth is good, necessary, and even inevitable, but also feel a sense of unease about the simultaneous growth of complexity in the processes and institutions that generate and manage that growth. As societies grow more complex through the bounty of cheap energy, they also confront problems that seem to increase in number and severity. In this era of fossil fuels, cheap energy and increasing complexity have been in a mutually-reinforcing spiral. The more energy we have and the more problems our societies confront, the more we grow complex and require still more energy. How did our demand for energy, our technological prowess, the resulting need for complex problem solving, and the end of easy oil conspire to make the Deepwater Horizon oil spill increasingly likely, if not inevitable? This book explains the real causal factors leading up to the worst environmental catastrophe in U.S. history, a disaster from which it will take decades to recover.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1441976779
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 248
Book Description
For more than a century, oil has been the engine of growth for a society that delivers an unprecedented standard of living to many. We now take for granted that economic growth is good, necessary, and even inevitable, but also feel a sense of unease about the simultaneous growth of complexity in the processes and institutions that generate and manage that growth. As societies grow more complex through the bounty of cheap energy, they also confront problems that seem to increase in number and severity. In this era of fossil fuels, cheap energy and increasing complexity have been in a mutually-reinforcing spiral. The more energy we have and the more problems our societies confront, the more we grow complex and require still more energy. How did our demand for energy, our technological prowess, the resulting need for complex problem solving, and the end of easy oil conspire to make the Deepwater Horizon oil spill increasingly likely, if not inevitable? This book explains the real causal factors leading up to the worst environmental catastrophe in U.S. history, a disaster from which it will take decades to recover.
Petro-Aggression
Author: Jeff D. Colgan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107311292
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 327
Book Description
Oil is the world's single most important commodity and its political effects are pervasive. Jeff D. Colgan extends the idea of the resource curse into the realm of international relations, exploring how countries form their foreign policy preferences and intentions. Why are some but not all oil-exporting 'petrostates' aggressive? To answer this question, a theory of aggressive foreign policy preferences is developed and then tested, using both quantitative and qualitative methods. Petro-Aggression shows that oil creates incentives that increase a petrostate's aggression, but also incentives for the opposite. The net effect depends critically on its domestic politics, especially the preferences of its leader. Revolutionary leaders are especially significant. Using case studies including Iraq, Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, this book offers new insight into why oil politics has a central role in global peace and conflict.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107311292
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 327
Book Description
Oil is the world's single most important commodity and its political effects are pervasive. Jeff D. Colgan extends the idea of the resource curse into the realm of international relations, exploring how countries form their foreign policy preferences and intentions. Why are some but not all oil-exporting 'petrostates' aggressive? To answer this question, a theory of aggressive foreign policy preferences is developed and then tested, using both quantitative and qualitative methods. Petro-Aggression shows that oil creates incentives that increase a petrostate's aggression, but also incentives for the opposite. The net effect depends critically on its domestic politics, especially the preferences of its leader. Revolutionary leaders are especially significant. Using case studies including Iraq, Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, this book offers new insight into why oil politics has a central role in global peace and conflict.
The Oil Curse
Author: Michael L. Ross
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691159637
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 314
Book Description
Explaining—and solving—the oil curse in the developing world Countries that are rich in petroleum have less democracy, less economic stability, and more frequent civil wars than countries without oil. What explains this oil curse? And can it be fixed? In this groundbreaking analysis, Michael L. Ross looks at how developing nations are shaped by their mineral wealth—and how they can turn oil from a curse into a blessing. Ross traces the oil curse to the upheaval of the 1970s, when oil prices soared and governments across the developing world seized control of their countries' oil industries. Before nationalization, the oil-rich countries looked much like the rest of the world; today, they are 50 percent more likely to be ruled by autocrats—and twice as likely to descend into civil war—than countries without oil. The Oil Curse shows why oil wealth typically creates less economic growth than it should; why it produces jobs for men but not women; and why it creates more problems in poor states than in rich ones. It also warns that the global thirst for petroleum is causing companies to drill in increasingly poor nations, which could further spread the oil curse. This landmark book explains why good geology often leads to bad governance, and how this can be changed.
