Methodology for the Assessment of the Proliferation Resistance of Nuclear Power Systems, Topical Report PDF Download
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Author: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Energy Laboratory
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 128
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Book Description
Author: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Energy Laboratory
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 128
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Energy Laboratory
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Nuclear disarmament
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This report describes a framework for proliferation resistance and physical protection evaluation for the fuel cycle systems envisioned in the expansion of nuclear power for electricity generation. The methodology is based on an approach developed as part of the Generation IV technical evaluation framework and on a qualitative evaluation approach to policy factors similar to those that were introduced in previous Nonproliferation Impact Assessments performed by DOE.
Author: R. BARI
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 9
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Book Description
This paper provides an overview of the methodology approach developed by the Generation IV International Forum Expert Group on Proliferation Resistance & Physical Protection for evaluation of Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection robustness of Generation IV nuclear energy systems options. The methodology considers a set of alternative systems and evaluates their resistance or robustness to a collection of potential threats. For the challenges considered, the response of the system to these challenges is assessed and expressed in terms of outcomes. The challenges to the system are given by the threats posed by potential proliferant States and sub-national adversaries on the nuclear systems. The characteristics of the Generation IV systems, both technical and institutional, are used to evaluate their response to the threats and determine their resistance against the proliferation threats and robustness against sabotage and theft threats. System response encompasses three main elements: (1) System Element Identification. The nuclear energy system is decomposed into smaller elements (subsystems) at a level amenable to further analysis. (2) Target Identification and Categorization. A systematic process is used to identify and select representative targets for different categories of pathways, within each system element, that actors (proliferant States or adversaries) might choose to use or attack. (3) Pathway Identification and Refinement. Pathways are defined as potential sequences of events and actions followed by the proliferant State or adversary to achieve its objectives (proliferation, theft or sabotage). For each target, individual pathway segments are developed through a systematic process, analyzed at a high level, and screened where possible. Segments are connected into full pathways and analyzed in detail. The outcomes of the system response are expressed in terms of PR & amp;PP measures. Measures are high-level characteristics of a pathway that include information important to the evaluation methodology users and to the decisions of a proliferant State or adversary. They are first evaluated for segments and then aggregated for complete pathways. Results are aggregated as appropriate to permit pathway comparisons and system assessment. The paper highlights the current achievements in the development of the Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection Evaluation Methodology. The way forward is also briefly presented together with some conclusions.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This paper provides an overview of the methodology approach developed by the Generation IV International Forum Expert Group on Proliferation Resistance & Physical Protection for evaluation of Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection robustness of Generation IV nuclear energy systems options. The methodology considers a set of alternative systems and evaluates their resistance or robustness to a collection of potential threats. For the challenges considered, the response of the system to these challenges is assessed and expressed in terms of outcomes. The challenges to the system are given by the threats posed by potential proliferant States and sub-national adversaries on the nuclear systems. The characteristics of the Generation IV systems, both technical and institutional, are used to evaluate their response to the threats and determine their resistance against the proliferation threats and robustness against sabotage and theft threats. System response encompasses three main elements: 1. System Element Identification. The nuclear energy system is decomposed into smaller elements (subsystems) at a level amenable to further analysis. 2. Target Identification and Categorization. A systematic process is used to identify and select representative targets for different categories of pathways, within each system element, that actors (proliferant States or adversaries) might choose to use or attack. 3. Pathway Identification and Refinement. Pathways are defined as potential sequences of events and actions followed by the proliferant State or adversary to achieve its objectives (proliferation, theft or sabotage). For each target, individual pathway segments are developed through a systematic process, analyzed at a high level, and screened where possible. Segments are connected into full pathways and analyzed in detail. The outcomes of the system response are expressed in terms of PR & PP measures. Measures are high-level characteristics of a pathway that include information important to the evaluation methodology users and to the decisions of a proliferant State or adversary. They are first evaluated for segments and then aggregated for complete pathways. Results are aggregated as appropriate to permit pathway comparisons and system assessment. The paper highlights the current achievements in the development of the Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection Evaluation Methodology. The way forward is also briefly presented together with some conclusions.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We present an overview of the program on the evaluation methodology for proliferation resistance and physical protection (PR & PP) of advanced nuclear energy systems (NESs) sponsored by the Generation IV International Forum (GIF). For a proposed NES design, the methodology defines a set of challenges, analyzes system response to these challenges, and assesses outcomes. The challenges to the NES are the threats posed by potential actors (proliferant States or sub-national adversaries). The characteristics of Generation IV systems, both technical and institutional, are used to evaluate the response of the system and to determine its resistance against proliferation threats and robustness against sabotage and terrorism threats. The outcomes of the system response are expressed in terms of a set of measures, which are the high-level PR & PP characteristics of the NES. The methodology is organized to allow evaluations to be performed at the earliest stages of system design and to become more detailed and more representative as the design progresses. It can thus be used to enable a program in safeguards by design or to enhance the conceptual design process of an NES with regard to intrinsic features for PR & PP.
Author:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
An overview of the technical progress and accomplishments on the evaluation methodology for proliferation resistance and physical protection of Generation IV nuclear energy Systems.
Author: Hyeongpil Ham
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 328
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Book Description
In order to evaluate the probability value of the diversion success, the study has provided: three top-level proliferation resistance measures addressing the inherent features of the system; a hypothesized safeguards approach for the system and a set of the plausible concealment tactics of the proliferator; an expert elicitation approach for evaluation of key model inputs; identification of the most attractive diversion pathway; uncertainty propagation of experts' inputs, sensitivity analyses of an ultimate outcome to input variables, and importance analyses of minimal path sets of success trees. Consequently, the study showed that the proposed methodology is an effective evaluation tool for comparison of advanced nuclear systems in terms of proliferation resistance. In addition, some limitations of the study and future work were also determined.
Author: Geoffrey R. Bull
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Author: L. Y. CHANG
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 9
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Book Description
The Technology Goals for Generation IV nuclear energy systems highlight Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR & PP) as one of the four goal areas for Generation 1V nuclear technology. Accordingly, an evaluation methodology is being developed by a PR & PP Experts Group. This paper presents a possible approach, which is based on Markov modeling, to the evaluation methodology for Generation IV nuclear energy systems being developed for PR & PP. Using the Markov model, a variety of proliferation scenarios can be constructed and the proliferation resistance measures can be quantified, particularly the probability of detection. To model the system with increased fidelity, the Markov model is further developed to incorporate multiple safeguards approaches in this paper. The approach to the determination of the associated parameters is presented. Evaluations of diversion scenarios for an example sodium fast reactor (ESFR) energy system are used to illustrate the methodology. The Markov model is particularly useful because it can provide the probability density function of the time it takes for the effort to be detected at a specific stage of the proliferation effort.
