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Author: Robert Flasza
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modelling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modelling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts (namely Phelix Base Fututes with next year's delivery) and prices of long-term futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX. -- electricity futures ; EEX ; ARIMAX ; emission allowances
Author: Robert Flasza
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modelling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modelling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts (namely Phelix Base Fututes with next year's delivery) and prices of long-term futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX. -- electricity futures ; EEX ; ARIMAX ; emission allowances
Author: Rafal Weron
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470059990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 192
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Book Description
This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.
Author: Fred Espen Benth
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812812318
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 352
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Book Description
The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives. This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. OrnsteinOCoUhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice. Sample Chapter(s). A Survey of Electricity and Related Markets (331 KB). Contents: A Survey of Electricity and Related Markets; Stochastic Analysis for Independent Increment Processes; Stochastic Models for the Energy Spot Price Dynamics; Pricing of Forwards and Swaps Based on the Spot Price; Applications to the Gas Markets; Modeling Forwards and Swaps Using the HeathOCoJarrowOCoMorton Approach; Constructing Smooth Forward Curves in Electricity Markets; Modeling of the Electricity Futures Market; Pricing and Hedging of Energy Options; Analysis of Temperature Derivatives. Readership: Researchers in energy and commodity markets, and mathematical finance.
Author: Dominik Möst
Publisher: KIT Scientific Publishing
ISBN: 3866442386
Category : Electric utilities
Languages : en
Pages : 142
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Book Description
Author: Jean-Michel Glachant
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 184980480X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 335
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Book Description
This book fills a gap in the existing literature by dealing with several issues linked to long-term contracts and the efficiency of electricity markets. These include the impact of long-term contracts and vertical integration on effective competition, generation investment in risky markets, and the challenges for competition policy principles. On the one hand, long-term contracts may contribute to lasting generation capability by allowing for a more efficient allocation of risk. On the other hand, they can create conditions for imperfect competition and thus impair short-term efficiency. The contributors – prominent academics and policy experts with inter-disciplinary perspectives – develop fresh theoretical and practical insights on this important concern for current electricity markets. This highly accessible book will strongly appeal to both academic and professional audiences including scholars of industrial, organizational and public sector economics, and competition and antitrust law. It will also be of value to regulatory and antitrust authorities, governmental policymakers, and consultants in electricity law and economics.
Author: Athanasios Dagoumas
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128218398
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 444
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Book Description
Mathematical Modelling of Contemporary Electricity Markets reviews major methodologies and tools to accurately analyze and forecast contemporary electricity markets in a ways that is ideal for practitioner and academic audiences. Approaches include optimization, neural networks, genetic algorithms, co-optimization, econometrics, E3 models and energy system models. The work examines how new challenges affect power market modeling, including discussions of stochastic renewables, price volatility, dynamic participation of demand, integration of storage and electric vehicles, interdependence with other commodity markets and the evolution of policy developments (market coupling processes, security of supply). Coverage addresses all major forms of electricity markets: day-ahead, forward, intraday, balancing, and capacity. Provides a diverse body of established techniques suitable for modeling any major aspect of electricity markets Familiarizes energy experts with the quantitative skills needed in competitive electricity markets Reviews market risk for energy investment decisions by stressing the multi-dimensionality of electricity markets
Author: Kevin Berk
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783658086701
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a daily, weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence, forecasting electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all market participants. Contents Electricity Market Energy Economy in Enterprises Time Series Analysis A one Factor Model for medium-term Load Forecasting Retail Contract Evaluation and Pricing MATLAB Implementation Target Groups Researchers and students in energy economics or mathematics and statistics with a focus on applications in energy markets Professionals in electricity utilities, energy vendors, risk management The Author Kevin Berk is a Ph.D. student at the Mathematics Department of the University Siegen, Germany. His major research focus is risk management and time series models with applications in energy markets.
Author: Nicolai Westsee
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3656620997
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
Seminar paper from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 2,0, University of Hannover, language: English, abstract: The main goal of this term paper is to give an overview about differences within the European market and their advantages and disadvantages. Additionally the historical development of energy markets and the future perspective, influenced by the development of the renewables shall be pointed out. The next part, after this introduction, is about the historical development of the electric power market in Europe with a focus on the German market liberalization. In section three, the two different market models Open-Market model and Pool-Market model are discussed. After an explanation and a comparison of the two models, the trend towards renewables is taken into account. The focus lays on the development, the integration into the different existing electricity-markets in Germany and Spain and on their impacts on these markets. Based on a study of Makkonen et al. from 2012, published in the journal Energy Policy an extensive outlook in future requirements, changes and possibilities of the development of a single European Electricity Market, this term paper will be concluded.
Author: Alfredo Trespalacios
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Energy purchases/sales in liberalized markets are subject to price and quantity uncertainty, which should be jointly modeled by relaxing the unreliable normality assumption for capturing risk. In this paper, we consider the spot price and energy generation to follow a bivariate semi-nonparametric distribution defined in terms of the Gram-Charlier expansion. This distribution allows to jointly model not only mean, variance, and correlation, but also skewness, kurtosis, and higher-order moments. Based on this model, we propose a static hedging strategy for electricity generators that participate in a competitive market where hedging is carried out through forward contracts that include a risk premium in their valuation. For this purpose, we use Monte Carlo simulation and consider information from the Colombian electricity market as the case study. The results show that the volume of energy to be sold under long-term contracts depends on each electricity generator and the risk assessment made by the market in the Forward Risk Premium. The conditions of skewness, kurtosis, and correlation, as well as the type of risk indicator to be employed, affect the hedging strategy that each electricity generator should implement.
Author: Tiago Pinto
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128226668
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 474
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Book Description
Local Electricity Markets introduces the fundamental characteristics, needs, and constraints shaping the design and implementation of local electricity markets. It addresses current proposed local market models and lessons from their limited practical implementation. The work discusses relevant decision and informatics tools considered important in the implementation of local electricity markets. It also includes a review on management and trading platforms, including commercially available tools. Aspects of local electricity market infrastructure are identified and discussed, including physical and software infrastructure. It discusses the current regulatory frameworks available for local electricity market development internationally. The work concludes with a discussion of barriers and opportunities for local electricity markets in the future. Delineates key components shaping the design and implementation of local electricity market structure Provides a coherent view on the enabling infrastructures and technologies that underpin local market expansion Explores the current regulatory environment for local electricity markets drawn from a global panel of contributors Exposes future paths toward widespread implementation of local electricity markets using an empirical review of barriers and opportunities Reviews relevant local electricity market case studies, pilots and demonstrators already deployed and under implementation