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691159637
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 314
Book Description
Explaining—and solving—the oil curse in the developing world Countries that are rich in petroleum have less democracy, less economic stability, and more frequent civil wars than countries without oil. What explains this oil curse? And can it be fixed? In this groundbreaking analysis, Michael L. Ross looks at how developing nations are shaped by their mineral wealth—and how they can turn oil from a curse into a blessing. Ross traces the oil curse to the upheaval of the 1970s, when oil prices soared and governments across the developing world seized control of their countries' oil industries. Before nationalization, the oil-rich countries looked much like the rest of the world; today, they are 50 percent more likely to be ruled by autocrats—and twice as likely to descend into civil war—than countries without oil. The Oil Curse shows why oil wealth typically creates less economic growth than it should; why it produces jobs for men but not women; and why it creates more problems in poor states than in rich ones. It also warns that the global thirst for petroleum is causing companies to drill in increasingly poor nations, which could further spread the oil curse. This landmark book explains why good geology often leads to bad governance, and how this can be changed.
Global Energy Dilemmas
Author: Mike Bradshaw
Publisher: Polity
ISBN: 0745650651
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 243
Book Description
Today’s global energy system faces two major challenges: how to secure the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and how to rapidly transform to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally harmless energy supply. In this rigorous and illuminating book, Michael Bradshaw explores the key aspects of the current global energy dilemma and examines how it is playing out across the major regions and countries of the world. The book begins by charting the development of the current global energy system - exploring its key characteristics with a focus upon energy security and the relationship between energy, economic development and climate change. The next four chapters offer in-depth analyses of four distinct global energy dilemmas in different parts of the world: the challenge of sustaining affluence and decarbonising energy services in the high-energy economies of the developed world; the legacies of the centrally planned economy and the consequences of liberalisation in the post-socialist world; growing energy demand and emissions growth associated with the emerging regions; and finally, the quest to provide universal access to modern energy services in the developing world in a manner that is both economically and environmentally sustainable. Identifying the governance structures and policy options available to tackle the global energy dilemma, the book concludes that only an integrated approach - sensitive to regional issues - can reconcile the interests and needs of those facing differing energy challenges across the world today.
Publisher: Polity
ISBN: 0745650651
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 243
Book Description
Today’s global energy system faces two major challenges: how to secure the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and how to rapidly transform to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally harmless energy supply. In this rigorous and illuminating book, Michael Bradshaw explores the key aspects of the current global energy dilemma and examines how it is playing out across the major regions and countries of the world. The book begins by charting the development of the current global energy system - exploring its key characteristics with a focus upon energy security and the relationship between energy, economic development and climate change. The next four chapters offer in-depth analyses of four distinct global energy dilemmas in different parts of the world: the challenge of sustaining affluence and decarbonising energy services in the high-energy economies of the developed world; the legacies of the centrally planned economy and the consequences of liberalisation in the post-socialist world; growing energy demand and emissions growth associated with the emerging regions; and finally, the quest to provide universal access to modern energy services in the developing world in a manner that is both economically and environmentally sustainable. Identifying the governance structures and policy options available to tackle the global energy dilemma, the book concludes that only an integrated approach - sensitive to regional issues - can reconcile the interests and needs of those facing differing energy challenges across the world today.
The Price of Wealth
Author: Kiren Aziz Chaudhry
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 1501700332
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 354
Book Description
The emerging consensus that institutions shape political and economic outcomes has produced few theories of institutional change and no defensible theory of institutional origination. Kiren Aziz Chaudhry shows how state and market institutions are created and transformed in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, two countries that typify labor and oil exporters in the developing worlds.In a world where the international economy dramatically affects domestic developments, the question of where institutions come from becomes at once more urgent and more complex. In both Saudi Arabia and Yemen, fundamental state and market institutions forged during a period of isolation at the end of World War I were destroyed and reshaped not once but three times in response to exogenous shocks.Comparing boom-bust cycles, Chaudhry exposes the alternating social and organizational origins of institutions, arguing that both broad changes in the international economy and specific forms of international integration shape institutional outcomes. Labor and oil exporters thus experience identical economic cycles but generate radically different state, market, and financial institutions in response to different resource flows. Chaudhry supplemented years of field work in Saudi Arabia and Yemen with extensive analysis of previously unavailable materials in the Saudi national archives.
