Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions PDF full book. Access full book title Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions by Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475559194
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Get Book Here
Book Description
The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda’s (2005) local projection methodology, we find that cumulative fiscal multipliers related to output, employment and unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to reduce public debt burdens should proceed gradually if economic activity remains below trend for a prolonged period.
Author: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475559194
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Get Book Here
Book Description
The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda’s (2005) local projection methodology, we find that cumulative fiscal multipliers related to output, employment and unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to reduce public debt burdens should proceed gradually if economic activity remains below trend for a prolonged period.
Author: Maria Elkhdari
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484360818
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
Get Book Here
Book Description
At a time when Algeria must undertake considerable fiscal consolidation to restore sustainability, the issue of fiscal multipliers has come to the fore. This paper estimates short-term and long-term fiscal multipliers for Algeria applying several econometric methodologies, including Local Projection Methodology and Vector Autoregressive Models, and using both Algeria-specific and panel data. The paper also explores asymmetries related to the sign of the output gap as well as the direction of spending. The results suggest that (i) average fiscal multipliers for Algeria are generally moderate and below unity; (ii) the impact of public spending shocks is more important when the output gap is negative; (iii) fiscal spending multipliers are significantly larger during spending contraction than expansion; (iv) procyclicality in public spending does not appear to affect output, except for capital spending cuts when the output gap is negative; and (v) while multipliers associated with countercyclical public spending can be sizeable, a contraction in current spending does not materially affect non-oil GDP.
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484320972
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 129
Get Book Here
Book Description
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recovered relative to 2016, but the momentum is weak and per capita incomes are expected to barely increase. Further, vulnerabilities have risen in many countries, adding to the urgency of implementing the fiscal consolidations planned in most countries and with stepped up efforts to strengthen growth.
Author: Mr.Antonio David
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475588283
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper presents estimates of fiscal multipliers in Paraguay following different econometric techniques and identification approaches. The results point to multipliers for capital expenditure that are substantially higher than multipliers for current expenditure. In addition, the evidence suggests that tax multipliers are close to zero when using conventional identification approaches, but estimates can be much larger when considering the “narrative” approach. One implication of the results is that the balanced budget multiplier for Paraguay i.e. the effect of on output of an increase in expenditures (in particular capital expenditure) financed by taxes is likely to be positive.
Author: Patrick Blagrave
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484352416
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Get Book Here
Book Description
Are fiscal spillovers today as large as they were during the global financial crisis? How do they depend on economic and policy conditions? This note informs the debate on the cross-border impact of fiscal policy on economic activity, shedding light on the magnitude and the factors affecting transmission, such as the fiscal instruments used, cyclical positions, monetary policy conditions, and exchange rate regimes. The note assesses spillovers from five major advanced economies (France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) on 55 advanced and emerging market economies that represent 85 percent of global output, looking at government-spending and tax revenue shocks during expansion and consolidation episodes. It finds that fiscal spillovers are economically significant in the presence of slack and/or accommodative monetary policy—and considerably smaller otherwise, which suggests that spillovers are large when domestic multipliers are also large. It also finds that spillovers from government-spending shocks are larger and more persistent than those from tax shocks and that transmission may be stronger among countries with fixed exchange rates. The evidence suggests that although spillovers from fiscal policies in the current environment may not be as large as they were during the crisis, they may still be important under certain economic circumstances.
Author: Francisco Arizala
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484333594
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990–2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those in advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising revenue. Episodes of fiscal consolidation have short- and medium-term output effects, but here, too, composition matters: fiscal consolidations based on reducing public investment have the largest effect on output, while fiscal consolidations based on revenue mobilization are less harmful than those based on public investment cuts. These findings suggest that the negative impact on growth can be mitigated through the design of fiscal adjustment and the accompanying policy environment.
Author: Mr.Jiro Honda
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513537318
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 23
Get Book Here
Book Description
Would population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus? Despite the renewed focus on population aging, there are few empirical studies on the output effects of fiscal policy in aging economies. Our study fills this gap by analyzing this issue in OECD countries. We find that, as population ages, the output effects of fiscal spending shocks are weakened. We also find that, while high-debt countries generally face weaker fiscal multipliers, high-debt aging economies face even weaker multipliers. These results point to important policy implications: population aging would call for a larger fiscal stimulus to support aggregate demand during recession and thus require larger fiscal space to allow a wider swing of the fiscal position without creating concerns for fiscal sustainability. Our analysis also suggests that policy measures to promote labor supply could help increase the output effect of fiscal stimulus in aging economies.
Author: Joshua E Greene
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9811209952
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 538
Get Book Here
Book Description
Drawing from current examples from a variety of countries, Public Finance: An International Perspective addresses the main issues in contemporary public finance, including fiscal sustainability, state enterprises, and a variety of subsidies. There are relatively few textbooks on public finance, and many of them focus on the experience and issues facing the United States. This book sets out to address the critical issues from other countries, particularly those from the developing world or emerging market countries, who have received less attention in other texts. Written in a highly accessible manner, this book is a useful reference for students and practitioners alike.
Author: Mr.Tigran Poghosyan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484304373
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 37
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper revisits the issue of cross-country spillovers from fiscal consolidations using an innovative empirical methodology. We find evidence in support of fiscal spillovers in 10 euro area countries. Fiscal consolidation in one country not only reduces domestic output (direct effect), but also the output of other member countries (indirect/spillover effect). Fiscal spillovers are larger for: (i) more closely located and economically integrated countries, and (ii) fiscal shocks originating from relatively larger countries. On average, 1 percent of GDP fiscal consolidation in 10 euro area countries reduces the combined output by 0.6 percent on impact, out of which half is driven by indirect effects from fiscal spillovers. The impact peters out and becomes insignificant over the medium-term. It is largely driven by tax measures, which have a relatively stronger effect on output compared to expenditure measures. The results are robust to alternative measures of bilateral links across countries.
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513508547
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 175
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper discusses Republic of Congo’s Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The Republic of Congo’s ECF program supports the authorities’ efforts to restore fiscal sustainability and rebuild regional reserves while improving governance and protecting vulnerable groups. The Congolese authorities have stepped up efforts in 2018 and 2019 to address the economic crisis and the associated governance challenges. The ECF-supported program aims to help the Republic of Congo restore macroeconomic stability, including debt sustainability, and lay the foundations for higher and more inclusive growth. It also seeks to improve governance to achieve greater efficiency and transparency in the management of public resources, especially in the oil sector. The Fund-supported program is expected to contribute positively to the regional strategy and stability efforts of the Central African Economic and Monetary Union. The report also highlights that it is key to promote the productivity of factor inputs by increasing investments in human capital.
