Monte Carlo Project Risk Analysis and Simulation Software PDF Download
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 320
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 320
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 266
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Book Description
Author: James F. Wright
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780814407165
Category : New business enterprises
Languages : en
Pages : 346
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Book Description
Author: Johnathan Mun
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470620013
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 916
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Book Description
An updated guide to risk analysis and modeling Although risk was once seen as something that was both unpredictable and uncontrollable, the evolution of risk analysis tools and theories has changed the way we look at this important business element. In the Second Edition of Analyzing and Modeling Risk, expert Dr. Johnathan Mun provides up-to-date coverage of risk analysis as it is applied within the realms of business risk analysis and offers an intuitive feel of what risk looks like, as well as the different ways of quantifying it. This Second Edition provides professionals in all industries a more comprehensive guide on such key concepts as risk and return, the fundamentals of model building, Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting, time-series and regression analysis, optimization, real options, and more. Includes new examples, questions, and exercises as well as updates using Excel 2007 Book supported by author's proprietary risk analysis software found on the companion CD-ROM Offers both a qualitative and quantitative description of risk Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this reliable resource covers all of the essential tools and techniques that risk managers need to successfully conduct risk analysis. Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.
Author: Dr David Hulett
Publisher: Gower Publishing, Ltd.
ISBN: 1409459101
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 241
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Book Description
Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.
Author: Enrico Zio
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1447145887
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 204
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Book Description
Monte Carlo simulation is one of the best tools for performing realistic analysis of complex systems as it allows most of the limiting assumptions on system behavior to be relaxed. The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis comprehensively illustrates the Monte Carlo simulation method and its application to reliability and system engineering. Readers are given a sound understanding of the fundamentals of Monte Carlo sampling and simulation and its application for realistic system modeling. Whilst many of the topics rely on a high-level understanding of calculus, probability and statistics, simple academic examples will be provided in support to the explanation of the theoretical foundations to facilitate comprehension of the subject matter. Case studies will be introduced to provide the practical value of the most advanced techniques. This detailed approach makes The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis a key reference for senior undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers and practitioners. It provides a powerful tool for all those involved in system analysis for reliability, maintenance and risk evaluations.
Author: Troy Magennis
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781466454835
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 166
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Book Description
Forecasting and Simulating Software Development Projects explains how to effectively model Kanban and Scrum projects to get accurate forecasts of cost, delivery dates and staff requirements. Modeling using Monte-carlo simulation allows rapid what-if analysis to find options that minimize cost and delivery time, whilst maximizing revenue. Simulation lets you hit target delivery dates, and shows the impact of hiring (or losing) staff with certain skillsets, taking software project leadership to a new level of maturity. Target audience and key takeaways - Project Managers: Understand modeling and forecast projects, and how to simulate those models to answer questions regarding delivery dates, cost, and staffing needs. Development Managers and Team Leads: Understand how to reduce the amount of estimation required for cost and date forecasts, and determining what development events cause the most impact. Executive Leadership: Understand how multiple teams can co-ordinate their forecasts in a methodical way, and provide a consistent approach to risk management and decision making. Venture Capital Investors: Understand how to obtain reliable cost and date forecasts for potential investments and how to compare different software project investment portfolios. Topics include - Simulating Scrum and Kanban project methodologies Forecasting the probability of hitting delivery date & costs Hiring the right team size and skill mix Creating visual animations and videos to sell solutions to others Finding what model inputs are critical to delivery date Effective (and minimal) story estimation and grouping strategies Capturing the project deliverables and story backlog Modeling development events: defects, added scope and blocking events Reverse engineering real-world data to improve model accuracy
Author: David Vose
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470512849
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 754
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Book Description
Risk Analysis concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems.
Author: David Hulett
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1317115295
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 292
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Book Description
Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.
Author: Lev Virine
Publisher: Imperial College Press
ISBN: 9814759392
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 283
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Book Description
Project management is the art of analyzing and managing risks. Without risk, there is little need for project management. Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple offers a step-by-step guide on how to perform project risk analysis and risk management for a wide range of readers: students, project schedulers not exposed to project risk analysis before, and to project risk experts. With this book, you will learn how to:Easily recognizable real-life stories and projects provide a compelling narrative while imparting valuable information on both the theory and practice of project risk management. You will not only understand why project risk management is important to the success of their projects, but you will also know how it can be implemented in your organization and the appropriate tools to use.