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 1501700332
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 354
Book Description
The emerging consensus that institutions shape political and economic outcomes has produced few theories of institutional change and no defensible theory of institutional origination. Kiren Aziz Chaudhry shows how state and market institutions are created and transformed in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, two countries that typify labor and oil exporters in the developing worlds.In a world where the international economy dramatically affects domestic developments, the question of where institutions come from becomes at once more urgent and more complex. In both Saudi Arabia and Yemen, fundamental state and market institutions forged during a period of isolation at the end of World War I were destroyed and reshaped not once but three times in response to exogenous shocks.Comparing boom-bust cycles, Chaudhry exposes the alternating social and organizational origins of institutions, arguing that both broad changes in the international economy and specific forms of international integration shape institutional outcomes. Labor and oil exporters thus experience identical economic cycles but generate radically different state, market, and financial institutions in response to different resource flows. Chaudhry supplemented years of field work in Saudi Arabia and Yemen with extensive analysis of previously unavailable materials in the Saudi national archives.
OPEC in a Shale Oil World
Author: Mohamed Ramady
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783319223728
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
RAMADy, Mahdi OPec in a sHALE oil world -where to NEXT? With PREFACE by Dr. Sadad Al Husseini , former Board Member and Executive Vice President , Saudi Aramco. "OPEC has played an important role since its founding and continues to do so, but it has to recognize that this role has now changed and the organization has to adapt to new challenges. This book provides some possible solutions" Abdulsamad Al Awadhi, former Kuwait National Representative at OPEC . "Authoritative, well-informed, and excellent account of the role of OPEC in managing the oil market, present, past, and future" Hassan Qabazard, former Director of Research Division , OPEC. ". The call for action by Mohamed Ramady and Wael Mahdy in this book makes it clear that time, and not oil, is the precious commodity that is running out fast on OPEC's side", Sadad Al Husseini , former Board Member and EVP Saudi Aramco "OPEC is dead. Long live OPEC". The organization is now going through a mid life crisis in its 54 years of existence trying to figure out where it goes next in a world where OPEC has been relegated from being the energy swing producer, and Saudi Arabia as the 'Sultan of the Swing,' to one where it now faces competition from both non- OPEC traditional well as non-conventional shale producers. The Authors examine how OPEC has had to come to terms with the reality that the earlier decades 'call on OPEC' has now been replaced by a 'call on non-OPEC' and that a new 'swing' has been identified- the producers of shale oil. Drawing upon the Authors combined academic and practical first hand insights on OPEC, the book discusses how a new OPEC paradigm has emerged following the oil price rout of 2014, whereby the organization's principal concern is now protecting market share, without being in charge unlike earlier fleeting periods of the late 1970's, which brought with it a lasting myth of the OPEC cartel. Mohamed Ramady is Visiting Associate Professor, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Saudi Arabia; Wael Mahdi is Bloomberg OPEC Energy Correspondent. With PREFACE by Dr. Sadad Al Husseini , former Board Member and Executive Vice President , Saudi Aramco. "OPEC has played an important role since its founding and continues to do so, but it has to recognize that this role has now changed and the organization has to adapt to new challenges. This book provides some possible solutions" Abdulsamad Al Awadhi, former Kuwait National Representative at OPEC . "Authoritative, well-informed, and excellent account of the role of OPEC in managing the oil market, present, past, and future" Hassan Qabazard, former Director of Research Division , OPEC. ". The call for action by Mohamed Ramady and Wael Mahdy in this book makes it clear that time, and not oil, is the precious commodity that is running out fast on OPEC's side", Sadad Al Husseini , former Board Member and EVP Saudi Aramco "OPEC is dead. Long live OPEC". The organization is now going through a mid life crisis in its 54 years of existence trying to figure out where it goes next in a world where OPEC has been relegated from being the energy swing producer, and Saudi Arabia as the 'Sultan of the Swing,' to one where it now faces competition from both non- OPEC traditional well as non-conventional shale producers. The Authors examine how OPEC has had to come to terms with the reality that the earlier decades 'call on OPEC' has now been replaced by a 'call on non-OPEC' and that a new 'swing' has been identified- the producers of shale oil. Drawing upon the Authors combined academic and practical first hand insights on OPEC, the book discusses how a new OPEC paradigm has emerged following the oil price rout of 2014, whereby the organization's principal concern is now protecting market share, without being in charge unlike earlier fleeting periods of the late 1970's, which brought with it a lasting myth of the OPEC cartel. Mohamed Ramady is Visiting Associate Professor, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Saudi Arabia; Wael Mahdi is Bloomberg OPEC Energy Correspondent.
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783319223728
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
RAMADy, Mahdi OPec in a sHALE oil world -where to NEXT? With PREFACE by Dr. Sadad Al Husseini , former Board Member and Executive Vice President , Saudi Aramco. "OPEC has played an important role since its founding and continues to do so, but it has to recognize that this role has now changed and the organization has to adapt to new challenges. This book provides some possible solutions" Abdulsamad Al Awadhi, former Kuwait National Representative at OPEC . "Authoritative, well-informed, and excellent account of the role of OPEC in managing the oil market, present, past, and future" Hassan Qabazard, former Director of Research Division , OPEC. ". The call for action by Mohamed Ramady and Wael Mahdy in this book makes it clear that time, and not oil, is the precious commodity that is running out fast on OPEC's side", Sadad Al Husseini , former Board Member and EVP Saudi Aramco "OPEC is dead. Long live OPEC". The organization is now going through a mid life crisis in its 54 years of existence trying to figure out where it goes next in a world where OPEC has been relegated from being the energy swing producer, and Saudi Arabia as the 'Sultan of the Swing,' to one where it now faces competition from both non- OPEC traditional well as non-conventional shale producers. The Authors examine how OPEC has had to come to terms with the reality that the earlier decades 'call on OPEC' has now been replaced by a 'call on non-OPEC' and that a new 'swing' has been identified- the producers of shale oil. Drawing upon the Authors combined academic and practical first hand insights on OPEC, the book discusses how a new OPEC paradigm has emerged following the oil price rout of 2014, whereby the organization's principal concern is now protecting market share, without being in charge unlike earlier fleeting periods of the late 1970's, which brought with it a lasting myth of the OPEC cartel. Mohamed Ramady is Visiting Associate Professor, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Saudi Arabia; Wael Mahdi is Bloomberg OPEC Energy Correspondent. With PREFACE by Dr. Sadad Al Husseini , former Board Member and Executive Vice President , Saudi Aramco. "OPEC has played an important role since its founding and continues to do so, but it has to recognize that this role has now changed and the organization has to adapt to new challenges. This book provides some possible solutions" Abdulsamad Al Awadhi, former Kuwait National Representative at OPEC . "Authoritative, well-informed, and excellent account of the role of OPEC in managing the oil market, present, past, and future" Hassan Qabazard, former Director of Research Division , OPEC. ". The call for action by Mohamed Ramady and Wael Mahdy in this book makes it clear that time, and not oil, is the precious commodity that is running out fast on OPEC's side", Sadad Al Husseini , former Board Member and EVP Saudi Aramco "OPEC is dead. Long live OPEC". The organization is now going through a mid life crisis in its 54 years of existence trying to figure out where it goes next in a world where OPEC has been relegated from being the energy swing producer, and Saudi Arabia as the 'Sultan of the Swing,' to one where it now faces competition from both non- OPEC traditional well as non-conventional shale producers. The Authors examine how OPEC has had to come to terms with the reality that the earlier decades 'call on OPEC' has now been replaced by a 'call on non-OPEC' and that a new 'swing' has been identified- the producers of shale oil. Drawing upon the Authors combined academic and practical first hand insights on OPEC, the book discusses how a new OPEC paradigm has emerged following the oil price rout of 2014, whereby the organization's principal concern is now protecting market share, without being in charge unlike earlier fleeting periods of the late 1970's, which brought with it a lasting myth of the OPEC cartel. Mohamed Ramady is Visiting Associate Professor, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Saudi Arabia; Wael Mahdi is Bloomberg OPEC Energy Correspondent.
Imported Oil and U.S. National Security
Author: Keith Crane
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833047000
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 127
Book Description
Assesses economic, political, and military concerns arising from the United States' dependence on foreign oil.
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833047000
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 127
Book Description
Assesses economic, political, and military concerns arising from the United States' dependence on foreign oil.
Ethical Oil
Author: Ezra Levant
Publisher: McClelland & Stewart
ISBN: 077104643X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 270
Book Description
Canada's "no. 1 defender of freedom of speech" and the bestselling author of Shakedown makes the timely and provocative case that when it comes to oil, ethics matter just as much as the economy and the environment. In 2009, Ezra Levant's bestselling book Shakedown revealed the corruption of Canada's human rights commissions and was declared the "most important public affairs book of the year." In Ethical Oil, Levant turns his attention to another hot-button topic: the ethical cost of our addiction to oil. While many North Americans may be aware of the financial and environmental price we pay for a gallon of gas or a barrel of oil, Levant argues that it is time we consider ethical factors as well. With his trademark candor, Levant asks hard-hitting questions: With the oil sands at our disposal, is it ethically responsible to import our oil from the Sudan, Russia, and Mexico? How should we weigh carbon emissions with human rights violations in Saudi Arabia? And assuming that we can't live without oil, can the development of energy be made more environmentally sustainable? In Ethical Oil, Levant exposes the hypocrisy of the West's dealings with the reprehensible regimes from which we purchase the oil that sustains our lifestyles, and offers solutions to this dilemma. Readers at all points on the political spectrum will want to read this timely and provocative new book, which is sure to spark debate.
Publisher: McClelland & Stewart
ISBN: 077104643X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 270
Book Description
Canada's "no. 1 defender of freedom of speech" and the bestselling author of Shakedown makes the timely and provocative case that when it comes to oil, ethics matter just as much as the economy and the environment. In 2009, Ezra Levant's bestselling book Shakedown revealed the corruption of Canada's human rights commissions and was declared the "most important public affairs book of the year." In Ethical Oil, Levant turns his attention to another hot-button topic: the ethical cost of our addiction to oil. While many North Americans may be aware of the financial and environmental price we pay for a gallon of gas or a barrel of oil, Levant argues that it is time we consider ethical factors as well. With his trademark candor, Levant asks hard-hitting questions: With the oil sands at our disposal, is it ethically responsible to import our oil from the Sudan, Russia, and Mexico? How should we weigh carbon emissions with human rights violations in Saudi Arabia? And assuming that we can't live without oil, can the development of energy be made more environmentally sustainable? In Ethical Oil, Levant exposes the hypocrisy of the West's dealings with the reprehensible regimes from which we purchase the oil that sustains our lifestyles, and offers solutions to this dilemma. Readers at all points on the political spectrum will want to read this timely and provocative new book, which is sure to spark debate.
China's Dilemma
Author: Ligang Song
Publisher: ANU E Press
ISBN: 1921536039
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 446
Book Description
China's Dilemma - Economic Growth, the Environment and Climate Change examines the challenges China will have to confront in order to maintain rapid growth while coping with the global financial turbulence, some rising socially destabilising tensions such as income inequality, an over-exploited environment and the long-term pressures of global warming. China's Dilemma discusses key questions that will have an impact on China's growth path and offers some in-depth analyses as to how China could confront these challenges. The authors address the effect of the global credit crunch and financial shocks on China's economic growth; China's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and emissions reduction schemes; the environmental consequences of foreign direct investment in China; the relationship between air pollution and mortality; the effect of climate change on agricultural output; the coal industry's compliance with tougher regulations; and the constraints water shortages may impose on China's economy. It also emphasises the importance of managing the rising demand for energy to moderate oil price increases and placating domestic and international concerns about global warming. In the thirty years since China started on the path of reform, it has emerged as one of the largest and most dynamic economies in the world. This carries with it the responsibility to balance the requirements of key industries that are driving its development with the need to ensure that its growth is both equitable and sustainable. China's Dilemma highlights key lessons learned from the past thirty years of reform in order to pave the way for balanced and sustained growth in the future.
Publisher: ANU E Press
ISBN: 1921536039
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 446
Book Description
China's Dilemma - Economic Growth, the Environment and Climate Change examines the challenges China will have to confront in order to maintain rapid growth while coping with the global financial turbulence, some rising socially destabilising tensions such as income inequality, an over-exploited environment and the long-term pressures of global warming. China's Dilemma discusses key questions that will have an impact on China's growth path and offers some in-depth analyses as to how China could confront these challenges. The authors address the effect of the global credit crunch and financial shocks on China's economic growth; China's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and emissions reduction schemes; the environmental consequences of foreign direct investment in China; the relationship between air pollution and mortality; the effect of climate change on agricultural output; the coal industry's compliance with tougher regulations; and the constraints water shortages may impose on China's economy. It also emphasises the importance of managing the rising demand for energy to moderate oil price increases and placating domestic and international concerns about global warming. In the thirty years since China started on the path of reform, it has emerged as one of the largest and most dynamic economies in the world. This carries with it the responsibility to balance the requirements of key industries that are driving its development with the need to ensure that its growth is both equitable and sustainable. China's Dilemma highlights key lessons learned from the past thirty years of reform in order to pave the way for balanced and sustained growth in the future.